Just wanted to add that I'm second generation Hispanic, and always voted Democratic until I voted for Trump in 2016, the first Republican I ever voted for. I did so because when I taught English in Mexico, I learned that Mexico has very stringent rules on obtaining an employment visa. When I complained to my supervisor, he said that "every country has immigration laws and we have to obey them." What a joke!!!
So I came back and voted for Trump. I also liked that the wanted to bring back manufacturing jobs to America. But the main reason I will vote for Trump in 2024 is that I hate all that woke nonsense: racializing everything, allowing transgender "females" to compete against real women, DEI, cancel culture, defund the police...Anyway, I'm ready to vote for Trump, and if for some reason Trump isn't the candidate, I'll readily vote for JD Vance.
I am representative of big city political choices, but the Hispanics and Mexicans I know are NOT down with social justice narratives. They do not want to be labeled as oppressed, are culturally conservative, and don't really enjoy being lumped in with all other minorities. I've always known this would backfire on the Dems.
Woke Democrats show no interest in the real lives, let alone the real thoughts and feelings of individuals they view as "black and brown." The woke mob is also fickle as hell, consistent with the fact that so many of them are less than 25 years old. It appears in fact that they have moved on from idealizing Latin Americans (if they ever did) and even African Americans, and are now canonizing Middle Eastern terrorists. So, it is unrealistic to expect that the Democrats will be interested in who the people really are who have immigrated to the U.S. from countries south of our border.
I think the race thing is way overblown. Are Hispanic people white? Does it matter? I'd say in the south west United States just about no one cares. Fifty years ago yes, it was a big deal, discrimination was a fact of life. That was generations ago, there is little memory of it. No one can tell who is what even by surname.
There is a lot more commonality via income and education, class if you will, than there is via race or ethnicity. The Democratic Party would do better to concentrate on ending illegal immigration, and boosting the incomes of the bottom two quintiles into the middle class.
What I don't understand is why this shift hasn't been reflected in the overall polling numbers. Two possibilities are:
Harris is rallying enough college graduates to counter the shift in Hispanic working class voters.
The election polls aren't capturing the shift in working class voters due to likely voter screens and normalizing demographics based on past election results. (Hispanics historically vote at lower rates.)
The Democrats real problem may be that many Hispanics don't identify as Hispanic, but as their nationality. When I was last in southern California, I saw people in T-shirts saying "Don't call me Hispanic, I'm Mexican."
Also, race was never as salient a factor in Latin America as it is in the United States. Even though Brazil didn't abolish slavery until 1888, I never hear anyone writing about the black vote in Brazil.
“Most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while [it is being deliberately replaced by] a presumably liberal nonwhite population, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.”
Dems seem constantly, surprised Hispanics can perform Math. Bacon and eggs are not one price, for one ethnic group, and another for people with a different ethnicity. Everyone is suffering under the massive inflation, stoked by trillions in unnecessary DC spending. Hispanic electric bills have risen by 30% under Biden/Harris just as their gas prices rose by 50%, as well.
We all suffered the unnecessary Covid lockdowns, and are staring at the same unwanted EV mandates. Hispanics on a limited budget, like everyone else, in their same economic group, must compete with Biden/Harris new arrivals, for limited housing. The difference being, new migrants are often armed with NGO housing vouchers, unavailable to Americans. Some of whom, waited years, and spent thousands of dollars, to immigrate legally.
When their children come home from school, with tales of 5 new kids in their class, who speak 3 different languages, Hispanic parents, like everyone else, realize there are only so many hours in the school day, and if new arrivals require the bulk of teacher time, their own children will receive less.
Harris may win, but the days of Dems being able to utilize skin hue, as the Golden Ticket to electoral victories, have passed. Even if Dem party leaders, do not yet, realize the change.
I have been saying to Democratic friends for years that Hispanic voters are NOT a natural fit for today's Democratic Party, given the traditional values and religiosity of many Hispanics. The response often has been that Republican antipathy towards minorities will repel Hispanics into the Democratic fold regardless of social issues.
(By the way, I consider myself a moderately liberal Democrat and I have frequently voted for moderate Republicans. I will not vote for a Republican right now and at least until Trump is gone.)
A big problem with this thinking is that it overlooks that Republican support among non-rural whites isn't what it used to be either. Mitt Romney won whites by almost twenty points. Trump struggles to keep his gap in double digits. So, no matter how many have said otherwise, this racial realignment really doesn't seem to be a one-way street. The left may not like this since it sees itself as the ideology of the unfortunate, but it's by no means not sustainable.
Another issue is that this isn't just happening in the U.S. but the whole West. Only real exception I can think of is the UK's nonwhite vote, and that country went from a remarkable Conservative victory to a remarkable Labour victory over the last five years. The fact that Labour wasn't able to increase its nonwhite support compared to 2019 suggests that Britain is also subject to this trend.
And as this is a worldwide trend, don't assume, despite the past, that it's because of anything the Democrats have done. Or, despite the central message of this Substack, that they can do much about it.
I may have had a puzzlement complex over the negative Polls so I'll add something positive. During the few weeks after Harris entered the political race, I had and heard many grocery stores shoppers (who were once Trumpists) say they were voting for Harris.
Just wanted to add that I'm second generation Hispanic, and always voted Democratic until I voted for Trump in 2016, the first Republican I ever voted for. I did so because when I taught English in Mexico, I learned that Mexico has very stringent rules on obtaining an employment visa. When I complained to my supervisor, he said that "every country has immigration laws and we have to obey them." What a joke!!!
So I came back and voted for Trump. I also liked that the wanted to bring back manufacturing jobs to America. But the main reason I will vote for Trump in 2024 is that I hate all that woke nonsense: racializing everything, allowing transgender "females" to compete against real women, DEI, cancel culture, defund the police...Anyway, I'm ready to vote for Trump, and if for some reason Trump isn't the candidate, I'll readily vote for JD Vance.
Latinos:
Are largely working-class;
Are disproportionately churchgoers, with a growing preference for conservative Evangelicalism over social-gospel Catholicism;
Are a characteristically hard-working and often entrepreneurial culture, averse to and presumably resentful of “welfare culture”;
Don’t pay that much attention to feminist or sexual-minority issues, and are often hostile to them.
Have their own forms of “right-wing talk radio”/YouTube channels (and church pulpits) where hot-button “culture” issues are regularly aired.
It’s no surprise that this political shift is happening.
The Pennsylvania polling is pretty worrisome.
I am representative of big city political choices, but the Hispanics and Mexicans I know are NOT down with social justice narratives. They do not want to be labeled as oppressed, are culturally conservative, and don't really enjoy being lumped in with all other minorities. I've always known this would backfire on the Dems.
I am NOT representative. Whoops. I am a suburban female. My bad.
Woke Democrats show no interest in the real lives, let alone the real thoughts and feelings of individuals they view as "black and brown." The woke mob is also fickle as hell, consistent with the fact that so many of them are less than 25 years old. It appears in fact that they have moved on from idealizing Latin Americans (if they ever did) and even African Americans, and are now canonizing Middle Eastern terrorists. So, it is unrealistic to expect that the Democrats will be interested in who the people really are who have immigrated to the U.S. from countries south of our border.
I think the race thing is way overblown. Are Hispanic people white? Does it matter? I'd say in the south west United States just about no one cares. Fifty years ago yes, it was a big deal, discrimination was a fact of life. That was generations ago, there is little memory of it. No one can tell who is what even by surname.
There is a lot more commonality via income and education, class if you will, than there is via race or ethnicity. The Democratic Party would do better to concentrate on ending illegal immigration, and boosting the incomes of the bottom two quintiles into the middle class.
That depends a lot on location.
What I don't understand is why this shift hasn't been reflected in the overall polling numbers. Two possibilities are:
Harris is rallying enough college graduates to counter the shift in Hispanic working class voters.
The election polls aren't capturing the shift in working class voters due to likely voter screens and normalizing demographics based on past election results. (Hispanics historically vote at lower rates.)
The Democrats real problem may be that many Hispanics don't identify as Hispanic, but as their nationality. When I was last in southern California, I saw people in T-shirts saying "Don't call me Hispanic, I'm Mexican."
Also, race was never as salient a factor in Latin America as it is in the United States. Even though Brazil didn't abolish slavery until 1888, I never hear anyone writing about the black vote in Brazil.
“Most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while [it is being deliberately replaced by] a presumably liberal nonwhite population, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.”
Dems seem constantly, surprised Hispanics can perform Math. Bacon and eggs are not one price, for one ethnic group, and another for people with a different ethnicity. Everyone is suffering under the massive inflation, stoked by trillions in unnecessary DC spending. Hispanic electric bills have risen by 30% under Biden/Harris just as their gas prices rose by 50%, as well.
We all suffered the unnecessary Covid lockdowns, and are staring at the same unwanted EV mandates. Hispanics on a limited budget, like everyone else, in their same economic group, must compete with Biden/Harris new arrivals, for limited housing. The difference being, new migrants are often armed with NGO housing vouchers, unavailable to Americans. Some of whom, waited years, and spent thousands of dollars, to immigrate legally.
When their children come home from school, with tales of 5 new kids in their class, who speak 3 different languages, Hispanic parents, like everyone else, realize there are only so many hours in the school day, and if new arrivals require the bulk of teacher time, their own children will receive less.
Harris may win, but the days of Dems being able to utilize skin hue, as the Golden Ticket to electoral victories, have passed. Even if Dem party leaders, do not yet, realize the change.
Mrs
I have been saying to Democratic friends for years that Hispanic voters are NOT a natural fit for today's Democratic Party, given the traditional values and religiosity of many Hispanics. The response often has been that Republican antipathy towards minorities will repel Hispanics into the Democratic fold regardless of social issues.
(By the way, I consider myself a moderately liberal Democrat and I have frequently voted for moderate Republicans. I will not vote for a Republican right now and at least until Trump is gone.)
The PanAmerican Union turned in to the Council of the Americas about the time Nikki Haley went to NATO?????
A big problem with this thinking is that it overlooks that Republican support among non-rural whites isn't what it used to be either. Mitt Romney won whites by almost twenty points. Trump struggles to keep his gap in double digits. So, no matter how many have said otherwise, this racial realignment really doesn't seem to be a one-way street. The left may not like this since it sees itself as the ideology of the unfortunate, but it's by no means not sustainable.
Another issue is that this isn't just happening in the U.S. but the whole West. Only real exception I can think of is the UK's nonwhite vote, and that country went from a remarkable Conservative victory to a remarkable Labour victory over the last five years. The fact that Labour wasn't able to increase its nonwhite support compared to 2019 suggests that Britain is also subject to this trend.
And as this is a worldwide trend, don't assume, despite the past, that it's because of anything the Democrats have done. Or, despite the central message of this Substack, that they can do much about it.
I may have had a puzzlement complex over the negative Polls so I'll add something positive. During the few weeks after Harris entered the political race, I had and heard many grocery stores shoppers (who were once Trumpists) say they were voting for Harris.