Cracks in Trump’s Floor Start with the Economy

The honeymoon didn’t last long.

Nearly 50 days into his 2nd term, Donald Trump finds himself with a roughly even approval rating. The trendline, however, is unambiguous. The day after inauguration, 51.6 percent of Americans approved of Trump and 40.0 percent disapproved—a net rating of +11.6. By the weekend his approval had dipped to 48.1 percent and his disapproval climbed to 47.4 percent.

The good news for The Donald is he’s still outperforming his first term marks. By this point in 2017, he was already four points underwater, a rating that quickly fell another six points by his 100th day in office. The American public remains happier with Trump 2.0 than Trump 1.0—at least for now.

The bad news? Both Trump terms are easily the most unpopular a president has been this early in an administration. Take a look at the chart below from G. Elliott Morris—at this point even Joe Biden’s net approval rating was +15!

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Part of this phenomenon is Trump’s oft-discussed “high floor and low ceiling.” About 40 percent of the country will always approve of his performance. Even in the immediate aftermath of January 6th, his average approval rating dropped only into the high 30s (probably with some degree of response bias as well). On the flip side, his approval rating just barely kissed 50 percent for a few days at the start of his second term and never once hit a majority in his first term. A narrow band of outcomes, indeed.

While it’s probable that Trump’s 2nd term approval rating ultimately tracks closely to his first term’s, a look under the hood hints at choppy waters ahead. Until the pandemic, Trump’s saving grace was his economic approval ratings. Let’s call it the “Mean Tweets” theory: a chunk of voters who thought Trump was offensive or insulting or chaotic, but nonetheless approved of his presidency because they had solid jobs and the stock market kept climbing. An overall approval rating in the low 40s buoyed by economic ratings in the high 50s—voters would deal with Trump as long as the economy hummed along.

This was, of course, a crucial factor in November’s election. As they headed to the polls, Americans were particularly nostalgic for the Trump-era economy. A pre-election New York Times poll found that 64 percent of registered voters “strongly or somewhat approved” of Trump’s handling of the economy during his first term. When asked the one thing they remembered most about Trump’s presidency, more voters picked the economy than immigration, January 6, foreign policy, and Covid combined.

Things are starting to look a little different this time around. Yes, it’s early, but the delta between Trump’s overall approval and economic approval has largely disappeared—and not in the direction MAGA faithful would prefer. Take a look at how Americans view Trump’s handling of “jobs and the economy” and “inflation and prices.”

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While voters were willing to give Trump some initial leeway, the leash has quickly shortened. Unlike his first term, economic approval closely tracks overall approval—hovering around or just below net-even. Much better than Biden, but below the economic numbers of his first term. Trump’s marks on inflation, meanwhile, are more negative. Some might argue this is merely baggage from the Biden administration. But the question asks specifically about Trump’s handling of the issue, not about inflation overall. His repeated promise to end inflation “on day one” might be coming home to roost.

The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter notes similarly negative numbers on voter perceptions of tariffs. While hardcore Trump supporters back tariffs, “just 31 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 and say they are ‘not strong approvers’ of the president think tariffs overall are a good thing.” Furthermore, support for tariffs among this group has declined by 15 points since Trump took office.

More broadly, voters don’t appear too optimistic that Trump’s economic policies are going to make things much better—a stark contrast from his first term. A recent Marist poll found that 43 percent of registered voters think the direction Trump is moving the U.S. economy is a “change for the better,” but 47 percent feel it is a “change for the worse.” Yet again, his net-economic numbers perfectly match his overall approval rating. Back in July 2018, when Marist last asked the same question, Trump’s overall approval was noticeably worse: 39 percent approval, 51 percent disapproval. But even as a blue wave neared, his economic numbers looked rock solid: 49 percent said Trump was changing the economy for the better and only 32 percent for the worse. Trump 2.0, so far at least, is not inspiring the same economic optimism that defined much of his first term.

This has placed Republicans in a tricky spot—particularly as Trump flip-flops on tariffs. “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “If I have to pay a little bit more for something, I'm all for it to get America right again,” said Missouri Rep. Mark Alford. Both are standing behind Trump—expected and reasonable behavior from cabinet officials and elected Republicans. But if we learned anything from 2024, it’s that most Americans are not “all for” paying more for everyday items. Vulnerable Republicans will have to tread carefully if Trump’s economic numbers don’t start rebounding.

Some of Trump’s actions do remain quite popular. Voters rate his immigration policy highly, for example. But the economy is king. And for now, Trump’s approvals are trending in the wrong direction—both on the economy and overall. That should worry Republicans.