To the four congressional districts mentioned, I'll add my own. That is the 3rd District in Colorado, which occupies a huge geographical area in western Colorado that is currently represented by the Republican nutjob, Lauren Boebert. She won the last election versus Adam Frisch, a Democrat from the elitist liberal enclave of Aspen, by some 500 votes and has since moved to a district that is even more reliably conservative.
Despite being an elected local official in Aspen, Frisch is running as a centrist Democrat, particularly by announcing his intention to become part of the bipartisan "Problem Solver's Caucus" in the House. His Republican opponent is a lawyer from the relatively large city of Grand Junction, who is clearly more conservative but not to the extreme of Boebert.
A "good government" group called "Restore the Balance" has formed in Grand Junction. I suspect that opposition to Boebert's extremism has had a lot to do with that, because as a centrist myself -- I regard the organization as very objective and credible. They have publicized position statements by candidates for various offices and rated them according to criteria that are very transparent. That rating gives Frisch a modest edge over his opponent, and for lack of a credible candidate who would be truly independent of the House leadership of either major party, I voted for him. Colorado will vote for Harris and Biden (with me voting for the candidate of the Approval Voting Party) but the 3rd District promises to be close.
Trump/Rs are currently running _3 nationally. Rs lead in 6/7 House races in MN, 2 of the flips in CA. If Trump wins by just 1.5, Rs pick up 5 seats. Any more, the number will go between 10-15. I think 20 R pickups is the ceiling.
No chance the Rs lose the house with a Trump victory, which I see as certain. However, evidence out of GA that came in yesterday showing 613,000 voters HAD NOT VOTED in 2020 and were from deeply Trumpy areas suggests I could be off by another 5 seats even in my most optimistic prediction.
Texas's numbers yesterday were exactly as I predicted. Rs hold a 785,000 lead, or 11-12% based on primary voting patterns. Ted Cruz will win by 5-6. Trump will win TX by 10 minimum.
Arizona yesterday continued to pile it on, with the GOP advantage now at 163,300. The only bright spot for Ds there is that finally Rs have very slightly pulled ahead in % voted---but since Rs have a 300,000 statewide advantage, that doesn't do Ds much good. Trump +5 to 6 in AZ, Lake wins the Senate there by 1.
Same story in NV, as Rs now have a historical 40,000 early vote lead (a complete flip of 2020 when Ds had a 40,000 lead). John Ralston there has thrown in the towel. Trump wins NV, and one, maybe two of those seats go R. Brown loses by 3.
NC is where it has had it since July R+4, Trump wins easily, western red turnout far greater than ever dreamed after the hurricane. For the second day in a row Rs led early voting, which is unheard of.
PA still sees Ds a minimum of 750,000 below their necessary # going into election day. Trump +2, McCormick takes that senate seat, probably a House pickup here too.
Bubbling beneath all this is the reality that no pollster anywhere seems to grasp. There is a very large, never-polled invisible body of first time voters. We are seeing it in every single primary, usually 20-25% of GOP voters. This is partially the "Trump underpoll" but apparently this time it goes behond that. This is a seething angry electorate that the JHoax News media just does not want to "catch."
Ruy, I say this in all seriousness: if Ds want to remain a major functioning party, the adults better get control quick and it will begin with absolutely squelching ANY "resist" nonsense from the progs and beginning to act like a real "care about America" party again who will work with Trump. Anything short of that, you'll go the way of the Whigs in six years.
Ruy didn't write this piece--for the umpteenth time. If you don't want to engage in a decent and courteous manner, I'm happy to refund your money and cancel your subscription.
Just wanted to say I didn't see anything discourteous or indecent in your post. I thought you were just saying that Dems could come back if they move back towards their old party. I also think that, but I have been watching and it seems they are comfortable where they are. I don't think they are interested in the working-class anymore.
I agree Brandy, but he should get the man's name right. I like the approach of these folks at the Liberal Patriot, from what I've seen so far, seems pretty fair. They seem to understand that if we don't champion the respectful exchange of ideas, regardless of how much you dislike what you are hearing, the Republic will be lost. Though I am a little confused on who's writing what, but that's my issue, lol. God bless.
To the four congressional districts mentioned, I'll add my own. That is the 3rd District in Colorado, which occupies a huge geographical area in western Colorado that is currently represented by the Republican nutjob, Lauren Boebert. She won the last election versus Adam Frisch, a Democrat from the elitist liberal enclave of Aspen, by some 500 votes and has since moved to a district that is even more reliably conservative.
Despite being an elected local official in Aspen, Frisch is running as a centrist Democrat, particularly by announcing his intention to become part of the bipartisan "Problem Solver's Caucus" in the House. His Republican opponent is a lawyer from the relatively large city of Grand Junction, who is clearly more conservative but not to the extreme of Boebert.
A "good government" group called "Restore the Balance" has formed in Grand Junction. I suspect that opposition to Boebert's extremism has had a lot to do with that, because as a centrist myself -- I regard the organization as very objective and credible. They have publicized position statements by candidates for various offices and rated them according to criteria that are very transparent. That rating gives Frisch a modest edge over his opponent, and for lack of a credible candidate who would be truly independent of the House leadership of either major party, I voted for him. Colorado will vote for Harris and Biden (with me voting for the candidate of the Approval Voting Party) but the 3rd District promises to be close.
Trump/Rs are currently running _3 nationally. Rs lead in 6/7 House races in MN, 2 of the flips in CA. If Trump wins by just 1.5, Rs pick up 5 seats. Any more, the number will go between 10-15. I think 20 R pickups is the ceiling.
No chance the Rs lose the house with a Trump victory, which I see as certain. However, evidence out of GA that came in yesterday showing 613,000 voters HAD NOT VOTED in 2020 and were from deeply Trumpy areas suggests I could be off by another 5 seats even in my most optimistic prediction.
Texas's numbers yesterday were exactly as I predicted. Rs hold a 785,000 lead, or 11-12% based on primary voting patterns. Ted Cruz will win by 5-6. Trump will win TX by 10 minimum.
Arizona yesterday continued to pile it on, with the GOP advantage now at 163,300. The only bright spot for Ds there is that finally Rs have very slightly pulled ahead in % voted---but since Rs have a 300,000 statewide advantage, that doesn't do Ds much good. Trump +5 to 6 in AZ, Lake wins the Senate there by 1.
Same story in NV, as Rs now have a historical 40,000 early vote lead (a complete flip of 2020 when Ds had a 40,000 lead). John Ralston there has thrown in the towel. Trump wins NV, and one, maybe two of those seats go R. Brown loses by 3.
NC is where it has had it since July R+4, Trump wins easily, western red turnout far greater than ever dreamed after the hurricane. For the second day in a row Rs led early voting, which is unheard of.
PA still sees Ds a minimum of 750,000 below their necessary # going into election day. Trump +2, McCormick takes that senate seat, probably a House pickup here too.
Bubbling beneath all this is the reality that no pollster anywhere seems to grasp. There is a very large, never-polled invisible body of first time voters. We are seeing it in every single primary, usually 20-25% of GOP voters. This is partially the "Trump underpoll" but apparently this time it goes behond that. This is a seething angry electorate that the JHoax News media just does not want to "catch."
Ruy, I say this in all seriousness: if Ds want to remain a major functioning party, the adults better get control quick and it will begin with absolutely squelching ANY "resist" nonsense from the progs and beginning to act like a real "care about America" party again who will work with Trump. Anything short of that, you'll go the way of the Whigs in six years.
Ruy didn't write this piece--for the umpteenth time. If you don't want to engage in a decent and courteous manner, I'm happy to refund your money and cancel your subscription.
Just wanted to say I didn't see anything discourteous or indecent in your post. I thought you were just saying that Dems could come back if they move back towards their old party. I also think that, but I have been watching and it seems they are comfortable where they are. I don't think they are interested in the working-class anymore.
I agree Brandy, but he should get the man's name right. I like the approach of these folks at the Liberal Patriot, from what I've seen so far, seems pretty fair. They seem to understand that if we don't champion the respectful exchange of ideas, regardless of how much you dislike what you are hearing, the Republic will be lost. Though I am a little confused on who's writing what, but that's my issue, lol. God bless.
Mr. Schweikart makes the same mistake every time he posts. Having said that, Mr. Halpin comes off as thin skinned.
I wish I had a dollar for every time someone mis-prounced my name....
I get that.