Since the 2008 election, Democrats have been counting on young voters as an essential part of what they called a "new American majority." But the 2024 election may have spelled the end of the youth vote as a dependable part of the Democrats' coalition.
There was a big dustup on Twitter this week in exactly this subject, or more obliquely how difficult it is to get established and comfortable as a young person in the current economy.
There were compelling stories from people like Rufo and others of wise decisions and lifestyles when working low wage jobs and eventually moving up. Others, older, boomers such as myself saying suck it up, things aren't so bad.
Unmentioned in much of the discussion is how much natural advantages some have. A JD Vance in this world will do fairly well no matter his circumstances, he is very bright. For the average guy trying to get established in 2024 things are maybe not so easy. Young men are hurt the most from competition of unregulated and illegal immigration.
People aren't dating, they aren't getting married, they aren't having kids. It's one of our most serious unrecognised issues.
Young people are low information voters. Peer opinions,the coolness factor , the vibe, matter. Republicans used to be uncool because they were bossy evangelicals telling people how to live their lives or corrupt corporate republicans in the pay of big Business. Today its the democrats who are moralizing school marmish snowflakes. They don't feel "safe" if someone misgenders them. They can't claim to be less corrupt than republicans either.
Paradoxically, Trump has ended up achieving coolness. He's kind of retro with his floppy suits and long tie and Palm Beach look. He's badass, surviving an assassination attempt and defying ALL the mainstream media. And he's funny. ( This is not just my personal opinion, I have two daughters in their twenties and I talk to them and to their friends).
Indeed, Trump is a consumate performer, a real genuis for marketing himself. Not my cup of tea but one of the big mistakes the Democrats have been making over his entire enagement cycle is mistake the cultural preference of elite college professional class as The One Way, a odd kind of secular religious view for conversion in my mind.
"moralizing school marmish snowflakes. "
Yes - it's reall elite liberal arts college campus activist type mode that has been over-extended into Real World (Imean I went to one of these in the 80s, I recognise the pattern - and even then it was off-putting to the non-political parts of the student body [which I was part of then], although they'd get wins from the college adminstration afraid to confront them, my recollection was it was consistently win power by strong-arming power but lose sympathy of broader body by just relentless moralizing and purity testing - which obviously can work in certain circumstances but as equally is bad mass political strategy over a longer-term).
The recent NYT opinion column with Douhat interview of Andreessen gave insights - one need not agree with the guy to see the roots of a backlash rooted in overreach in moralizing snowflakism, where even in private company context a certain fraction coming from the elite liberal arts colleges bring just unbounded moralizing - the scandal I had in my own company where a new hire went bananas over a non-american HR person referencing Columbus Day (oh the horrors to refer to the murderous Columbus... as the actual Federal holiday name) to tell the international offices US office closed that day.
Oh rubbish - this is no more true than the Obama era Democrats overdone 'Permanent Majority' nonsense.
It is cyclical. Declaring the Democrats dead is every bit as nonsensical as declaring them a permanent majority - it mistakes the moment for permanency and static.
Without doubt, Trump being a disorganized bungler (as his first Admin showed, but also what one can see from a cold eyed look at his operating business repeated bankrupcies*) prone to over-reach, there's almost certainly going to be a (possibly dead-cat bounce) backlash.
The question really becomes to what degree the Democratic party can realize the lesson that it has become culturally and agenda massively overweight to the socio-cultural concerns and preferences of the college-educated 'elite' (or better probably, white-collar professional classes) - where they are over-winning the uppermiddle class votes (to differentiate from the genuinely rich) and underperforming elsewhere.
The 'youth' examination above aligns with other data that says that the Democrats as an social group need to stop being captured by the culural agenda of the college educated Progressives where even if one can be sympathetic to parts of that agenda (or not), the manner which the College-Campus-Activist type politics has pursued is clearly a big loser, tone deaf, alientating to the non-activist - blind/dismissive to the non-college educated views.
(not to make the mistake to think American political parties have the mechanics for real party organization and discipline after the adoption of the 'democratic' primary system [stupid "reform" enabling party-capture by tiny minorities of electorate in a dual-party electoral structure])
Errors like pushing on College Loan Writeoff as a general Win-the-Youth positive - collapsing Youth into "youth going to fairly expensvie liberal arts colleges" which obviously is true for their online Progressive shouters - but statistically really completely wrong for half of the youth demo or more - the non-college goes. And over-over emphasizing the college route...
Or the sneering responses to MAGA culturally, where a bit of clear-eyed reflection says this is really fundamentally (which I can personally understand, not personally sympathetic culturally to that, but is politically dumb mode, Rogan, Wrestling all that.... need to engage if if one doesn't personally like it.).
Of course the big doubt is if the Democrats (again overall) can swallow this in the nearest term - seems unfortunatley likely not, probably another Presidential loss (since probably they'll overperform on MidTerms and get wrong lessons).
Here is a suggestion about young men, at least. Stop the damn Forever Wars. The Democrats have become the war party, helped along by a dying breed of Republican neocons that are definitely not MAGA. If you look up war monger in the dictionary, there is a picture of Dick Cheney who endorsed Harris who was out campaigning with his daughter. If there is a Democrat who isn't all in on Ukraine, I can't think of them.
I lived through Vietnam as a young man and the war hung over our head like the Sword of Damocles. Democrats, after the revolt against LBJ, were the peace party back them and young men gravitated toward them. Young women did too, back then. Not clear they would today but if the Democrats get their way about putting them in combat roles, maybe. And then there is the specter of nuclear war which Democrats seem all too eager to court. Contrast that with Trump who pledged to end the Ukraine war on Day One. I am doubtful that he will be successful that fast but at least he will quit pouring gas on the fire.
Importing Vietnam lessons is really Boomerism - yes you lived through Vietnam.... and that was Vietnam and conscription. It's not today.
Biden ended Afghanistan (good thing) and... no gain amongst young men.
the Ukraine has zero relevance. It's not sending US troops, it's not US instigated - Putin triggered not USA - and there's zero domestic political relevance (except if you are lapping up Russian agitprop)
Calling anyone who disagrees a Russian bot doesn't help the party either. Cancel culture at its finest. I hope Ruy are John note this exchange as they are hoping cancel culture is waning.
You might be lapping up Russian agitprop or simply just misapplying your Boomer concerns - your concerns - to modern youth. Disagreeing with you is not "cancel culture" - that's as snowflakey a reaction as the Progressives.
The reality is Biden left Afghanistan and.... no gain. Taking your 1960s era agenda and apping it to 2020s is just inverting the Progressive's errors. There's no youth relevance to Ukraine as a "Forever War" - no US troops, not even a real economic impact.
Afghanistan there was certainly the 'forever war' but the zero credit gotten for action there getting out (action I don't disagree with in the least) shows your assertion is just either off-base regurg or off-base boomerism on the idea of Forever war as relevance to the political moment.
Internal cultural agendas, disagreement on energy policy - real relevance. Ukraine, not at all.
I just gonna say it. The Democrat party is dominated by feminists and over-educated, staus-craving, vulnerable narcissist people, mostly female, that really don't give a shit about anything other than their wealth, political power and control of others.
"In the 2016 presidential primaries, 18-29 year olds gave more votes to Bernie Sanders, who ran as a "democratic socialist," than to the combined total of Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump." -- John B. Judis
It's a right of passage, a prerogative reserved for youth -- those not yet encumbered by careers, home mortgages, children and assorted other adult obligations -- to be starry-eyed liberals, leftists and even professed socialists. Most of us have adapted to the changes necessitated by changed life events, and the fact those changes alter our own world views and priorities. Congress is flush with too many political careerists. Term limits is not just a good answer, but arguably the only answer.
The appeal of right wing populism is real and not just restricted to the USA. The democrats need to listen but the pain at the voting booth will convince enough of them to really listen, especially to young men who used to be reliable supervisors as recently as the Obama administration
Is any really surprised how young men feel? The Democrats have been spitting in their faces over and over again on so many issues. Tomorrow is the first day towards normality in a long long time.
It's the economy, stupid. Kamala's DNC friends ignored the biggest issue.
The economy should always be the top issue.
100 EXECUTIVE ORDERS
Trump hopes Democrats get into Keystone Kop mode when 100 executive orders come out. Instead of waiting for Jan 20/21 and being shocked over 100 executive orders, the DNC should plan for the worse and have ALL Democrats respond overwhelmingly ONE TOPIC PER DAY in the following week.
HERE ARE THE TOPICS anticipated based on Project 2025 and other hints.
Day 1. Medicare. Reverses drug price negotiating which hurts the poor. Reduces Medicare spending that reduces the budget but hurts the poor. Gives more power to states (may require Congress) Attempts to eliminate Affordable Care Act.
Day 2. Dept of Homeland Security. Immigration. Expect Dreamers to be deported. Possible War on Mexico declared and detention camps set up. Democrats should pass Immigration bill that Trump killed last year.
Day 3. Dept of Health and Human Services renamed. Eliminates mailing of abortion pills. Adds pregnancy monitoring system. Eliminates fluoride in water. Requires extensive testing of all vaccines.
Day 4. Dept of Justice makeover makes it politicized. Declare War on Deep State and arrest all enemies for treason. Declare that anyone charged with treason is imprisoned without bail. Executions allowed for more crimes.
Day 5. Dept of Commerce starts new tariffs. NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin dismantled to stop Climate Change reporting.
This is the day to complain about tariffs and the effect on inflation,.
If the future of the Democrat party hinges on women like the four screeching women Senators on display this week, then there's no hope.
There was a big dustup on Twitter this week in exactly this subject, or more obliquely how difficult it is to get established and comfortable as a young person in the current economy.
There were compelling stories from people like Rufo and others of wise decisions and lifestyles when working low wage jobs and eventually moving up. Others, older, boomers such as myself saying suck it up, things aren't so bad.
Unmentioned in much of the discussion is how much natural advantages some have. A JD Vance in this world will do fairly well no matter his circumstances, he is very bright. For the average guy trying to get established in 2024 things are maybe not so easy. Young men are hurt the most from competition of unregulated and illegal immigration.
People aren't dating, they aren't getting married, they aren't having kids. It's one of our most serious unrecognised issues.
Young people are low information voters. Peer opinions,the coolness factor , the vibe, matter. Republicans used to be uncool because they were bossy evangelicals telling people how to live their lives or corrupt corporate republicans in the pay of big Business. Today its the democrats who are moralizing school marmish snowflakes. They don't feel "safe" if someone misgenders them. They can't claim to be less corrupt than republicans either.
Paradoxically, Trump has ended up achieving coolness. He's kind of retro with his floppy suits and long tie and Palm Beach look. He's badass, surviving an assassination attempt and defying ALL the mainstream media. And he's funny. ( This is not just my personal opinion, I have two daughters in their twenties and I talk to them and to their friends).
Indeed, Trump is a consumate performer, a real genuis for marketing himself. Not my cup of tea but one of the big mistakes the Democrats have been making over his entire enagement cycle is mistake the cultural preference of elite college professional class as The One Way, a odd kind of secular religious view for conversion in my mind.
"moralizing school marmish snowflakes. "
Yes - it's reall elite liberal arts college campus activist type mode that has been over-extended into Real World (Imean I went to one of these in the 80s, I recognise the pattern - and even then it was off-putting to the non-political parts of the student body [which I was part of then], although they'd get wins from the college adminstration afraid to confront them, my recollection was it was consistently win power by strong-arming power but lose sympathy of broader body by just relentless moralizing and purity testing - which obviously can work in certain circumstances but as equally is bad mass political strategy over a longer-term).
The recent NYT opinion column with Douhat interview of Andreessen gave insights - one need not agree with the guy to see the roots of a backlash rooted in overreach in moralizing snowflakism, where even in private company context a certain fraction coming from the elite liberal arts colleges bring just unbounded moralizing - the scandal I had in my own company where a new hire went bananas over a non-american HR person referencing Columbus Day (oh the horrors to refer to the murderous Columbus... as the actual Federal holiday name) to tell the international offices US office closed that day.
Quite simply the Democratic Party and its message are dying they just need to be buried
Oh rubbish - this is no more true than the Obama era Democrats overdone 'Permanent Majority' nonsense.
It is cyclical. Declaring the Democrats dead is every bit as nonsensical as declaring them a permanent majority - it mistakes the moment for permanency and static.
Without doubt, Trump being a disorganized bungler (as his first Admin showed, but also what one can see from a cold eyed look at his operating business repeated bankrupcies*) prone to over-reach, there's almost certainly going to be a (possibly dead-cat bounce) backlash.
The question really becomes to what degree the Democratic party can realize the lesson that it has become culturally and agenda massively overweight to the socio-cultural concerns and preferences of the college-educated 'elite' (or better probably, white-collar professional classes) - where they are over-winning the uppermiddle class votes (to differentiate from the genuinely rich) and underperforming elsewhere.
The 'youth' examination above aligns with other data that says that the Democrats as an social group need to stop being captured by the culural agenda of the college educated Progressives where even if one can be sympathetic to parts of that agenda (or not), the manner which the College-Campus-Activist type politics has pursued is clearly a big loser, tone deaf, alientating to the non-activist - blind/dismissive to the non-college educated views.
(not to make the mistake to think American political parties have the mechanics for real party organization and discipline after the adoption of the 'democratic' primary system [stupid "reform" enabling party-capture by tiny minorities of electorate in a dual-party electoral structure])
Errors like pushing on College Loan Writeoff as a general Win-the-Youth positive - collapsing Youth into "youth going to fairly expensvie liberal arts colleges" which obviously is true for their online Progressive shouters - but statistically really completely wrong for half of the youth demo or more - the non-college goes. And over-over emphasizing the college route...
Or the sneering responses to MAGA culturally, where a bit of clear-eyed reflection says this is really fundamentally (which I can personally understand, not personally sympathetic culturally to that, but is politically dumb mode, Rogan, Wrestling all that.... need to engage if if one doesn't personally like it.).
Of course the big doubt is if the Democrats (again overall) can swallow this in the nearest term - seems unfortunatley likely not, probably another Presidential loss (since probably they'll overperform on MidTerms and get wrong lessons).
Here is a suggestion about young men, at least. Stop the damn Forever Wars. The Democrats have become the war party, helped along by a dying breed of Republican neocons that are definitely not MAGA. If you look up war monger in the dictionary, there is a picture of Dick Cheney who endorsed Harris who was out campaigning with his daughter. If there is a Democrat who isn't all in on Ukraine, I can't think of them.
I lived through Vietnam as a young man and the war hung over our head like the Sword of Damocles. Democrats, after the revolt against LBJ, were the peace party back them and young men gravitated toward them. Young women did too, back then. Not clear they would today but if the Democrats get their way about putting them in combat roles, maybe. And then there is the specter of nuclear war which Democrats seem all too eager to court. Contrast that with Trump who pledged to end the Ukraine war on Day One. I am doubtful that he will be successful that fast but at least he will quit pouring gas on the fire.
Importing Vietnam lessons is really Boomerism - yes you lived through Vietnam.... and that was Vietnam and conscription. It's not today.
Biden ended Afghanistan (good thing) and... no gain amongst young men.
the Ukraine has zero relevance. It's not sending US troops, it's not US instigated - Putin triggered not USA - and there's zero domestic political relevance (except if you are lapping up Russian agitprop)
Calling anyone who disagrees a Russian bot doesn't help the party either. Cancel culture at its finest. I hope Ruy are John note this exchange as they are hoping cancel culture is waning.
Russian bot? Who called you a Russian Bot?
You might be lapping up Russian agitprop or simply just misapplying your Boomer concerns - your concerns - to modern youth. Disagreeing with you is not "cancel culture" - that's as snowflakey a reaction as the Progressives.
The reality is Biden left Afghanistan and.... no gain. Taking your 1960s era agenda and apping it to 2020s is just inverting the Progressive's errors. There's no youth relevance to Ukraine as a "Forever War" - no US troops, not even a real economic impact.
Afghanistan there was certainly the 'forever war' but the zero credit gotten for action there getting out (action I don't disagree with in the least) shows your assertion is just either off-base regurg or off-base boomerism on the idea of Forever war as relevance to the political moment.
Internal cultural agendas, disagreement on energy policy - real relevance. Ukraine, not at all.
Generational insults are a great way to build the party too.
I just gonna say it. The Democrat party is dominated by feminists and over-educated, staus-craving, vulnerable narcissist people, mostly female, that really don't give a shit about anything other than their wealth, political power and control of others.
"In the 2016 presidential primaries, 18-29 year olds gave more votes to Bernie Sanders, who ran as a "democratic socialist," than to the combined total of Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump." -- John B. Judis
It's a right of passage, a prerogative reserved for youth -- those not yet encumbered by careers, home mortgages, children and assorted other adult obligations -- to be starry-eyed liberals, leftists and even professed socialists. Most of us have adapted to the changes necessitated by changed life events, and the fact those changes alter our own world views and priorities. Congress is flush with too many political careerists. Term limits is not just a good answer, but arguably the only answer.
Yep especially $2, young men
But Democrats have also become the war party (Ukraine) and the woke party of transgenders that alienates young women.
Note that the AfD candidate for Chancellor and the NR candidate for president are women.
The appeal of right wing populism is real and not just restricted to the USA. The democrats need to listen but the pain at the voting booth will convince enough of them to really listen, especially to young men who used to be reliable supervisors as recently as the Obama administration
Is any really surprised how young men feel? The Democrats have been spitting in their faces over and over again on so many issues. Tomorrow is the first day towards normality in a long long time.
It's the economy, stupid. Kamala's DNC friends ignored the biggest issue.
The economy should always be the top issue.
100 EXECUTIVE ORDERS
Trump hopes Democrats get into Keystone Kop mode when 100 executive orders come out. Instead of waiting for Jan 20/21 and being shocked over 100 executive orders, the DNC should plan for the worse and have ALL Democrats respond overwhelmingly ONE TOPIC PER DAY in the following week.
HERE ARE THE TOPICS anticipated based on Project 2025 and other hints.
Day 1. Medicare. Reverses drug price negotiating which hurts the poor. Reduces Medicare spending that reduces the budget but hurts the poor. Gives more power to states (may require Congress) Attempts to eliminate Affordable Care Act.
Day 2. Dept of Homeland Security. Immigration. Expect Dreamers to be deported. Possible War on Mexico declared and detention camps set up. Democrats should pass Immigration bill that Trump killed last year.
Day 3. Dept of Health and Human Services renamed. Eliminates mailing of abortion pills. Adds pregnancy monitoring system. Eliminates fluoride in water. Requires extensive testing of all vaccines.
Day 4. Dept of Justice makeover makes it politicized. Declare War on Deep State and arrest all enemies for treason. Declare that anyone charged with treason is imprisoned without bail. Executions allowed for more crimes.
Day 5. Dept of Commerce starts new tariffs. NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin dismantled to stop Climate Change reporting.
This is the day to complain about tariffs and the effect on inflation,.