I don't know about some of the others---pollster Richard Baris says the WI shift is staggering and so does my DecisionUSA2024 election night statistician, Seth Keshel---but I can tell you Arizona will be completely gone to Democrats. Period. Full Stop. Maricopa yesterday added over 600 R registrations in 8 hours for staggering 172,000 LEAD just in this county. No, Ds won't come close. Maricopa will be R+3-4 on election day & will have close to 1 MILLION registered Rs. The state as a whole now is looking R+7. I can also speak to internals I've seen of Clark, which is now R+2. I know, shocking. But the rightward shift in NV is heavily driven by anti woke Hispanics. We have recent EARLY VOTING data out of VA and it's not good for Ds either, with a net shift since 2020 of over 20 points and the overall early vote way down.. Pennsylvania is also getting into the "lock" zone for Trump. Virtually all polls show him up 2, meaning he's up over 4 because of the underpoll. PA Ds are down 400,000 from their 2020 number in registrations. And the last NC poll was Trump +4, right where I have him. Elissa Slotkin last week said Ds were "underwater" in MI, so I wouldn't count on Wayne, particularly since a coalition of Arab groups came out against Harris. Right now I have the election as Trump +1 to 2 nationally and 312 EVs, but a tier of states I did not put in the mix, ME, VA, MN, NM, and NH, are now totally in play (last NM poll was Trump down by only 4). The senate races are now R+3 pickups (WV, MT, OH) with MI and PA even and last week Baldwin's crew said they were in trouble in WI, only up 2 (again, the Trump underpoll means this very likely is another loss. Same with Slotkin). Gonna be a very long night for Democrats.
Just since I posted the R registration edge in Maricopa Co went up big again. 4000 gross in 24 hours, 2000 net. Maricopa Rs now lead by a stunning 173,000. Luzerne Co, PA, which just flipped red added still more and Rs there are actually building a lead. And word has surfaced that the internals in WI show Trump up 3, about 1 higher than I have him.
But given the rapidly growing crime and dysfunction of urban America, compounded by Democrats' open borders' culpability, it may prove a stretch to assume, based on past performance, that the party has a lock on these traditional Democratic strongholds. And then there's the not-so-little matter of the Harris/Walz glaring weaknesses that fail to inspire confidence.
Have you come across any reasonable estimate of the impact of the devastation of western NC counties on the ability to actually hold elections in the area around Asheville? Some polling places surely no longer exist. Some people are still unreachable, so they can't even do mail-in voting (assuming they had a local post office in working order). People have been forced to flee the area. Does a functioning county exist from whom they can request an absentee vote?
Outside Asheville, the area is supposedly Red. How many potential Red voters might be unable to actually cast a vote?
Is the total number of voters in the impacted area large enough to make an impact if large numbers are simply physically unable to vote?
Geez, I miss the good old days when Macomb County, Michigan was a bell weather. I was a media consultant on 2 senate and one gubernatorial race, and nationally as well, the spotlight was on Macomb County.
Update on jobs in Macomb County via WSJ: "•Stellantis last month announced nearly 200 layoffs at its plant in Sterling Heights, Mich., citing “intense external market conditions.” This followed 2,450 layoffs announced in August at its plant in Warren, Mich. CEO Carlos Tavares compared the EV transition to a Darwinian struggle and warned that some auto makers might not survive."
I don't know about some of the others---pollster Richard Baris says the WI shift is staggering and so does my DecisionUSA2024 election night statistician, Seth Keshel---but I can tell you Arizona will be completely gone to Democrats. Period. Full Stop. Maricopa yesterday added over 600 R registrations in 8 hours for staggering 172,000 LEAD just in this county. No, Ds won't come close. Maricopa will be R+3-4 on election day & will have close to 1 MILLION registered Rs. The state as a whole now is looking R+7. I can also speak to internals I've seen of Clark, which is now R+2. I know, shocking. But the rightward shift in NV is heavily driven by anti woke Hispanics. We have recent EARLY VOTING data out of VA and it's not good for Ds either, with a net shift since 2020 of over 20 points and the overall early vote way down.. Pennsylvania is also getting into the "lock" zone for Trump. Virtually all polls show him up 2, meaning he's up over 4 because of the underpoll. PA Ds are down 400,000 from their 2020 number in registrations. And the last NC poll was Trump +4, right where I have him. Elissa Slotkin last week said Ds were "underwater" in MI, so I wouldn't count on Wayne, particularly since a coalition of Arab groups came out against Harris. Right now I have the election as Trump +1 to 2 nationally and 312 EVs, but a tier of states I did not put in the mix, ME, VA, MN, NM, and NH, are now totally in play (last NM poll was Trump down by only 4). The senate races are now R+3 pickups (WV, MT, OH) with MI and PA even and last week Baldwin's crew said they were in trouble in WI, only up 2 (again, the Trump underpoll means this very likely is another loss. Same with Slotkin). Gonna be a very long night for Democrats.
Just since I posted the R registration edge in Maricopa Co went up big again. 4000 gross in 24 hours, 2000 net. Maricopa Rs now lead by a stunning 173,000. Luzerne Co, PA, which just flipped red added still more and Rs there are actually building a lead. And word has surfaced that the internals in WI show Trump up 3, about 1 higher than I have him.
But given the rapidly growing crime and dysfunction of urban America, compounded by Democrats' open borders' culpability, it may prove a stretch to assume, based on past performance, that the party has a lock on these traditional Democratic strongholds. And then there's the not-so-little matter of the Harris/Walz glaring weaknesses that fail to inspire confidence.
Have you come across any reasonable estimate of the impact of the devastation of western NC counties on the ability to actually hold elections in the area around Asheville? Some polling places surely no longer exist. Some people are still unreachable, so they can't even do mail-in voting (assuming they had a local post office in working order). People have been forced to flee the area. Does a functioning county exist from whom they can request an absentee vote?
Outside Asheville, the area is supposedly Red. How many potential Red voters might be unable to actually cast a vote?
Is the total number of voters in the impacted area large enough to make an impact if large numbers are simply physically unable to vote?
Geez, I miss the good old days when Macomb County, Michigan was a bell weather. I was a media consultant on 2 senate and one gubernatorial race, and nationally as well, the spotlight was on Macomb County.
Update on jobs in Macomb County via WSJ: "•Stellantis last month announced nearly 200 layoffs at its plant in Sterling Heights, Mich., citing “intense external market conditions.” This followed 2,450 layoffs announced in August at its plant in Warren, Mich. CEO Carlos Tavares compared the EV transition to a Darwinian struggle and warned that some auto makers might not survive."