Where is the Bob Woodward book on who was actually the president the last 4 years while Biden was mostly a figurehead? I think the sense that we were lied to for four years is real, and that Democrats only acknowledged the truth when George Clooney said it was ok to. Look at Biden’s entire career / nothing about it lines with with his lurch to the left on every issue, particularly immigration, but also the extreme DEI and relentless extreme trans stuff. The “interview” with Dylan Mulvaney is a particular low point that Joe Biden of the previous 40 years wouldn’t recognize.
Better analysis than most of what I have seen from the Right which is afflicted by Victory Disease.
Couple of points though.
1. It wasn't PSTD from COVID it was from the reaction to COVID by TPTB. In Europe, that was the Establishment parties. Here in our more decentralized system it was mostly the Democrats and it persisted insanely long.
2. The other 40% of the voters identifying other issues have to have broken for Harris by equally lopsided margins to produce the results we saw.
3. Harris did run away from her past unpopular positions. A lot of people on the Right thought she was lying while the Left thought she was weak.
4. I welcome the decline in racial polarization though class polarization is equally capable of producing civil war. I agree that becoming the party of the working man again would help the Democrats win elections. I call this Make the Democratic Party Great Again. It would be more useful for you guys to cross the line and help us keep the Republicans from falling back into their old ways.
5 The gender gap among young people combined with the intense politicization of everything is going to have implications far beyond elections. A lack of trust between the sexes, not to mention the other 57 genders, at an age when young people are forming attachments will have profound effects on culture and demographics.
6. The new norm is also the old (1824-1856) norm. Only one President was elected twice and one of the major parties completely disappeared. We all know how that ended.
The religious obsession with victimhood and the oppressed became a firing squad. After you silence all your enemies, you start coming for each other. This has always been the end result of censorship witch hunts. 🧙♀️ Dems have to stop being scared of these people.
Last thing, most of the country was sick to death of the dead horse called J6. It was overused, blown out of proportion, and a political weapon. Very few people in present-day America have that kind of attention span. GenZ is entirely disconnected from this.
If 150,000 votes had gone differently in a very few states the electoral college would have come down in Democrats favor and the country would be in an entirely different discussion. The story is actually the same either way, and the tendency was there for all to see on Catalist four years ago.
The electorate continues to depolarize as you say and to become less entrenched with one party or another. What I'm interested to see is what will Republicans and the Trump administration do.
Republicans have two very oppositional forces within their party. Libertarians like lots of low wage immigration and low cost overseas manufacture. The Rand Paul, Vivek Ramaswamy types, and Elon Musk too to some extent. Then there are the "New Conservatives" of anti immigrant and reshoring. The J D Vance, Tom Cotton, Trump Jr types.
And lastly the constraints of a big debt load and out of control deficit. Who pays? Someone has to no matter which way you cut it. Trump plus "progressives" believe we can invent more money via Modern Monetary Theory. I don't believe in spinning gold from straw. Both big Trump trade and immigration policies are inflationary. A lot of balancing to be done.
There are three factions with the Republican Party. The GOPe is the major contender against the New Republicans. Libertarians are a small faction now. Rand Paul for sure but you have misplaced Vivek and perhaps Elon who are all in with Trump.
Interesting point about MMT, the Trump people didn't explicitly endorse it the way the Left did but they sometimes behaved as if they did. Growing out of the debt isn't MMT as long as it works but there is some question about this. Elon's plan to cut $2T from the budget would help, if it works. I have seem some analysis that says there is $1T to be had by eliminating grants to state and local governments. The counterpoint is that this would force the state and local governments to raise taxes to replace the lost funds. Or would they. What these grants do is remove accountability from finance. Trump has appropriately ruled out whacking Social Security and Medicare so that big chunk of money is off the table. There is some amount of fraud in these programs, especially Medicare, and that would be fair game.
Nailed it with these, Ruy. I think I'd disagree with the last one. The Democrats are in grave danger. ("Is there any other kind?" But I digress). So far despite your warnings there is no evidence whatsoever they have come to grips with the two civil wars (Jews/Israel vs. Hamas/Pales; Inner city residents vs. Illegal aliens). Now, President Trump is actually going to bail them out of the latter by removing the problem. But even after the election they are stuck with Civil War #1. However, a new civil war in the Democrat party is brewing namely the techhies vs. the greens. Trump has already identified the need for natural gas and nuclear in mass quantities. These are the ONLY things that will produce the grid AI needs and as such, the "green transition" is chowdermeal. It absolutely cannot happen and will, to the extent Ds continue to push it, further put a wedge between those needing massive amounts of energy for AI (techhies) and the greens.
All that means that perhaps "change" elections are NOT going to be the rule. People forget Trump had the country humming like a Porshce before Covid hit and likely will again. So, if---long way away---but if the country leaves at Reagan-level greatness to the veep (Vance), he would see a Bush type landslide. And yes, I fully understand what that term entails. Meanwhile, the structural changes that will be brought through the census redistricting of at least 6 EVs and, if red states are recompensed for those EVs stolen from them in 2020's census, 20 EVs, will make the Electoral College all but impossible for Democrats. And now that Trump has won the popular vote as well, there can be no "Let's do away with the Electoral College" stuff. If I am a leader in the Democrat Party, I would be engaging in a serious top to bottom remake of the party away from Green, Woke, and illegal invasion.
The grid upgrades are needed for the Electric Vehicle push too. Perhaps more than AI since the data centers can be co-located with a reactor or hydro project. But EVs require a lot of upgrades to the distribution part of the grid too. While I think the national politics will move away from EVs, you still have the state mandates in places like CA and WA.
Biden was not an albatross around Harris's neck. He was the wind beneath her wings: she would never have been a candidate if he hadn't picked her to be his running mate, and he gave her the opportunity to gain executive experience in that position by delegating to her responsibilities for policies on AI, space, and immigration. Moreover, she readily pointed to the Biden Administration's accomplishments as her own. The correct metaphor is a jerry-built platform that was too shaky and too low to elevate her to the Presidency.
If we are allowed now to occasionally start stating truths that would get us a stern dressing down from the editors of The Atlantic... allow me to say 'Lead the men and the women will follow.'
Who is going to win the gender divide? The one who convinces the stronger sex to stand up for themselves and believe in something besides being blandly agreeable. And they'll win it by a landslide.
I think that's an excellent summary of the main election take-aways, especially points 1 through 8.
One side comment: For Democrats (such as me), the "original sin" of this election cycle was Biden's failure to pass the torch two years ago. After that, tough to win.
Where is the Bob Woodward book on who was actually the president the last 4 years while Biden was mostly a figurehead? I think the sense that we were lied to for four years is real, and that Democrats only acknowledged the truth when George Clooney said it was ok to. Look at Biden’s entire career / nothing about it lines with with his lurch to the left on every issue, particularly immigration, but also the extreme DEI and relentless extreme trans stuff. The “interview” with Dylan Mulvaney is a particular low point that Joe Biden of the previous 40 years wouldn’t recognize.
What is a bit strange is that none of these points were unknown before the election so nobody should have been very surprised by the results
Better analysis than most of what I have seen from the Right which is afflicted by Victory Disease.
Couple of points though.
1. It wasn't PSTD from COVID it was from the reaction to COVID by TPTB. In Europe, that was the Establishment parties. Here in our more decentralized system it was mostly the Democrats and it persisted insanely long.
2. The other 40% of the voters identifying other issues have to have broken for Harris by equally lopsided margins to produce the results we saw.
3. Harris did run away from her past unpopular positions. A lot of people on the Right thought she was lying while the Left thought she was weak.
4. I welcome the decline in racial polarization though class polarization is equally capable of producing civil war. I agree that becoming the party of the working man again would help the Democrats win elections. I call this Make the Democratic Party Great Again. It would be more useful for you guys to cross the line and help us keep the Republicans from falling back into their old ways.
5 The gender gap among young people combined with the intense politicization of everything is going to have implications far beyond elections. A lack of trust between the sexes, not to mention the other 57 genders, at an age when young people are forming attachments will have profound effects on culture and demographics.
6. The new norm is also the old (1824-1856) norm. Only one President was elected twice and one of the major parties completely disappeared. We all know how that ended.
"Biden was an albatross around Harris’s campaign."
If you ask me, he did this on purpose. Nobody was happier on election night than Joe Biden.
Dr. Jill was happier.
Touche
The religious obsession with victimhood and the oppressed became a firing squad. After you silence all your enemies, you start coming for each other. This has always been the end result of censorship witch hunts. 🧙♀️ Dems have to stop being scared of these people.
Last thing, most of the country was sick to death of the dead horse called J6. It was overused, blown out of proportion, and a political weapon. Very few people in present-day America have that kind of attention span. GenZ is entirely disconnected from this.
If 150,000 votes had gone differently in a very few states the electoral college would have come down in Democrats favor and the country would be in an entirely different discussion. The story is actually the same either way, and the tendency was there for all to see on Catalist four years ago.
The electorate continues to depolarize as you say and to become less entrenched with one party or another. What I'm interested to see is what will Republicans and the Trump administration do.
Republicans have two very oppositional forces within their party. Libertarians like lots of low wage immigration and low cost overseas manufacture. The Rand Paul, Vivek Ramaswamy types, and Elon Musk too to some extent. Then there are the "New Conservatives" of anti immigrant and reshoring. The J D Vance, Tom Cotton, Trump Jr types.
And lastly the constraints of a big debt load and out of control deficit. Who pays? Someone has to no matter which way you cut it. Trump plus "progressives" believe we can invent more money via Modern Monetary Theory. I don't believe in spinning gold from straw. Both big Trump trade and immigration policies are inflationary. A lot of balancing to be done.
There are three factions with the Republican Party. The GOPe is the major contender against the New Republicans. Libertarians are a small faction now. Rand Paul for sure but you have misplaced Vivek and perhaps Elon who are all in with Trump.
Interesting point about MMT, the Trump people didn't explicitly endorse it the way the Left did but they sometimes behaved as if they did. Growing out of the debt isn't MMT as long as it works but there is some question about this. Elon's plan to cut $2T from the budget would help, if it works. I have seem some analysis that says there is $1T to be had by eliminating grants to state and local governments. The counterpoint is that this would force the state and local governments to raise taxes to replace the lost funds. Or would they. What these grants do is remove accountability from finance. Trump has appropriately ruled out whacking Social Security and Medicare so that big chunk of money is off the table. There is some amount of fraud in these programs, especially Medicare, and that would be fair game.
Nailed it with these, Ruy. I think I'd disagree with the last one. The Democrats are in grave danger. ("Is there any other kind?" But I digress). So far despite your warnings there is no evidence whatsoever they have come to grips with the two civil wars (Jews/Israel vs. Hamas/Pales; Inner city residents vs. Illegal aliens). Now, President Trump is actually going to bail them out of the latter by removing the problem. But even after the election they are stuck with Civil War #1. However, a new civil war in the Democrat party is brewing namely the techhies vs. the greens. Trump has already identified the need for natural gas and nuclear in mass quantities. These are the ONLY things that will produce the grid AI needs and as such, the "green transition" is chowdermeal. It absolutely cannot happen and will, to the extent Ds continue to push it, further put a wedge between those needing massive amounts of energy for AI (techhies) and the greens.
All that means that perhaps "change" elections are NOT going to be the rule. People forget Trump had the country humming like a Porshce before Covid hit and likely will again. So, if---long way away---but if the country leaves at Reagan-level greatness to the veep (Vance), he would see a Bush type landslide. And yes, I fully understand what that term entails. Meanwhile, the structural changes that will be brought through the census redistricting of at least 6 EVs and, if red states are recompensed for those EVs stolen from them in 2020's census, 20 EVs, will make the Electoral College all but impossible for Democrats. And now that Trump has won the popular vote as well, there can be no "Let's do away with the Electoral College" stuff. If I am a leader in the Democrat Party, I would be engaging in a serious top to bottom remake of the party away from Green, Woke, and illegal invasion.
The grid upgrades are needed for the Electric Vehicle push too. Perhaps more than AI since the data centers can be co-located with a reactor or hydro project. But EVs require a lot of upgrades to the distribution part of the grid too. While I think the national politics will move away from EVs, you still have the state mandates in places like CA and WA.
Biden was not an albatross around Harris's neck. He was the wind beneath her wings: she would never have been a candidate if he hadn't picked her to be his running mate, and he gave her the opportunity to gain executive experience in that position by delegating to her responsibilities for policies on AI, space, and immigration. Moreover, she readily pointed to the Biden Administration's accomplishments as her own. The correct metaphor is a jerry-built platform that was too shaky and too low to elevate her to the Presidency.
If we are allowed now to occasionally start stating truths that would get us a stern dressing down from the editors of The Atlantic... allow me to say 'Lead the men and the women will follow.'
Who is going to win the gender divide? The one who convinces the stronger sex to stand up for themselves and believe in something besides being blandly agreeable. And they'll win it by a landslide.
I think that's an excellent summary of the main election take-aways, especially points 1 through 8.
One side comment: For Democrats (such as me), the "original sin" of this election cycle was Biden's failure to pass the torch two years ago. After that, tough to win.