Trump Has the Cultural Winds at His Back—for Now
The landscape has changed from eight years ago, but second-term overreach could swing things back in a hurry.
When Donald Trump first came into office in 2017, the country was in the midst of a decade-plus of progressive cultural and political dominance. Barack Obama had just finished his second full term after winning a majority of the popular vote in back-to-back elections. Gay rights were ascendent, and there was similarly growing support for racial and gender equality. One of the most popular artistic phenomena of the time was a genre-blending musical that reimagined the story of the Founding Fathers with a diverse cast.
Trump’s election obviously blunted progressives’ political success, but it spurred even greater leftward movement in the culture. Late-night comedians and news programs that had historically been apolitical or leaned marginally left became openly anti-Trump. Athletes and scientists grew more vocal on social issues than they had in years, often in response to Trump’s words or actions. New identity-based movements around race and gender were arising with an even greater fervor than that seen in the gay rights movement.
Initially, it appeared that America embraced these developments, as a majority was turned off by Trump and the MAGA movement. Late-night and cable news saw a huge boost to their ratings, and Americans’ support for these new movements reached highs over the next four years. But toward the end of Trump’s first term came a shift that was easy to miss in light of his 2020 electoral defeat: the seemingly inexorable drift to the left in American society was tapering, and the country was slowly but surely beginning to rebel against the prevailing progressive ethos.
Between 2020 and 2024, support for Black Lives Matter took a hit; Americans’ views of DEI soured; support for trans rights fell further; cable news and late-night ratings took a nose dive. Movies pushing overtly political messages bombed at the box office. In the political realm, voters began ousting or rejecting politicians whom they deemed to be too far left, especially on matters related to crime and policing, and national results pointed to an overall conservative environment.
Americans clearly became less receptive to new progressive cultural arguments during that period and now look to be seeking a return to an earlier time—most likely pre-COVID—when life for many seemed more stable and predictable. As Trump begins his second term (and this time with a popular-vote victory in tow), he faces a changed political and cultural environment, which could give him more cover to pursue policies that may have previously generated significant pushback from his detractors. Indeed, gone are the mass, organized protests against him and his agenda; now, the public actually agrees with key portions of it.
This past weekend, The New York Times released the results of a new poll showing that Americans—including huge shares of Democrats—overwhelmingly agree with Trump’s top-ticket items, including some that dive head-first into the culture wars:
88 percent agree that immigrants who are here illegally and have criminal records should be deported (including 83 percent of Democrats)
79 percent agree that athletes who were born male but identify as female should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports (including 67 percent of Democrats)
71 percent agree that no one under the age of 18 should have access to puberty-blocking drugs or hormone therapies to transition genders (including 54 percent of Democrats)
A recent Wall Street Journal poll also found that 53 percent of Americans support Trump finishing construction of a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico. And last fall, my colleague, John Halpin, highlighted some of our own polling showing that 69 percent of voters (including 54 percent of Democrats) support Trump’s proposals to “increase police funding and strengthen criminal penalties for assaulting cops,” and 65 percent (including a 47 percent plurality of Democrats) support “deputizing the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing gang member and criminals living illegally” in the U.S.
So, it’s clear that Trump has a decently long leash to move on some of his most highly visible early policy promises, especially those that enjoy bipartisan support. He’s also buoyed by a Democratic Party that appears unwilling to confront the reality that they are on the wrong side of public opinion on some of the above questions.1
But Trump’s leash isn’t infinite, either. And given his past penchant for ignoring the naysayers, he, like Biden before him, might also fail to accurately read the moment and instead overreach. If he pushes for more controversial and unpopular moves, he could easily squander his advantage and generate a substantial backlash against him and the MAGA brand.
Across the Times and Journal polls, several of Trump’s proposals face majority—and often overwhelming—opposition, sometimes even from Republicans. This includes ending birthright citizenship, using the government to investigate and prosecute his political opponents, pardoning people convicted in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, using economic coercion or military force to take control of Greenland or the Panama Canal, eliminating the Department of Education, gutting the civil service, and detaining and deporting immigrants who have lived here illegally for more than 10 years but who pay taxes and have no criminal record.2
It remains to be seen whether Trump will ultimately push for most or all of his less popular policies (he did some yesterday with birthright citizenship and January 6 pardons) and whether there is even enough support in his own party for some of them. It’s clear that public sentiment isn’t fully on his side, but they do back a handful of his top priorities. Moreover, the broader political and cultural environment seems to be working in his favor right now. But how long will it stay that way? We’re about to find out over the next four years.
One policy on which the public was evenly split was Trump’s proposed tariffs against countries like Mexico and China.
He's not off to a good start. Amongst those pardoned were those who attacked police officers and those who literally tried to overthrow the government. (in the literal sense--see: Enrique Tarrio, the guy convicted in a court of law of seditious treason, and received a full pardon)
I've always said Trump's closest modern historical analogue was Mussolini, and the parallels continue to be striking and profuse. Both came to power on a wave of discontent during a time of sociopolitical malaise (post-WWI Italy/post-COVID US), leveraging anger- and fear-inducing rhetoric and new communication technologies (Mussolini was a masterful user of the radio, Trump a Twitter Ace), each on the promise to 'make his country great again', and to hurt and shame the left. (Mussolini's promise to expunge the 'traitorous' socialists--which he violently followed through with--and Trump's promise to 'own the libs') Rather than simply accepting their money, they actively invited their country's oligarchs into their cabinets. (Mussolini, after privatizing the telephonic system in Italy, welcomed the oligarch that essentially bought it into his private circle; Trump has his co-president, Musk) And, of course, they developed a cult of personality that captured a vast swathe of the population, and an unparalleled propaganda machine. (anyone who argues that Trump doesn't have the latter has either never heard of the Sinclair broadcasting empire, or is lying)
The only parallel that was missing was the cultivation, through legal protection, of paramilitary organizations dedicated to them, and we finally have that now. (Mussolini's brownshirts would never be punished for their actions, and now the J6 crew won't either)
One hopes for a better outcome for the US than with Italy, but narcissists rarely rule well for very long. What I will be interested to see is, if Trump *does* rule poorly, will there be consequences, as there was with Il Duce? Rational people assume so, but Trump has a uniquely effective grassroots propaganda machine that Mussolini did not. One that is not top-down, but bottom-up, and composed of information silos. If we endure an economic depression, and Trump tweets, "The Democrats have sabotaged the nation's economy, and now want to blame me for it!", will the people believe him, if they are caught inside the right silo? So far that has been the case for every one of his fibs. And he has been given a pass for his greatest failures--COVID being the highest profile. So one wonders.
And one hopes, as you point out, that we don't have to find out.
Democrats are now the party of government employees. (I can't wait for the howling about civil servants actually having to come into the office). Before popping off about "gutting the civil service" please dig into the details of the impossibility of eliminating positions or firing anyone. Civil service has now evolved into a lifetime guaranteed job. No one else in America (except academia) has these kinds of job protections. There is no way to cut the bloat and deadwood without cutting positions.