Even if Democrats obtain a critical mass of voters who aren't embarrassed to hold a screwdriver (or look down upon those who do), you can't get around the fact that most of what blue collar people do is involved in building real things. With that, you can't get around the critical mass of neurotic bureaucrats, lawyers, and administrators who have a death grip on blue state regulatory policy and are a primary client class of the Democratic Party.
I think that the best bet is for the Abundance Bro types to split off as a 3rd party and possibly snag a portion of the working class that Trump gained in 2024. The comment below from Noah Smith's recent article says it best. This quote is relevant to 99% of the content on this substack.
"When it costs 10x more to build subway in NY than it does in Seoul, these are the people who are getting the extra 9x. These people are overwhelmingly Democrats and make up a major constituency in the party. As much as I agree with the "abundance agenda" (or at least most of it) I don't think it's going to be possible without a solution to this fundamental political problem within the Democratic party, and I haven't heard one yet."
You committed one of the sins you warned against or perhaps you were just accurately representing the attitudes of Harris voters. The notion that Harris voters cared about "democracy" while accurate is also condescending in the extreme. Trump voters not only care about it but view the Democrats as profoundly undemocratic. Cancel culture, lawfare, weaponization of law enforcement against such groups as concerned parents and traditional Catholics, , the various machinations of the Intelligence Community and censorship are all profoundly undemocratic and have convinced many that Democrats cannot be trusted to uphold democracy. I don't know if you read Sasha Stone who often appears next to you in RCP but she has much the same analysis as you as to what ails the Democratic Party but is convinced it can't be fixed and has fully defected. I have her NYT interview queued up to listen to on my drive today.
President Erdogan of Turkey famously said, "Democracy is like a streetcar. Once you ride it to where you want to go, you can get off."
(Ironically, right now in Turkey, there is a mass popular movement to restore democracy and kick Erdogan out of his effective Presidency-for-life.)
Meanwhile, all throughout the Western world, we see the same mindset expressed in different words. In the US, Democrats, especially Progressives, claim to be concerned about threats to democracy - but they define those threats as voters showing the audacity to vote for candidates other than Progressives and Democrats. Their preferred approach to defend their idea of democracy is to do everything in their power to prevent those other candidates from getting on the ballot and to delegitimize their election victories. After all, they argue, it can't really be democracy if they aren't winning.
If you look at history, you find this "only our democracy counts" attitude among totalitarian political movements. It often acts as the spark of anti-democratic revolution.
"Cancel culture, lawfare, weaponization of law enforcement against such groups as concerned parents and traditional Catholics, , the various machinations of the Intelligence Community and censorship are all profoundly undemocratic and have convinced many that Democrats cannot be trusted to uphold democracy."
...This is clearly incorrect, given the complete lack of outcry at Trump's engagement in these very same tactics by Trump voters. If they cared about this stuff, they'd be vocalizing it en masse in response to things like the Paul Weiss affair, or the lawsuits against media organizations. Or the disappearance of people off the street in broad daylight by federal agents.
But, instead, they've collectively shrugged their shoulders at all this--which leads one to believe that the prevailing accusation by MAGA's critics is largely true: that it is largely a populist movement based around strongman politics animated by cultural grievance, not a democratic movement animated by (small l) liberal principles. It is naught but a mirror-image of wokeness, but one in complete denial about its illiberal nature.
Appreciate this article. Want to say some more about it later (but I'm off on a walk with my wife....telling you this because I know you'll be interested).
But have to comment on one piece of data introduced....Reuben Gallego. We live in Arizona. Life-long Democrats. The reason he won was not so much about any of his positions, as stated in the article, but was because Arizonians are sick of Kari Lake (his opponent). Even Republicans. We didn't vote for either of them. Gallego changed his tune for the election. Before the election he was a self-described Progressive, and we don't vote for Progressives. He also trashed Kristen Sinema, who we adored because she was a centrist who could work with everybody (the way all Senators should do).
OK. Off on our walk. We want to catch the dawning of the day.
The Dems need to reverse their policies on Israel, Iran, immigration, sex based rights, and crime if they want me back as a voter. They also need to take antisemitism as seriously as they take all other forms of bigotry (their pandering to Jihadis has terrified me - I do not trust the Dems to keep us safe from harm). They won't do it - the academic professional class is holding them hostage, and would rather lose than compromise their "values".
Good article. You keep trying to communicate to the Democrats what they need to do but I don’t think they are ready to listen. They are still in denial and anger phase and not ready to begin to build. Building takes some intellectual capacity and that seems still muted. How do I know 1) the focus on AOC and Sanders and 2) the volcanic anger at Schumer for doing what was the logical thing given the choices.
I have been railing against AOC since she began making headlines as the face and voice of the opposition. I am a centrist Democrat. AOC’s huge load of progressive baggage and her Bronx vibes make her toxic west of the Hudson. And Bernie? An angry old socialist with a 1950s TV Brooklyn accent? Double poison.
I am a centrist too but I want a party that has an upper management that is actually democratic for a change. And Bernie, despite his flaws is absolutely right about the Biden administration being a failure in meeting the needs of workers vs the economic elites
Right. They’ll keep deciding to dump the Democratic Party when it runs kook progressive ideas. Biden let in an absurd amount of progressives into his administration, with their genius first day trans participation in female sports, their deep support for antisemitism and other heavily unpopular moves. And Trump ran on those things and won.
While progressives love losing elections to keep the purity of their stupidity, centrists and liberals want to govern.
Voters had little to do with the selection of Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024. Party bosses did both of the anointments, ignoring primaries in 2020 and simply not having them in 2024.
The above precise political analysis is always fascinating, but if Dems do not stop dividing Americans by every metric possible, a recovery would seem unlikely. Dems should be asking what Dem policies are improving the lives of the majority of Americans, and what policies are harming their living standards. Then, Dems should be honest about the last 4 years.
If importing 10 million unvetted, mostly impoverished and sparsely educated migrants, improved the lives of Blue Collar Americans, Dems should be all over media explaining how it did so, or they should admit their mistake, and state how they intend to rectify it.
Likewise, if increasing federal spending by 47% benefited Americans in the bottom 4 quintiles of US earners, tell us how, or admit the error, and explain how Dems would govern differently, next time around.
If Climate Change is still Job No. 1 for Dems, explain how it will coexist with AI power requirements , while improving the living standards of Americans.
If Dems have a plan to combat the massive education failure, produced on their watch. Explain it.
Finally, if Dems hope to get back in the game, the adults should return home. AOC is leading the pack for 2028? What is her slogan , " I drove thousands of jobs from my district, I can do the same where you live, too!".
Jasmine Crockett is the new Dem standard- bearer? She has repeatedly called for Ted Cruz's head to be smashed, while she publicly pokes fun at Greg Abbott's wheelchair? There is not a single Dem with a physically challenged child, niece, nephew or God Child, with the fortitude to stand up and call for consequences? There are Dem former military members, who left limbs on the battlefield, they are OK with a Dem party piloted by Mean Girls? Trump may crash and burn so badly, Dems can avoid wholesale change, but I wouldn't bet on it.
This is absolutely right. BOTH parties have a massive "managerial" problem, with way too many of the insiders, consultants, and elites coming from the Ivy League and/or being a part of the managerial class---which, following its necessary and valuable victory in the late 1800s in industry---has now become a cancer in America. Managerial elites in both parties think they know better, that the answers are always in the "messaging" or the numbers," and are always at the tip of the woke spear.
I would hesitate to cite Galleo as evidence of anything. I'm in AZ. The AZ election of gov in 2020 and senator in 2024 were driven to a large degree by the dying McCain machine that hates Trump and Lake. Kimberlee Yee, in 2020, got 100,000 more votes for TREASURER than Lake did for Gov. In other words, 100,000 spiteful McCain voters wouldn't vote for her. That won't happen with Andy Biggs for the Senate or for a non-Lake candidate, and as 2024 proved Trump now owns AZ. The GOP here has moved from a 5% statewide advantage to 7.2%, as Gallego will find if he ever tries for reelection. I can't find many other "working class" Democrats. Certainly not Buttigieg or Walz.
Trump “owns” the border states, that’s all. You guys are smart enough to see what a ship show this senile fool is doing to the country and AZ will continue to trend left as long as they listen to the liberal patriot!
Want to say more at the section on Attitudinal analysis.
I was a psychologist, my wife was in law enforcement her entire career. A LOT of her work toward the end of her career was counseling-related for kids on probation.
What we believe was sorely missing for Progressives was in regards to the Attitudinal analysis, and in particular how to change peoples' attitudes.
What we saw in the two years leading up to the election was 180 degrees opposite of how a therapist works with clients to help them see better ways and to change their attitudes.
Still seeing that. Look at the number of articles and comments to articles that use the term "fight." Dems must "fight" Trump. Schumer should have "fought" Trump on the budget.
Show me a therapist who fights with her/his client to get change, and I'll show you a therapist who has only one client in his life.....none of the subsequent potential ones would ever go near her/him.
"Low information voters." Does that kind of thing persuade people? Deplorables?
And it was over and over and over. Putdown after putdown.
Use the strategies therapists have developed over the years to address Trump voters' attitudes. Don't POUND it into them.
Schumer did the right thing, for example, therapeutically. For people to change their attitudes toward Trump they have to come to that change on their own.....not by Progressives lecturing to them about how stupid they are to not see it. They have to "hit bottom" and see that the reason their lives haven't gotten better is that Trump failed them.......NOT that Progressives stood in his way. Psychologically Schumer's strategy was the best.
And now there are howls to replace Schumer, and calls for him to resign. Big article in the NYT this morning from the former editor of the LA Times who resigned because her paper wouldn't endorse Harris (as if that would have made a bit of difference because, as we know, millions upon millions of voters look to liberal papers to determine how to vote---NOT). Calling on Schumer to resign because he wouldn't go to the mat like she did and accomplished nothing.
People want to "FIGHT" with Trump voters. It creates an internal good feeling. And that's what we saw that a lot of progressives were after---that warm internal glow.
Psychologically people enjoy fighting. In wars fighting leads to victory. But it doesn't in social relationships, in marriages, in childrearing, in business, in religions, etc.
You don't win by fighting. You win by understanding the other person, taking them seriously 100%, and gently persuading them.
I have a self-awarded PHD in liberal studies having lived in CA in a liberal college town for the last 45 years. I know my liberal neighbors like the back of my hand.
This is a class hierarchy bias issue. Why did my liberal progressive friends pursue their upper level degrees at the most prestigious institution they could be accept in? For most of them it was not because of any burning pursuit to learn to do something productive. It was to help them fill the gaps in self-worth and low productive talent that they uncovered in their youth. It was a pursuit of theirs to fill a need to be moved higher on the social dominance hierarchy... something that they would struggle to do launching into the economy to compete with others on their productive merit.
They got their advanced degrees and like birds of a feather, they all flocked together... they moved to places where like-minded people lived, and they joined together to make sure they formed a united front to prevent any threat to their perceived status.
They hate the working class. They hate the working class just as they would hate their old B-average school mate captain of the Lacrosse team that owns a large plumbing contractor business or four car dealerships and enjoys an upper class life. They never had the right stuff to do those things. They had to stay in school longer to get their impressive academic credentials to satiate their feeling of inadequacy.
The rage we see from them against Trump and the efforts to improve the socioeconomic circumstances for the bottom 80% isn't that they disagree with it actually helping those 80%, it is that don't welcome that help. They don't want the competition for class status. They feels they are on top of the pyramid and they want to keep punching down those that might climb up to challenge them.
This is also why they push for policies that lock low-income people into poverty.
They are not well.
They need to be knocked off their perch and taught to pick up a hammer and go build something.
I am such an oddball, altho I often say I'm normal... I have my master's degree, I was a social worker, as a family therapist, before retiring from that, then owned my own business. I've been a volunteer for a variety of agencies my entire adult life because I learned that from my parents who were both volunteers. Mom was Christian/so mixed marriage. My dad was a Jewish Republican who was in politics - yep, another oddball, he was recruited by the Dem's of the state to run for governor, but 'respectfully' declined that offer... in my undergraduate yrs, when I was a newbie voter, McGovern - ha! - wrote my dad a loooong letter of rah, rah - he wrote 1 paragraph, respectfully, back, that explained his beliefs distinctly (wish I would have kept it!!). After that, I've been a voting R or Independent ever since. Even in graduate school, there were probably only 2 of us R's in a sea of liberal social work students AND staff. I have some stories about that, but I won't go there now... Just pointing out I don't fit the stats - educated, female, employed (previously) in a liberal field, only 1 time in my teen yrs voting as a dem... I cannot imagine voting dem. I have 3 sons, w/ their families, 1 lives in CA, 1 in OR, & the info of dem influence on those states is depressing. Talk about "Atlas Shrugged". CA is losing more & more taxpayers, their budget is really, repeat, really in trouble. A lot of dems and their businesses are leaving & going to red states - sure hope they know why!!! & don't bring their politics w/ them, 'cause I live in one of the states they're coming to.
little side note here re: mixed marriages... told my boys when they were young, the best thing to do to help reduce prejudice was to intermarry. One son married a Chinese woman. My brother is married to a Korean. So that also incorporates the idea of immigration... my dad's parents, separately immigrated, & it was extremely important to them to learn English & assimilate. So legal immigration, assimilation! BTW, one place I volunteered for was Adult Literacy. Some of our clients were legal immigrants who wanted to pass their citizenship exam. They were so proud when they did so!!! Another BTW, imo, every graduating high school senior should be required to pass that. Wow, this has gotten long... only 'cause I'm such an oddball
Great article and I'm thankful. The high point of many elections for me is when Catalist posts it's breakdown, I do love numbers.
In a way occupational analysis is also fairly cut and dried, less "feelings" than maybe in an attitudinal look at things.
One thing that stuck out for me when looking at and trying to figure out the graphic was the city/country divide. It looks like both parties are heavily dependent on cities and the burbs.
Somewhere I was reading lately about the senate race that shifted furthest to the left. Not that we won, but the senate race that had the largest split from the presidential race. It was that guy running as an independent in bright red Nebraska. A pipefitter as I remember, union organiser. He reminded me of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez who is also genuine, with strong ties to the working class and her district, and badly in need of a way to shorten her name.
Occupation is maybe more important to blue collar than to professionals in that if your job disappears, it's hard to switch occupations at the same pay level. Drywalling or concrete flatwork takes a couple years to get good at and longer to make the connections to secure steady work. Roofers don't easily switch to plumbing. Most blue collar workers when their occupation is wiped out due to immigration switch to things that pay a lot less. Unemployment and then Walmart or delivery.
Agree 100%. Deb Fisher (Nebraska Senator) had a surprisingly close race against (private) union leader and independent candidate Dan Osborn.. She won her last race by 20 points and he came within 5+ points.
The operative word in your post is private. Public unions are profoundly different from private ones. Democrats need to cultivate the latter. What to do about the public sector unions the comprise such a large part of the base is tricky. They are most unlikely to defect to Republicans but they could just check out. We are seeing a revolt of that class right now that may morph into a complete takeover.
Somewhere else here I commented that Democrats need to help with a better and younger sort of union leader that can connect better with the members. If the Age of Trump has proved anything, it is that money doesn't talk like it used to.
If the Dems work hard to bring in the New Democrats, we shall call them, what happens to the old rich elite ones? Could they even tolerate the new ones and the policies it takes to widen their tent? Will they lose more members/supporters than they gain? The Republicans are well on their way into their transition. I can’t see the Dems being able to do the same thing.
"A few years back, Verdant Labs produced a fascinating graphic depiction of the intersection of occupation and political affiliation (as measured by donations to the two political parties using F.E.C. data). Some heavily Republican industries and fields include fossil fuels (89 percent R), farming and forestry (72 percent R), insurance (66 percent R), and the military (60 percent R). Some heavily Democratic ones include the legal profession (73 percent D), foodservice (70 percent D), medical services (61 percent D), and IT (74 percent D). Notably, some sectors such as transportation show different partisan splits depending on what a person’s position is within that field. For example, truck and delivery drivers trend heavily Republican while locomotive engineers and taxi drivers are more Democratic."
This is fascinating if accurate! Some of the correlations are obvious (i.e. 89 percent R in the fossil fuels profession) but why would truck and delivery drivers lean R and locomotive engineers and taxi drivers lean D?
Ezra Klein in his interview with Santi Ruiz makes the point that there is a need for civil service reform that would make it easier to bring talented people into the government for special projects. He suggests that the Republicans could have staffed up the Department of Education with people who would support a conservative educational agenda. Instead, they decide to try to abolish the Department.
Even if Democrats obtain a critical mass of voters who aren't embarrassed to hold a screwdriver (or look down upon those who do), you can't get around the fact that most of what blue collar people do is involved in building real things. With that, you can't get around the critical mass of neurotic bureaucrats, lawyers, and administrators who have a death grip on blue state regulatory policy and are a primary client class of the Democratic Party.
I think that the best bet is for the Abundance Bro types to split off as a 3rd party and possibly snag a portion of the working class that Trump gained in 2024. The comment below from Noah Smith's recent article says it best. This quote is relevant to 99% of the content on this substack.
"When it costs 10x more to build subway in NY than it does in Seoul, these are the people who are getting the extra 9x. These people are overwhelmingly Democrats and make up a major constituency in the party. As much as I agree with the "abundance agenda" (or at least most of it) I don't think it's going to be possible without a solution to this fundamental political problem within the Democratic party, and I haven't heard one yet."
The democrat brand is fundamentally anti-growth. Climate demands it.
Smith rocks he’s one of those economists that has real insight on today’s world
You committed one of the sins you warned against or perhaps you were just accurately representing the attitudes of Harris voters. The notion that Harris voters cared about "democracy" while accurate is also condescending in the extreme. Trump voters not only care about it but view the Democrats as profoundly undemocratic. Cancel culture, lawfare, weaponization of law enforcement against such groups as concerned parents and traditional Catholics, , the various machinations of the Intelligence Community and censorship are all profoundly undemocratic and have convinced many that Democrats cannot be trusted to uphold democracy. I don't know if you read Sasha Stone who often appears next to you in RCP but she has much the same analysis as you as to what ails the Democratic Party but is convinced it can't be fixed and has fully defected. I have her NYT interview queued up to listen to on my drive today.
President Erdogan of Turkey famously said, "Democracy is like a streetcar. Once you ride it to where you want to go, you can get off."
(Ironically, right now in Turkey, there is a mass popular movement to restore democracy and kick Erdogan out of his effective Presidency-for-life.)
Meanwhile, all throughout the Western world, we see the same mindset expressed in different words. In the US, Democrats, especially Progressives, claim to be concerned about threats to democracy - but they define those threats as voters showing the audacity to vote for candidates other than Progressives and Democrats. Their preferred approach to defend their idea of democracy is to do everything in their power to prevent those other candidates from getting on the ballot and to delegitimize their election victories. After all, they argue, it can't really be democracy if they aren't winning.
If you look at history, you find this "only our democracy counts" attitude among totalitarian political movements. It often acts as the spark of anti-democratic revolution.
"Cancel culture, lawfare, weaponization of law enforcement against such groups as concerned parents and traditional Catholics, , the various machinations of the Intelligence Community and censorship are all profoundly undemocratic and have convinced many that Democrats cannot be trusted to uphold democracy."
...This is clearly incorrect, given the complete lack of outcry at Trump's engagement in these very same tactics by Trump voters. If they cared about this stuff, they'd be vocalizing it en masse in response to things like the Paul Weiss affair, or the lawsuits against media organizations. Or the disappearance of people off the street in broad daylight by federal agents.
But, instead, they've collectively shrugged their shoulders at all this--which leads one to believe that the prevailing accusation by MAGA's critics is largely true: that it is largely a populist movement based around strongman politics animated by cultural grievance, not a democratic movement animated by (small l) liberal principles. It is naught but a mirror-image of wokeness, but one in complete denial about its illiberal nature.
You got a better plan? Let's hear it? You can't beat something with nothing.
Appreciate this article. Want to say some more about it later (but I'm off on a walk with my wife....telling you this because I know you'll be interested).
But have to comment on one piece of data introduced....Reuben Gallego. We live in Arizona. Life-long Democrats. The reason he won was not so much about any of his positions, as stated in the article, but was because Arizonians are sick of Kari Lake (his opponent). Even Republicans. We didn't vote for either of them. Gallego changed his tune for the election. Before the election he was a self-described Progressive, and we don't vote for Progressives. He also trashed Kristen Sinema, who we adored because she was a centrist who could work with everybody (the way all Senators should do).
OK. Off on our walk. We want to catch the dawning of the day.
The Dems need to reverse their policies on Israel, Iran, immigration, sex based rights, and crime if they want me back as a voter. They also need to take antisemitism as seriously as they take all other forms of bigotry (their pandering to Jihadis has terrified me - I do not trust the Dems to keep us safe from harm). They won't do it - the academic professional class is holding them hostage, and would rather lose than compromise their "values".
Good article. You keep trying to communicate to the Democrats what they need to do but I don’t think they are ready to listen. They are still in denial and anger phase and not ready to begin to build. Building takes some intellectual capacity and that seems still muted. How do I know 1) the focus on AOC and Sanders and 2) the volcanic anger at Schumer for doing what was the logical thing given the choices.
AOC, like Bernie, is proof progressives haven’t grown tired of losing and taking the entire Democratic Party down with them.
I have been railing against AOC since she began making headlines as the face and voice of the opposition. I am a centrist Democrat. AOC’s huge load of progressive baggage and her Bronx vibes make her toxic west of the Hudson. And Bernie? An angry old socialist with a 1950s TV Brooklyn accent? Double poison.
I am a centrist too but I want a party that has an upper management that is actually democratic for a change. And Bernie, despite his flaws is absolutely right about the Biden administration being a failure in meeting the needs of workers vs the economic elites
The real losers are risk averse dinosaurs like Schumer and Biden. The real progressives like Bernie and aoc are getting voters excited for a change!
They aren’t. Progressives are toxic and the majority of the country hates the elections poison ideas they carry from the academic far left.
The voters will decide my friend
Right. They’ll keep deciding to dump the Democratic Party when it runs kook progressive ideas. Biden let in an absurd amount of progressives into his administration, with their genius first day trans participation in female sports, their deep support for antisemitism and other heavily unpopular moves. And Trump ran on those things and won.
While progressives love losing elections to keep the purity of their stupidity, centrists and liberals want to govern.
Voters had little to do with the selection of Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024. Party bosses did both of the anointments, ignoring primaries in 2020 and simply not having them in 2024.
Signalgate to the rescue man!!
The above precise political analysis is always fascinating, but if Dems do not stop dividing Americans by every metric possible, a recovery would seem unlikely. Dems should be asking what Dem policies are improving the lives of the majority of Americans, and what policies are harming their living standards. Then, Dems should be honest about the last 4 years.
If importing 10 million unvetted, mostly impoverished and sparsely educated migrants, improved the lives of Blue Collar Americans, Dems should be all over media explaining how it did so, or they should admit their mistake, and state how they intend to rectify it.
Likewise, if increasing federal spending by 47% benefited Americans in the bottom 4 quintiles of US earners, tell us how, or admit the error, and explain how Dems would govern differently, next time around.
If Climate Change is still Job No. 1 for Dems, explain how it will coexist with AI power requirements , while improving the living standards of Americans.
If Dems have a plan to combat the massive education failure, produced on their watch. Explain it.
Finally, if Dems hope to get back in the game, the adults should return home. AOC is leading the pack for 2028? What is her slogan , " I drove thousands of jobs from my district, I can do the same where you live, too!".
Jasmine Crockett is the new Dem standard- bearer? She has repeatedly called for Ted Cruz's head to be smashed, while she publicly pokes fun at Greg Abbott's wheelchair? There is not a single Dem with a physically challenged child, niece, nephew or God Child, with the fortitude to stand up and call for consequences? There are Dem former military members, who left limbs on the battlefield, they are OK with a Dem party piloted by Mean Girls? Trump may crash and burn so badly, Dems can avoid wholesale change, but I wouldn't bet on it.
This is absolutely right. BOTH parties have a massive "managerial" problem, with way too many of the insiders, consultants, and elites coming from the Ivy League and/or being a part of the managerial class---which, following its necessary and valuable victory in the late 1800s in industry---has now become a cancer in America. Managerial elites in both parties think they know better, that the answers are always in the "messaging" or the numbers," and are always at the tip of the woke spear.
I would hesitate to cite Galleo as evidence of anything. I'm in AZ. The AZ election of gov in 2020 and senator in 2024 were driven to a large degree by the dying McCain machine that hates Trump and Lake. Kimberlee Yee, in 2020, got 100,000 more votes for TREASURER than Lake did for Gov. In other words, 100,000 spiteful McCain voters wouldn't vote for her. That won't happen with Andy Biggs for the Senate or for a non-Lake candidate, and as 2024 proved Trump now owns AZ. The GOP here has moved from a 5% statewide advantage to 7.2%, as Gallego will find if he ever tries for reelection. I can't find many other "working class" Democrats. Certainly not Buttigieg or Walz.
Trump “owns” the border states, that’s all. You guys are smart enough to see what a ship show this senile fool is doing to the country and AZ will continue to trend left as long as they listen to the liberal patriot!
Gallego proves that candidate quality matters and Trump is not a political Superman with unlimited cape tails!
Back!!!
Want to say more at the section on Attitudinal analysis.
I was a psychologist, my wife was in law enforcement her entire career. A LOT of her work toward the end of her career was counseling-related for kids on probation.
What we believe was sorely missing for Progressives was in regards to the Attitudinal analysis, and in particular how to change peoples' attitudes.
What we saw in the two years leading up to the election was 180 degrees opposite of how a therapist works with clients to help them see better ways and to change their attitudes.
Still seeing that. Look at the number of articles and comments to articles that use the term "fight." Dems must "fight" Trump. Schumer should have "fought" Trump on the budget.
Show me a therapist who fights with her/his client to get change, and I'll show you a therapist who has only one client in his life.....none of the subsequent potential ones would ever go near her/him.
"Low information voters." Does that kind of thing persuade people? Deplorables?
And it was over and over and over. Putdown after putdown.
Use the strategies therapists have developed over the years to address Trump voters' attitudes. Don't POUND it into them.
Schumer did the right thing, for example, therapeutically. For people to change their attitudes toward Trump they have to come to that change on their own.....not by Progressives lecturing to them about how stupid they are to not see it. They have to "hit bottom" and see that the reason their lives haven't gotten better is that Trump failed them.......NOT that Progressives stood in his way. Psychologically Schumer's strategy was the best.
And now there are howls to replace Schumer, and calls for him to resign. Big article in the NYT this morning from the former editor of the LA Times who resigned because her paper wouldn't endorse Harris (as if that would have made a bit of difference because, as we know, millions upon millions of voters look to liberal papers to determine how to vote---NOT). Calling on Schumer to resign because he wouldn't go to the mat like she did and accomplished nothing.
People want to "FIGHT" with Trump voters. It creates an internal good feeling. And that's what we saw that a lot of progressives were after---that warm internal glow.
Psychologically people enjoy fighting. In wars fighting leads to victory. But it doesn't in social relationships, in marriages, in childrearing, in business, in religions, etc.
You don't win by fighting. You win by understanding the other person, taking them seriously 100%, and gently persuading them.
I have a self-awarded PHD in liberal studies having lived in CA in a liberal college town for the last 45 years. I know my liberal neighbors like the back of my hand.
This is a class hierarchy bias issue. Why did my liberal progressive friends pursue their upper level degrees at the most prestigious institution they could be accept in? For most of them it was not because of any burning pursuit to learn to do something productive. It was to help them fill the gaps in self-worth and low productive talent that they uncovered in their youth. It was a pursuit of theirs to fill a need to be moved higher on the social dominance hierarchy... something that they would struggle to do launching into the economy to compete with others on their productive merit.
They got their advanced degrees and like birds of a feather, they all flocked together... they moved to places where like-minded people lived, and they joined together to make sure they formed a united front to prevent any threat to their perceived status.
They hate the working class. They hate the working class just as they would hate their old B-average school mate captain of the Lacrosse team that owns a large plumbing contractor business or four car dealerships and enjoys an upper class life. They never had the right stuff to do those things. They had to stay in school longer to get their impressive academic credentials to satiate their feeling of inadequacy.
The rage we see from them against Trump and the efforts to improve the socioeconomic circumstances for the bottom 80% isn't that they disagree with it actually helping those 80%, it is that don't welcome that help. They don't want the competition for class status. They feels they are on top of the pyramid and they want to keep punching down those that might climb up to challenge them.
This is also why they push for policies that lock low-income people into poverty.
They are not well.
They need to be knocked off their perch and taught to pick up a hammer and go build something.
I am such an oddball, altho I often say I'm normal... I have my master's degree, I was a social worker, as a family therapist, before retiring from that, then owned my own business. I've been a volunteer for a variety of agencies my entire adult life because I learned that from my parents who were both volunteers. Mom was Christian/so mixed marriage. My dad was a Jewish Republican who was in politics - yep, another oddball, he was recruited by the Dem's of the state to run for governor, but 'respectfully' declined that offer... in my undergraduate yrs, when I was a newbie voter, McGovern - ha! - wrote my dad a loooong letter of rah, rah - he wrote 1 paragraph, respectfully, back, that explained his beliefs distinctly (wish I would have kept it!!). After that, I've been a voting R or Independent ever since. Even in graduate school, there were probably only 2 of us R's in a sea of liberal social work students AND staff. I have some stories about that, but I won't go there now... Just pointing out I don't fit the stats - educated, female, employed (previously) in a liberal field, only 1 time in my teen yrs voting as a dem... I cannot imagine voting dem. I have 3 sons, w/ their families, 1 lives in CA, 1 in OR, & the info of dem influence on those states is depressing. Talk about "Atlas Shrugged". CA is losing more & more taxpayers, their budget is really, repeat, really in trouble. A lot of dems and their businesses are leaving & going to red states - sure hope they know why!!! & don't bring their politics w/ them, 'cause I live in one of the states they're coming to.
little side note here re: mixed marriages... told my boys when they were young, the best thing to do to help reduce prejudice was to intermarry. One son married a Chinese woman. My brother is married to a Korean. So that also incorporates the idea of immigration... my dad's parents, separately immigrated, & it was extremely important to them to learn English & assimilate. So legal immigration, assimilation! BTW, one place I volunteered for was Adult Literacy. Some of our clients were legal immigrants who wanted to pass their citizenship exam. They were so proud when they did so!!! Another BTW, imo, every graduating high school senior should be required to pass that. Wow, this has gotten long... only 'cause I'm such an oddball
Great article and I'm thankful. The high point of many elections for me is when Catalist posts it's breakdown, I do love numbers.
In a way occupational analysis is also fairly cut and dried, less "feelings" than maybe in an attitudinal look at things.
One thing that stuck out for me when looking at and trying to figure out the graphic was the city/country divide. It looks like both parties are heavily dependent on cities and the burbs.
Somewhere I was reading lately about the senate race that shifted furthest to the left. Not that we won, but the senate race that had the largest split from the presidential race. It was that guy running as an independent in bright red Nebraska. A pipefitter as I remember, union organiser. He reminded me of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez who is also genuine, with strong ties to the working class and her district, and badly in need of a way to shorten her name.
Occupation is maybe more important to blue collar than to professionals in that if your job disappears, it's hard to switch occupations at the same pay level. Drywalling or concrete flatwork takes a couple years to get good at and longer to make the connections to secure steady work. Roofers don't easily switch to plumbing. Most blue collar workers when their occupation is wiped out due to immigration switch to things that pay a lot less. Unemployment and then Walmart or delivery.
Great essay from the LP as usual.
Agree 100%. Deb Fisher (Nebraska Senator) had a surprisingly close race against (private) union leader and independent candidate Dan Osborn.. She won her last race by 20 points and he came within 5+ points.
The operative word in your post is private. Public unions are profoundly different from private ones. Democrats need to cultivate the latter. What to do about the public sector unions the comprise such a large part of the base is tricky. They are most unlikely to defect to Republicans but they could just check out. We are seeing a revolt of that class right now that may morph into a complete takeover.
And of course private unions are in fact the largest contributors to the Democratic Party
Somewhere else here I commented that Democrats need to help with a better and younger sort of union leader that can connect better with the members. If the Age of Trump has proved anything, it is that money doesn't talk like it used to.
If the Dems work hard to bring in the New Democrats, we shall call them, what happens to the old rich elite ones? Could they even tolerate the new ones and the policies it takes to widen their tent? Will they lose more members/supporters than they gain? The Republicans are well on their way into their transition. I can’t see the Dems being able to do the same thing.
Losing bad builds character , I’m betting that they will do it!
I see nothing that indicates it may happen but sooner or later you’ve got to believe they will.
The workers Democrats represent are the SEIU, not the UAW - in other words,. DMV workers, not autoworkers.
One is insulated from market realities and the other is not.
Yeah but these days nobody is safe 😆
"A few years back, Verdant Labs produced a fascinating graphic depiction of the intersection of occupation and political affiliation (as measured by donations to the two political parties using F.E.C. data). Some heavily Republican industries and fields include fossil fuels (89 percent R), farming and forestry (72 percent R), insurance (66 percent R), and the military (60 percent R). Some heavily Democratic ones include the legal profession (73 percent D), foodservice (70 percent D), medical services (61 percent D), and IT (74 percent D). Notably, some sectors such as transportation show different partisan splits depending on what a person’s position is within that field. For example, truck and delivery drivers trend heavily Republican while locomotive engineers and taxi drivers are more Democratic."
This is fascinating if accurate! Some of the correlations are obvious (i.e. 89 percent R in the fossil fuels profession) but why would truck and delivery drivers lean R and locomotive engineers and taxi drivers lean D?
Ezra Klein in his interview with Santi Ruiz makes the point that there is a need for civil service reform that would make it easier to bring talented people into the government for special projects. He suggests that the Republicans could have staffed up the Department of Education with people who would support a conservative educational agenda. Instead, they decide to try to abolish the Department.