White Wealth Goes Blue
Rich, highly educated white voters continue to flock towards Democrats.
Though separated by just a few miles, Los Alamos and Rio Arriba counties—both nestled northwest of Santa Fe—are worlds apart politically. Los Alamos, home to the eponymous laboratory, is more than two-thirds white and the wealthiest county in New Mexico. A whopping 68 percent of residents have a bachelor’s degree and 43 percent have a postgraduate degree. The median household income approaches $150,000. In short, chock full of elites.
In contrast, Rio Arriba is two-thirds Hispanic with a median household income of $53,000. Just 17 percent have a college degree—less than half the national average. And in November, Rio Arriba shifted 14 points to the right as Trump turned in the best GOP performance there since 1972.
Los Alamos, meanwhile, shifted 4 points to the left—no small feat considering the breadth of Trump’s win—and delivered Harris a 30-point win. It was the best Democratic performance in Los Alamos since 1964 and the first time ever that Los Alamos voted to the left of Rio Arriba.
The political winds that propelled Los Alamos and Rio Arriba in opposite directions swept not just across the Land of Enchantment, but the entire country—a shift that highlights one of the most startling results of the 2024 election. For the first time since exit polls began tracking household income, Democrats did better with voters making more than $100,000 than with voters making less than $50,000.
Trump, meanwhile, became the first Republican since George H.W. Bush to win voters making less than $50,000. His 2-point win with this group—just about matching his popular-vote margin—marks an 11-point swing from Biden’s 54 percent to 45 percent win four years ago.
On the other hand, those making $100k or more (30 percent of the electorate) voted for Biden by 5 points and Harris by 6. A one-point shift to the left seems small, but in the context of a broad national shift to the right, any demographic group that moved towards Democrats is notable. Men shifted right. Women shifted right. Young voters shifted right. White, black, and Hispanic voters shifted right. But the richest voters shifted left.
Take the city of Mequon, Wisconsin—an 88 percent white Milwaukee suburb where the median income is $147,000 and 70 percent of residents have a bachelor’s degree. Though Wisconsin flipped to Trump, Mequon moved left. Harris’s narrow 0.4 point loss there was the best Democratic performance in at least half a century. Similar blue shifts rippled across the wealthy suburban counties of Waukesha and Ozaukee: Harris’s vote share was Democrats’ highest since LBJ.
Voters with a postgraduate degree also shifted left. Aside from a slight dip in 2012—Mitt Romney was particularly popular with these types—the most educated voters have been trending left since the turn of the century. Even a pronounced national swing like in 2024 could not stop the inexorable march of these voters into the Democratic column.
What about highly educated, wealthy black voters? Could this phenomena have nothing to do with race and everything to do with class and education? Not quite. A look at the two wealthiest majority-black counties in the U.S.—Maryland’s Prince George’s and Charles counties—suggests that even these neighborhoods shifted slightly right. Woodmore, which is 80 percent black and has a median household income of $186,000, shifted 3 points towards Trump. Mitchellville, which is 85 percent black and has a median household income over $150,000, shifted 4 points towards Trump. Prince George’s as a whole moved 5.8 points to the right.
To be sure, these are more muted swings than many non-white areas. But it is also evidence that Harris could not replicate Obama’s (or Biden’s) margins even with rich, highly educated, black suburbanites—a remarkably favorable demographic combination for Democrats. Nationally, black voters with a college degree shifted from Obama +90 to Biden +79 to Harris +72.
From Los Alamos to Mequon, these data confirm that the voters most receptive to the Harris campaign (or dismissive of the Trump campaign) were older, whiter, wealthier, and well educated. The blue spots on the 2020-2024 swing map are retirement communities, rich suburbs, and towns bursting with PhD’s.
Such shifts make sense. These were the voters most removed from the inflation that drove Trump’s win. They were also the most enthusiastic about Harris’s “democracy on the ballot” message that came to dominate her campaign’s last month. In The New York Times’ last pre-election poll, 12 percent of white college voters chose “the state of democracy” as the issue most important to their vote. Just 4 percent of white non-college voters and 3 percent of non-white, non-college voters said the same.
There are, of course, still plenty of rich Republicans and poor Democrats. Trends are not absolute. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest there were 20 million Trump voters with household incomes over $100k and a similar number of Harris voters under $50k. Even if we use educational attainment, Harris still won around 35 million working-class (non-college) votes.
But these shifts do matter. And right now the Democratic platform is resonating with well-heeled elites and falling flat with average Americans—a trend that Democrats should not ignore.
The above is not hard to understand. No administration in US history, catered to the wealthy, more than Biden/Harris. Inflation killed the living standards of the bottom half of US earners. The asset heavy, however, have rarely had it so good. Home values and stocks have soared. Climate dollars, often finance Dem donor green companies, that could never survive, without tax payer subsidy.
Biden devoted much of his efforts to student loan forgiveness. No one carries more student debt than Americans with graduate degrees. Doctors, lawyers, MBAs, PHD engineers, and their ilk, tend to marry each other. Under Biden's attempted plan, a 26 year old lawyer, married to a 25 year old MBA, earning $250K together, annually, could have had $40K of student loan forgiveness, under the right circumstance. No one mentioned, as young people they were already earning more than 3X US median family income. On their way to half million dollar family incomes, or more, in middle age.
Biden handed these same people $7500 checks, when they bought an $80K luxury EV. Where Biden really improved their lives, was the human tsunami of cheap labor. Business owners are thrilled with employees that never complain about pay, unsafe working conditions or sexual harassment.
High income families were also thrilled. In the 90s, an educated, stay at home parent, was a status symbol. The parent spent their days devoted to kids under age 5, ferrying children to private school, and a plethora of other after school activities and social events. A house keeper appeared a few days a week.
Times have changed. A stay at home spouse, is an oddity, regardless of income. 2 professional parents, especially if they travel, require, near, round the clock assistance, basically, for 16 years. Multiple nannies, driving to multiple schools, is not uncommon. Toss in a full time housekeeper and/or cook, along with gardeners and pool care. Except for those with generational wealth, such a staff, year after year, is expensive. Biden made the lives of the wealthy, much more enjoyable, when he made domestic help, cheaper and more abundant.
It is not hard to imagine, why the wealthy, so overwhelmingly , supported Harris.
Great article. Great data. Should be required reading for "progressives."
It explains why my wife and I, Democrats for 50 years of voting, switched two years ago to be Independents, and voted for Trump (who we detest) in this year's election. Progressive/Democrats no longer speak for the people we always had advocated for. In fact, progressives often look down on them.