Really Nate? Reagan took ONE YEAR to turn a horrid Jimmy Carter economy around, and that was only the inflation side. It was almost two years before all the jobs were back. Trump is already showing---wait for it cuz this is really gonna hurt---MASSIVE downturn in fed % of the workforce and a shocking increase in private manufacturing. Gee, I think that's what Democrats ran on for 30 years---more manufacturing. Moreover, all these hoax polls---you know, the same ones that had Harris winning? WhenI had Trump at 312 EVs & pop vote LAST JUNE??---are useless. Try looking at voter registration shifts. That's where the action is. Oh, and Democrats are getting killed. I won't repeat all the numbers here today---you can check my Larry's Substack for that, but PA went from 190,000 advantage in 2020 to 89,000 active advantage today; NC from 175,000 to just 30,000 active today, Mar Co. is up by 1% MORE since Novem, when it had shot up by 4% in the previous 2 years, while Pima CO (D) is 1% down in D registrations. If people are upset with the economy, odd they keep REGISTERING REPUBLICAN.
GOP efforts at registration have indeed been more successful, Larry, and the RNC is better organized right now than the DNC. But that doesn’t mean a) those newly registered Republicans will turn out nor b) they will necessarily vote Republican. Voters who weren’t registered already probably aren’t that engaged and are probably not that ideological. Independents are the key constituency here, and Trump is underwater with them.
Of course polls are a snapshot in time, but the snapshot in time right now is Trump’s popularity currently falling, much of it self-inflicted with this silly back and forth on tariffs. He was elected primarily to bring prices down, his main focus has been elsewhere, and voters are noticing.
It's been pointed out that polls are a snapshot In time, a mere burp or high-five. So why do we persist in taking them so seriously. It took most of four years for Joe Biden to give Americans the most out-of-control economy and worst inflation in 50 years. And most of the Legacy media largely ignored Americans' pain. Most Americans will be similarly more patient than Democrats and the media in giving Trump a chance to fix it ... say, until the midterms.
I actually don’t think they’ll be more patient, and it’s why Trump’s honeymoon is over. Plus, Trump harped constantly on inflation during the campaign and said he’d bring prices down on “day one.” Well, that obviously hasn’t transpired, nor does it look like it will given the current trajectory. After 6 months, say, Trump owns this economy. No more scapegoating “Bidenflation.”
There are two economies in America. The top 20%. The professional laptop class. The managerial class. The upper class coastal and big city liberal elite. They track with the stock market indexes and real estate values. Then there is the bottom 80%. The working class and low income people. They track with jobs, wages, inflation and interest rates. And none of that has been healthy despite the Democrat's unilateral $4 trillion in additional debt spending after we knew that the death risk from COVD was less than the seasonal flu.
Trump's goals are to improve the economic lives of the bottom 80%. If it negatively impacts the top 20%, that impact is deserved given that the top 20% has pursued their wealth at the expense of the bottom 80%.
So reports on the stock market indexes falling, real estate values falling and lower GDP... those are top-20% measures. We will ignore them and focus on the data that, for example, is the number of businesses committed to moving good jobs back to the US to areas of the country that have labor surplus areas.
I doubt many look to the stock market to judge how the economy is doing. Look how many thought the economy was doing poorly when the market has been doing great in 23 and 24. I would look more towards credit card debt, help wanted signs, and wages or hourly earnings of the second and third quintile.
Tariffs are disliked strongly by investors, for good reason. Tariffs might help wages of the working class, eventually, perhaps years from now, but it will hurt quarterly profits of multinationals today. Eggs, gas, and rent, might not be due to tariffs but it doesn't hurt to blame them.
Holy crap, give it a few months before piling on and shit-can these stats. There's a lot of shaking out that needs to be done. You'd think he was into his second or third year.
Really Nate? Reagan took ONE YEAR to turn a horrid Jimmy Carter economy around, and that was only the inflation side. It was almost two years before all the jobs were back. Trump is already showing---wait for it cuz this is really gonna hurt---MASSIVE downturn in fed % of the workforce and a shocking increase in private manufacturing. Gee, I think that's what Democrats ran on for 30 years---more manufacturing. Moreover, all these hoax polls---you know, the same ones that had Harris winning? WhenI had Trump at 312 EVs & pop vote LAST JUNE??---are useless. Try looking at voter registration shifts. That's where the action is. Oh, and Democrats are getting killed. I won't repeat all the numbers here today---you can check my Larry's Substack for that, but PA went from 190,000 advantage in 2020 to 89,000 active advantage today; NC from 175,000 to just 30,000 active today, Mar Co. is up by 1% MORE since Novem, when it had shot up by 4% in the previous 2 years, while Pima CO (D) is 1% down in D registrations. If people are upset with the economy, odd they keep REGISTERING REPUBLICAN.
GOP efforts at registration have indeed been more successful, Larry, and the RNC is better organized right now than the DNC. But that doesn’t mean a) those newly registered Republicans will turn out nor b) they will necessarily vote Republican. Voters who weren’t registered already probably aren’t that engaged and are probably not that ideological. Independents are the key constituency here, and Trump is underwater with them.
Of course polls are a snapshot in time, but the snapshot in time right now is Trump’s popularity currently falling, much of it self-inflicted with this silly back and forth on tariffs. He was elected primarily to bring prices down, his main focus has been elsewhere, and voters are noticing.
The Democrats are still crazy. Listen to Ruy. Salvation has to come from within and not from the problems of your opposition.
It's been pointed out that polls are a snapshot In time, a mere burp or high-five. So why do we persist in taking them so seriously. It took most of four years for Joe Biden to give Americans the most out-of-control economy and worst inflation in 50 years. And most of the Legacy media largely ignored Americans' pain. Most Americans will be similarly more patient than Democrats and the media in giving Trump a chance to fix it ... say, until the midterms.
I actually don’t think they’ll be more patient, and it’s why Trump’s honeymoon is over. Plus, Trump harped constantly on inflation during the campaign and said he’d bring prices down on “day one.” Well, that obviously hasn’t transpired, nor does it look like it will given the current trajectory. After 6 months, say, Trump owns this economy. No more scapegoating “Bidenflation.”
We now know that Musk does not believe in empathy. In fact, he thinks it is a source of political weakness.
So what?
There are two economies in America. The top 20%. The professional laptop class. The managerial class. The upper class coastal and big city liberal elite. They track with the stock market indexes and real estate values. Then there is the bottom 80%. The working class and low income people. They track with jobs, wages, inflation and interest rates. And none of that has been healthy despite the Democrat's unilateral $4 trillion in additional debt spending after we knew that the death risk from COVD was less than the seasonal flu.
Trump's goals are to improve the economic lives of the bottom 80%. If it negatively impacts the top 20%, that impact is deserved given that the top 20% has pursued their wealth at the expense of the bottom 80%.
So reports on the stock market indexes falling, real estate values falling and lower GDP... those are top-20% measures. We will ignore them and focus on the data that, for example, is the number of businesses committed to moving good jobs back to the US to areas of the country that have labor surplus areas.
How long do presidential honeymoons usually last, especially with almost 50% of the electorate hoping he fails?
It does depend a lot on how the question is asked. Even the tone.
I doubt many look to the stock market to judge how the economy is doing. Look how many thought the economy was doing poorly when the market has been doing great in 23 and 24. I would look more towards credit card debt, help wanted signs, and wages or hourly earnings of the second and third quintile.
Tariffs are disliked strongly by investors, for good reason. Tariffs might help wages of the working class, eventually, perhaps years from now, but it will hurt quarterly profits of multinationals today. Eggs, gas, and rent, might not be due to tariffs but it doesn't hurt to blame them.
Holy crap, give it a few months before piling on and shit-can these stats. There's a lot of shaking out that needs to be done. You'd think he was into his second or third year.