Trump Nostalgia Is Real—And Could Decide the Election

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Less than six months before Election Day, many Democrats remain bewildered by Donald Trump’s narrow, but stable, polling lead. “Do that many Americans really not remember his presidency?” But Trump’s current advantage is owed not to whether voters remember his presidency, but how. Comparing data from during the Trump administration to recent polling suggests that voters have substantially reassessed how they remember Trump’s term in office. 

Nowhere is this more obvious than in evaluations of Trump’s economic performance. Prior to the pandemic, voters were split in their assessment of his handling of the economy. A solid majority rated the economy as “excellent” or “good,” but fewer were willing to give Trump credit. Nevertheless, bolstered by low inflation and full employment, his 2019 economic numbers far exceeded his overall approval rating. 

Unsurprisingly, these came crashing down during the early months of the pandemic, but by the time the election rolled around, voters were once again growing more optimistic. In the fall of 2020, Trump’s handling of the economy earned a +3 net positive approval—a decent mark, but hardly spectacular. Fast forward to 2024 and that number has jumped to an astronomical +31.

The recent New York Times poll finds that 64 percent of voters approve of the way Trump handled the economy when he was president, while just 33 percent disapprove. The current president receives a near inverse rating: 34 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove. 

Whether illusory nostalgia or reflective frustration with Biden, a sizable chunk of the electorate who once disliked Trump’s handling of the economy now gives him credit. The importance of this shift is only magnified as poll after poll finds “the economy” or “inflation” as voters’ number one issue this year. 

Few voters—despite the Biden campaign’s best efforts—appear willing to tie Trump to the early-pandemic economy or, for that matter, January 6. When asked the one thing they remember most about Trump’s presidency, just 4 percent said “the pandemic” and 5 percent “January 6/the election.” Twenty-four percent, meanwhile, remember economic policies or stimulus. 

The newly sunny memories of Trump’s presidency extend beyond the economy: 42 percent remember the years he was president as “mostly good for America” compared to the 33 percent who say mostly bad; 48 percent say Trump left the country better off, compared to 46 percent worse off; 51 percent approve of Trump’s ability to maintain law and order. The list goes on and on. 

Voters seem to have somewhat forgotten the worst moments of the Trump presidency, specifically the many lows of his last months in office (perhaps prompted by a desire to pigeonhole the pandemic). If the Biden campaign—or Trump himself—doesn’t remind the public how they once felt about the former president, this rosy retrospection might just decide the election.