A Final House Preview

Plus 4 races I’m watching closely on election night.

Throughout the late summer and early fall, Democrats enjoyed a consistent two-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. With three days to go, that lead is gone. The latest averages show a dead heat, reflecting expert consensus that the race for the House sits on a knife’s edge. 

Amidst a deluge of tied polling, I’m sure many of you are sick of hearing phrases like “photo finish” and “down to the wire.” And you’re right: we’re just about running out of ways to say that this thing is close. Under the surface, however, a few important indicators point to who might hold the Speaker’s gavel come January.  

Two years ago, catastrophic candidate quality nearly prevented the GOP from winning back the House. This year, the NRCC played a far more active role in the primaries—an investment that likely pays dividends in the red-ish seats Republicans fumbled last time around. Take Maine’s 2nd District (Trump +6). In 2022, Blue Dog Democrat Jared Golden handily defeated the same Republican he beat in 2018. This year, however, he faces Austin Theriault, a 30-year old state legislator and former race car driver—undoubtedly a tougher challenge. 

Notable exceptions persist (see: Joe Kent in WA-03), but overall, Republicans have dodged the same level of candidate selection self-sabotage. The GOP also benefits from a higher tally of safe seats. Sabato’s Crystal Ball places 201 seats as “safe” or “likely” Republican, compared to 191 for the Democrats. 

Though Republicans may start with the high ground, Democrats have reasons for optimism in the close races. Of the 50 districts with the most outside spending—a good heuristic for the competitive landscape—Biden won 37 of them, including 24 by 5+ points and 13 by 10+ points. Though that might suggest a tough year for Democrats, six of thirteen double-digit Biden districts are actually held by Republicans. Even if Harris underperforms her boss, that’s some pretty friendly turf for House Democrats! 

Consider this hypothetical: if Democrats defeat Republican incumbents only in districts that Biden won by 5+ points, they would gain nine seats. If Republicans do the same in every single Trump-won district, they would pick up just five seats. Such an outcome is unlikely—split-ticket voting isn’t completely dead!—but the example illustrates that Democrats have plenty of obvious spots to play offense.

The main reason for Democratic optimism, however, is money. Heaps and heaps of money. Across the aforementioned 50 districts, Democratic PACs have outspent Republican groups in 35 of them, often by several million dollars. The disparity is matched in candidate fundraising. In “toss-up” and “lean” districts, Democratic candidates raised an average of $2 million in Q3, compared to under $800k for Republicans. 

Though it remains likely that the House matches the presidential race, some Democrats I’ve spoken to are more bullish about their House chances—regardless of the presidential outcome. With such a profound cash advantage, Democrats hope their candidates can establish brands independent of Harris and outrun the top of the ticket. Even a gap of a couple points could prove decisive in narrow Trump districts like California’s 41st, Wisconsin’s 3rd, or Iowa’s 1st. 

With these competing factors in mind, let’s take a closer look at four districts I’ll be watching on election night. 

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New York’s 4th District (Rep. Anthony D’Esposito)

In a 2022 rematch, freshman Republican Anthony D’Esposito takes on Democrat Laura Gillen. A wealthy district in southern Long Island, NY-04 rocketed to the right in 2022’s localized red wave—despite it being a double-digit Biden district. Democrats are counting on a rebound at the presidential level to carry Gillen across the finish line. Should Harris carry the district by anything close to Biden’s 2020 margin, D’Esposito will likely lose—no matter his individual candidate quality. This should be the single best pick-up opportunity for Democrats (ignoring redistricting flips). If NY-04 somehow stays in the GOP column, Democrats are in for a long night. This district will also offer clues as to whether New York is headed for the big rightward swing some pundits expect. 

Pennsylvania’s 8th District (Rep. Matt Cartwright)

One of a handful of Trump-district Democrats, Matt Cartwright continues to defy political gravity with a strong local brand and sizable crossover support. Cartwright won by 3.5 points in 2020 as Trump carried the 8th by four. This year he faces Rob Bresnahan, the owner of a construction company in Luzerne County. An October poll from Noble Predictive Insights had good news for the incumbent: Cartwright led by seven, even as Trump led Harris by three. A ten-point overperformance would be somewhat surprising, but Cartwright probably survives another presidential cycle as long as Harris doesn’t completely collapse in Northeastern Pennsylvania. 

Michigan’s 7th District (Open—Rep. Elissa Slotkin)

The Lansing-based 7th District may well be this year’s ultimate battleground: an open Biden +1 seat in a presidential swing state that also features a close Senate contest. More than $25 million in outside spending has poured into the race between Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, enough to make it the 4th most expensive House race in the country. And unlike most other battlegrounds, Republican groups have actually narrowly outspent their Democratic counterparts. This is one of the best open-seat opportunities for Republicans, especially if Trump maintains or improves upon his 2020 performance in Central Michigan. The Hertel campaign will rely on strong turnout from Michigan State students and continued leftward swings in the suburban townships that dot the district’s southeastern corner. 

Texas’s 34th District (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez)

Democrats are on upset watch in this South Texas border district. Incumbent Vicente Gonzalez, who shifted districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle, lacks longstanding ties to much of his new territory which stretches north from Brownsville to Kingsville. Though Biden carried the district by 15.5 points, Gonzalez beat Republican Mayra Flores by only eight points two years ago. Flores is back for a rematch—and this year she’s armed with significant spending support from national Republicans. A warning sign for Democrats, Flores actually out-raised Gonzalez in Q3—just one of two battleground Republicans to do so. Gonzalez probably scrapes by thanks to the 34th’s partisan lean, but if the Rio Grande Valley swings red once again, Flores could sneak past him. A Gonzalez loss would represent a new low for Democrats with Texas Hispanics. 

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A final word of caution as we head into Election Day. Though the battleground races remain tight, this does not guarantee that the final seat shares will be incredibly close.

These outcomes are correlated with one another. So while a narrow majority might be the modal outcome, don’t be shocked if the toss-ups break one way and either party hits 230+ seats.

Three days to go!