The Dems will do great in low turnout elections, and will lose the presidency and even more Senate seats in 2028. You offer working class voters nothing, and working class voters are the majority.
Baloney. People are angry and ready to toss MAGA after 60 days. "Hands off" is resonating with millions. Patience is wearing thin. Folks aren't actually in favor of any of Chumps current policies. They want to keep their money and leave Greenland alone. Watch it get much worse.
The most likely scenario is that working class voters, and indeed voters in general, are about to get crushed by the fallout from the Trump tariff madness; if Trump takes the tariffs away swiftly, they might get mildly crushed. If he refuses to budge until he gets what he wants--consistent trade surpluses--they are going to get crushed in a way they have probably never experienced in their lifetimes, nor their parents. And either way, we are about to see American power and prestige in the world cut down in unprecedented fashion. Even if the Dems offer them nothing, a majority of the working class will vote for that over waaaaaay-less-than-nothing.
Elections are not a lottery. Can we get back to a real media discussing in depth real issues and answers to those issues? We know Democrats are against Trump. What are they for, please?
Dale, I'm sure as a longtime TLP reader you know that we've written extensively about the issues and continue to do so. But we've also been covering politics and elections for several years, which we think are important too, especially because non-presidential elections matter tremendously as it relates to the balance of power in the U.S. Plenty of our readers were fine with that coverage when Joe Biden was president, and we aren't going to stop doing it now just because the presidency has changed hands. I think Nate's piece is a nice, even-handed summary of what the data tell us about the political landscape right now.
Appreciate TLP very much, especially as it delves beyond the obvious and too often superficial to uncover the significance behind trends and developments in our volatile political landscape. I simply felt Nate's piece came up a little shy of expectation.
Having retired from a career in journalism, I regard poll watching a bit like scorekeeping, capturing a moment in time too often at the expense of the bigger and longer term picture.
I think TLP staff's willingness to engage its readership in discussion and debate is a virtue missing with most of the Legacy media, and I appreciate your comments.
Why the successful vote to enshrine voter ID is being ignored is puzzling. No voter ID is seen as bedrock principle of the left, yet it lost. Individual wins are indicative of something, losses based on bad policies, no voter ID, would seem to indicate the left still has a big problem not with messaging but their message.
The democrats still have a pretty potent political machine with motivated voters showing up and motivated donors donating. All Elons bucks were spent in vain. Wah wah Elon 😎
All depends on if Trump keeps these tariffs in place.
Quick review on how the global economy works, folks: there has been no global gold standard since the U.S. ran out of gold in the seventies and had to detach the dollar from it. The result of this de-linkage replaced gold with U.S. treasury bonds as the reserve asset. Since then, global trade has been financed by the U.S. exchanging treasury debt (i.e., dollars) for the exports of other countries, which has meant that the rest of the world funds our military and fiscal deficits *for free* and is the reason why we have persistent trade deficits.
For the U.S. to tariff its way to a trade surplus, as Trump has said is his intent, either (A.) the dollar has to be jettisoned as the global reserve currency, or (B.) the U.S. has to reimplement the gold standard. (A) causes a stagflationary depression, and because the U.S. has no gold, (B.) means a depression *on steroids*.
If Trump doesn't rescind the tariffs, the degree to which the American people will get screwed will mean Republicans will be out of power for a generation, 1930s-style. Hopefully the GOP gets their heads around it in time and lifts the new tariff regime. But that would mean standing up to Trump so I wouldn't count on it.
For example, here is what I'm talking about just out today. NC: Rs +18,000, Ds -45,000 (!), net Rs 63,000 since March (!!).
These numbers are unsustainable, even if a large % of Ds go indy. NC is on target to be R by early next year as well. NV is already barely +R. That's a three state flip just within a18 months of the last election.
Democrats can "overperform" all they want in special elections, but they still lose (6/9, and if you include the WI voter ID law, 7/10). The typical NEW MAGA GOP base is working class who have jobs, and who don't have lots of free time to come out for special elections all the time.
No, specials don't predict much. Richard Baris has totally destroyed that myth. You know what does predict? Voter registration trends. It allowed me in 2016 to predict not only would Trump win but he would win with "between 300 and 320 Electoral Votes." Then again in 2024, in June, I wrote "Trump will win with 312 Electoral votes and carry the popular vote." Was I looking at special elections? Goat entrails? Nope. Voter registration. Yesterday Seth Keshel ("Captain K's Corner") had a great update on the latest voter registration trends in seven swing states where we can measure these. All seven saw SHARP GOP trends. At the current rate, PA will be red by July 26; AZ is heading for R+8; FL is heading for R+10; and even NJ NY, and CA are seeing Rs outregister ds.
Moreover, I know it seems hard to believe as of today, but by this time next year President Trump will have completely reset the international economic order, US jobs will be exploding (as they did last month with 228,000 and virtually none of them gubment jobs) and factories blossoming like tulips in Holland. The US debt with be slashed, as will tax rates. Inflation is already HALF what it was under Biden and heading down. Bond yields also down, meaning that Trump will pay the interest in the debt easily when just a few months ago economists were freaking out. It's a golden age upon us, and unless Democrats radically---and I mean radically---change the nature of their party, they won't be around for much of it.
...you really don't get what's going on, do you? What happens if Trump doesn't rescind these tariffs, like, yesterday? I mean...I really don't know if you'll be psychologically capable of coping with what happens if he doesn't.
I would suggest you begin reading up on how global trade, and the dollar system, works. You'll see that if Trump sticks with these tariffs until he gets what he says he wants--consistent trade surpluses--the price to be paid will be a depression-sized downturn and possibly the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Your best bet is to pray your orange god-king fails, Larry.
Nonsense. At the current rate...MAGA is going to offer up the midterms on a platter. As puny as they are, the Democrats will accept this. Take back Congress and they can bring this whole shizzle show to a grinding halt. Also keep an eye on the wishy-washy Independents who put Chump back in office. They don't vote "for" anybody. They blow with the wind.
My God I hope it’s not 2017 all over again. That’d mean another 2020 is just 3 years away. And that is the reason it’s not 2017 right now. 2/3 off the US was so turned off by 2020/21 that you’ll never see the same ground swell as 2017 in the current year of our Lord, 2025. But if you want to pretend…
Blake Gendebien would have won NY 21 in a special election had Stefanik resigned. He is well positioned financially and with broad local support to win whenever the seat is open (November 2026 or sooner). His blue dog, common sense message is resonating with the electorate in NY 21 including Democrats, Independents and a sliver of Republicans frustrated with their DC leadership. He has also successfully avoided liberal hysterics and indicated support for bipartisan approaches to address the real challenges our country faces. What is amazing is that he is doing it on his own without support from the Democrat party establishment. His message focuses on the real concerns of NY 21 residents - everyday affordability, rural health care, supporting small businesses (tourism, forest products, farming, commercial, etc.) and reasonable, workable immigration reform with border security. While the NY 21 race still has a long ways to go, Blake Gendebien is a model for how the Democrats can win back rural America.
Given current sentiment about tariffs, Republicans will be fortunate to hold their losses to 41 seats in 2026. If there is a recession in 2026 it will be worse.
Well there you have it, folks. Absent a reply, let it be known Larry, who says he is a claimant to a Ph.D in economic history, cannot provide the explanation requested, which anyone with a halfway decent education in economics should be able to. (or, more accurately, be capable of confirming that the mentioned goals, which Trump has articulated as his own, cannot be met). We may therefore conclude, for future reference, that Larry is quite clearly *not* a commentator to be taken seriously--and I would venture to say the same goes for anyone echoing his talking points, for that matter. (most of all Trump himself)
Uh-huh. A Ph.D in economic history and you don't understand how global trade works.
Go ahead and prove it--explain to me, in economic terms, how the U.S. achieves consistent trade surpluses with the dollar as the global reserve currency, no gold standard and high tariffs.
The Dems will do great in low turnout elections, and will lose the presidency and even more Senate seats in 2028. You offer working class voters nothing, and working class voters are the majority.
Baloney. People are angry and ready to toss MAGA after 60 days. "Hands off" is resonating with millions. Patience is wearing thin. Folks aren't actually in favor of any of Chumps current policies. They want to keep their money and leave Greenland alone. Watch it get much worse.
The most likely scenario is that working class voters, and indeed voters in general, are about to get crushed by the fallout from the Trump tariff madness; if Trump takes the tariffs away swiftly, they might get mildly crushed. If he refuses to budge until he gets what he wants--consistent trade surpluses--they are going to get crushed in a way they have probably never experienced in their lifetimes, nor their parents. And either way, we are about to see American power and prestige in the world cut down in unprecedented fashion. Even if the Dems offer them nothing, a majority of the working class will vote for that over waaaaaay-less-than-nothing.
Biden offered working class voters plenty but was too stubborn to quit and have real primary where those voters could have decided better 😎
Elections are not a lottery. Can we get back to a real media discussing in depth real issues and answers to those issues? We know Democrats are against Trump. What are they for, please?
Dale, I'm sure as a longtime TLP reader you know that we've written extensively about the issues and continue to do so. But we've also been covering politics and elections for several years, which we think are important too, especially because non-presidential elections matter tremendously as it relates to the balance of power in the U.S. Plenty of our readers were fine with that coverage when Joe Biden was president, and we aren't going to stop doing it now just because the presidency has changed hands. I think Nate's piece is a nice, even-handed summary of what the data tell us about the political landscape right now.
Appreciate TLP very much, especially as it delves beyond the obvious and too often superficial to uncover the significance behind trends and developments in our volatile political landscape. I simply felt Nate's piece came up a little shy of expectation.
Having retired from a career in journalism, I regard poll watching a bit like scorekeeping, capturing a moment in time too often at the expense of the bigger and longer term picture.
I think TLP staff's willingness to engage its readership in discussion and debate is a virtue missing with most of the Legacy media, and I appreciate your comments.
Sadly, you can see the same thing in the establishment Republican media. My tribe good. This is the road to ruin.
100% agree. Need a robust and concise vision that can easily be executed to gain back lost voters in ‘26 and ‘28
Why the successful vote to enshrine voter ID is being ignored is puzzling. No voter ID is seen as bedrock principle of the left, yet it lost. Individual wins are indicative of something, losses based on bad policies, no voter ID, would seem to indicate the left still has a big problem not with messaging but their message.
The democrats still have a pretty potent political machine with motivated voters showing up and motivated donors donating. All Elons bucks were spent in vain. Wah wah Elon 😎
All depends on if Trump keeps these tariffs in place.
Quick review on how the global economy works, folks: there has been no global gold standard since the U.S. ran out of gold in the seventies and had to detach the dollar from it. The result of this de-linkage replaced gold with U.S. treasury bonds as the reserve asset. Since then, global trade has been financed by the U.S. exchanging treasury debt (i.e., dollars) for the exports of other countries, which has meant that the rest of the world funds our military and fiscal deficits *for free* and is the reason why we have persistent trade deficits.
For the U.S. to tariff its way to a trade surplus, as Trump has said is his intent, either (A.) the dollar has to be jettisoned as the global reserve currency, or (B.) the U.S. has to reimplement the gold standard. (A) causes a stagflationary depression, and because the U.S. has no gold, (B.) means a depression *on steroids*.
If Trump doesn't rescind the tariffs, the degree to which the American people will get screwed will mean Republicans will be out of power for a generation, 1930s-style. Hopefully the GOP gets their heads around it in time and lifts the new tariff regime. But that would mean standing up to Trump so I wouldn't count on it.
For example, here is what I'm talking about just out today. NC: Rs +18,000, Ds -45,000 (!), net Rs 63,000 since March (!!).
These numbers are unsustainable, even if a large % of Ds go indy. NC is on target to be R by early next year as well. NV is already barely +R. That's a three state flip just within a18 months of the last election.
Democrats can "overperform" all they want in special elections, but they still lose (6/9, and if you include the WI voter ID law, 7/10). The typical NEW MAGA GOP base is working class who have jobs, and who don't have lots of free time to come out for special elections all the time.
No, specials don't predict much. Richard Baris has totally destroyed that myth. You know what does predict? Voter registration trends. It allowed me in 2016 to predict not only would Trump win but he would win with "between 300 and 320 Electoral Votes." Then again in 2024, in June, I wrote "Trump will win with 312 Electoral votes and carry the popular vote." Was I looking at special elections? Goat entrails? Nope. Voter registration. Yesterday Seth Keshel ("Captain K's Corner") had a great update on the latest voter registration trends in seven swing states where we can measure these. All seven saw SHARP GOP trends. At the current rate, PA will be red by July 26; AZ is heading for R+8; FL is heading for R+10; and even NJ NY, and CA are seeing Rs outregister ds.
Moreover, I know it seems hard to believe as of today, but by this time next year President Trump will have completely reset the international economic order, US jobs will be exploding (as they did last month with 228,000 and virtually none of them gubment jobs) and factories blossoming like tulips in Holland. The US debt with be slashed, as will tax rates. Inflation is already HALF what it was under Biden and heading down. Bond yields also down, meaning that Trump will pay the interest in the debt easily when just a few months ago economists were freaking out. It's a golden age upon us, and unless Democrats radically---and I mean radically---change the nature of their party, they won't be around for much of it.
"US jobs will be exploding"
...you really don't get what's going on, do you? What happens if Trump doesn't rescind these tariffs, like, yesterday? I mean...I really don't know if you'll be psychologically capable of coping with what happens if he doesn't.
I would suggest you begin reading up on how global trade, and the dollar system, works. You'll see that if Trump sticks with these tariffs until he gets what he says he wants--consistent trade surpluses--the price to be paid will be a depression-sized downturn and possibly the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Your best bet is to pray your orange god-king fails, Larry.
Nonsense. At the current rate...MAGA is going to offer up the midterms on a platter. As puny as they are, the Democrats will accept this. Take back Congress and they can bring this whole shizzle show to a grinding halt. Also keep an eye on the wishy-washy Independents who put Chump back in office. They don't vote "for" anybody. They blow with the wind.
My God I hope it’s not 2017 all over again. That’d mean another 2020 is just 3 years away. And that is the reason it’s not 2017 right now. 2/3 off the US was so turned off by 2020/21 that you’ll never see the same ground swell as 2017 in the current year of our Lord, 2025. But if you want to pretend…
Blake Gendebien would have won NY 21 in a special election had Stefanik resigned. He is well positioned financially and with broad local support to win whenever the seat is open (November 2026 or sooner). His blue dog, common sense message is resonating with the electorate in NY 21 including Democrats, Independents and a sliver of Republicans frustrated with their DC leadership. He has also successfully avoided liberal hysterics and indicated support for bipartisan approaches to address the real challenges our country faces. What is amazing is that he is doing it on his own without support from the Democrat party establishment. His message focuses on the real concerns of NY 21 residents - everyday affordability, rural health care, supporting small businesses (tourism, forest products, farming, commercial, etc.) and reasonable, workable immigration reform with border security. While the NY 21 race still has a long ways to go, Blake Gendebien is a model for how the Democrats can win back rural America.
Given current sentiment about tariffs, Republicans will be fortunate to hold their losses to 41 seats in 2026. If there is a recession in 2026 it will be worse.
This make me yawn a bit.
Since I correctly predicted the elections, and since I have a PhD in economic history, I'll take my opinion and results over yours.
Well there you have it, folks. Absent a reply, let it be known Larry, who says he is a claimant to a Ph.D in economic history, cannot provide the explanation requested, which anyone with a halfway decent education in economics should be able to. (or, more accurately, be capable of confirming that the mentioned goals, which Trump has articulated as his own, cannot be met). We may therefore conclude, for future reference, that Larry is quite clearly *not* a commentator to be taken seriously--and I would venture to say the same goes for anyone echoing his talking points, for that matter. (most of all Trump himself)
Uh-huh. A Ph.D in economic history and you don't understand how global trade works.
Go ahead and prove it--explain to me, in economic terms, how the U.S. achieves consistent trade surpluses with the dollar as the global reserve currency, no gold standard and high tariffs.
Enlighten us.
Voter registration says exactly the opposite. In 2017, voter registration didn't move.
Poll yesterday shows Trump support at 53%.
Nope, Democrats are swirling the bowl.
Some off-year elections have been the canary in the coal mine. A caveat is money and media coverage are laser beamed on a limited battlefield.