Will the Enthusiasm Gap Matter in 2024?

Just 39 percent of voters are enthusiastic about the impending rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The lack of excitement is no surprise: both men are deeply unpopular.

What is surprising, however, is the large partisan enthusiasm gap. According to fresh polling from Monmouth, 63 percent of Republicans are “very” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about the election, compared to just 36 percent of Democrats. This 27-point gap places Democratic enthusiasm closer to that of independents—a group that usually slots in significantly below firmer partisans.

This reluctance extends across key components of the Democratic coalition. Younger voters are less enthusiastic than those 55+ and non-white voters are less enthusiastic than white non-college voters—both findings reflected in polling that shows deflated Democratic margins with these groups. 

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Battleground surveys from Fox News should heighten Democratic concern. Republicans also hold an interest advantage—a far lower bar than enthusiasm—in 3 of 4 swing states. In Georgia, 79 percent of Democrats say they are “extremely” or “very” interested in the presidential election, falling short of the 86 percent of Republicans who say the same. Georgia also happens to be Biden’s worst battleground thus far. Wisconsin, where partisan interest is tied, is the incumbent’s best swing state. Building interest and enthusiasm among Democrats will be crucial to improving his poll numbers (this, of course, is easier said than done).

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While certainly a warning sign, losing the enthusiasm war is not necessarily a death knell for Biden. In 2012, Barack Obama won reelection despite a Republican enthusiasm advantage (though it was significantly smaller than Biden’s deficit today). There remains five months to rally the troops and narrow the gap. But Trump antagonism alone is not enough to hold the presidency. The reelect must work hard to turn reluctant supporters—who risk staying home or voting third party—into enthusiastic ones who can build grassroots momentum for the campaign.