Why Did Democrats Lose Their Edge with Women?

The 2024 election was supposed to showcase the power of women. At least, that’s what Kamala Harris’s campaign believed. After Harris announced her candidacy in late July, there appeared to be a groundswell of support for her among women. At the same time, the issue of gender began to dominate the campaign as well as the culture—from “childless cat ladies” and “brat summer” to E. Jean Carroll and abortion—which seemed to engage more women voters. There was also the historic nature of Harris’s attempt to become the first female president. And while Harris did her best to downplay this identity dynamic, those around her were all too eager to lean into it.

Some Democrats believed that the gender dynamic would be a key part of Harris’s path to victory. One prominent pollster went so far as to theorize about the existence of female “ghost voters” who weren’t being captured by the polls but who would turn out to help make Harris president. Other Democrats saw abortion rights as a key motivating issue and believed it would help propel Harris to victory. Party strategists eagerly pointed to early voting figures suggesting that women were outpacing their male peers as a sign that Harris was benefiting from a post-Dobbs backlash.

But this supposed “pink wave” never materialized. In fact, despite all the hype, Harris ended up losing ground with women. It’s thus worth interrogating: how did this happen? Why did Kamala Harris, who aimed to be the first female president and championed abortion and women’s rights, fail to capture widely expected historic turnout and support from women?

There were some early signs that Harris was doing well with women voters. She polled as high as 55 percent with women in pre-election polling averages, mirroring the vote share of other recently successful Democratic nominees like Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Another reason for optimism? Women have historically made up a greater share of the electorate than men and turned out at a higher rate. Notably, a majority of women have not voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

In the end, polls overestimated the vice president’s advantage, as she earned only 52 percent of women—less than Biden and even Hillary Clinton (54 percent). Moreover, Harris saw an erosion of female support across nearly every demographic relative to 2020, signaling wide dissatisfaction. This included dropping six points with non-white working-class women and five points with working-class women overall. She even lost four points with college women, a group thought to be trending in Democrats’ direction in recent years.

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Sources: Jacobin, AP VoteCast

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As AEI’s Daniel Cox has observed, the widespread coverage of Trump’s gains with young men have obfuscated the fact that he also gained ground with young women. After women between the ages of 18 and 29 moved three points in his direction between 2016 and 2020, they swung rightward by an even greater eight-point margin over the last four years, with fully 41 percent supporting him in 2024.

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The drop-off is striking for a few reasons. First, and perhaps most obviously, female voters were a central focus of Democrats’ messaging with Harris at the top of the ticket, starting all the way back at the Democratic National Convention. According to a New York Times analysis, some of the top words spoken at the DNC were “women,” “mother,” and “abortion.”

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Source: New York Times.

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Additionally, Harris leaned heavily on famous female surrogates during the campaign.

Beyoncé headlined a Houston campaign rally about women’s rights and reproductive freedom. Oprah hosted an interview centered on abortion rights. Michelle Obama gave a passionate call to men late in the campaign to take women’s rights seriously. On Election Eve, Lady Gaga said, “For more of this country’s life, women didn’t have a voice…but tomorrow, women will be part of making this decision.” And, of course, arguably the biggest show of support came from pop superstar Taylor Swift, who endorsed Harris immediately following the September presidential debate.

But even these high-level female endorsements weren’t enough to give Harris a greater advantage with women than her Democratic predecessors enjoyed.

One of the biggest curiosities is why the issue of abortion rights—and Harris’s effort to champion herself as a defender of them—didn’t lead to more support for Harris. The truth is that while voters across the spectrum support abortion rights, including many in deep-red states, that hasn’t always translated into support for the Democrats who campaigned hard for them. Part of the reason for this is that voters who are pro-choice don’t always prioritize the issue of abortion when choosing between candidates. Like the broader electorate, women often cared more about cost of living and the economy, issues on which Trump held an advantage. A pre-election KFF poll found the top issue for women was inflation (36 percent) followed by democracy (24 percent). Abortion tied immigration for third place at 13 percent.

Still, the Harris campaign doubled down on women’s rights in the election’s final stretch. One study found that by October, Harris talked about these issues in her ads more often than any other. The campaign further combined its summer message about freedom and abortion with Biden’s earlier theme about “democracy in danger.” At the same event where Lady Gaga spoke, Oprah warned, “If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to cast a ballot again.”

While women trusted Harris over Trump on abortion and democracy, many cared more about other issues. Some seemed to even resent that, in their view, Harris thought she could win their vote by appealing primarily on women’s issues. As Pamela Paul wrote after the election, “Apart from promising to safeguard abortion rights, the Harris campaign didn’t do nearly enough to address other issues important to women, including the ‘kitchen table’ economy, education, gun control, health care, the environment, and immigration.”

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The Democrats’ struggles with women are in some ways not all that surprising. Gender politics are complex, and voters contain multitudes. Of course, many women cared deeply about abortion rights. But the results were a good reminder that women also often care about the same things as everyone else, including the ability to provide for their families and pay their bills.

As the party picks up the pieces from the last election and charts a path forward, they would do well to understand why they lost ground with this core part of their base, especially with those who are working-class and non-white. They will need to reclaim the trust of voters who are uncertain about their future, which starts by understanding why they lost it in the first place.

Jason Thurlkill is a communications strategist and former reporter for The Hotline and a New York Observer news site.