TLP Weekend Edition (July 27-28, 2024)
What we're reading, watching, and listening to this weekend.
📰 “The New Race: We explain three key points about the coming election,” by David Leonhardt. Leonhardt and his NYT colleagues provide a sober-minded examination of the state of the 2024 presidential election following the attempted assassination of former president Trump, the RNC in Milwaukee, President Joe Biden stepping down, and Vice President Kamala Harris taking over. Their analysis raises the important issue of the Electoral College favoring the GOP:
Harris is a far stronger campaigner than Biden. She’s a fiery, skilled speaker who can describe her own agenda and make the case against Trump in ways that Biden could not. She has more potential to make gains than Biden did.
That said, polls point to a potential weakness, too: Harris appears to be a worse fit with the Electoral College than Biden. She is stronger among younger voters and voters of color but weaker with older voters and white working-class voters. Because swing states are disproportionately old, white and working class, Harris is likelier to win the popular vote and lose the election than Biden was.
Think of it this way: It’s a bad trade for a Democrat to win more votes in California and fewer in Pennsylvania. As a result, Trump’s narrow national lead is probably a bit stronger than it looks.
📖 “Understanding NEPA Litigation,” from The Breakthrough Institute. A slew of smart analysts from TBI layout numerous project delay problems that arise from the National Environmental Policy Act. Among their findings:
Public lands management projects were the most common subject of litigation (37 percent), the greatest share of which (47 percent) challenged forest management projects. Just 10 groups filed 67 percent of the challenges to forest management projects and collectively won only 23 percent of those cases, adding 3.7 years on average to the process of implementing the 77 percent of projects on cases they lost.
Energy projects were the second most common subject of litigation (29 percent). Litigation delayed fossil fuel and clean energy project implementation by 3.9 years on average, despite the fact that agencies won 71 percent of those challenges. NGOs filed 74 percent of energy cases, with just 10 organizations responsible for 48 percent of challenges.
🎧 “Ezra Klein Interviews Oren Cass,” in The New York Times. Also recently in the Times, check out this great podcast discussion on the emerging working-class economics approach of the new right: “I think it’s worth exploring what Cass has been trying to do here. He wants Republicans to become a pro-worker party as he and they define it, which is definitely different than how Democrats define it. He wants to see Republicans become a pro-union party. It’s not often that I have Republican policy experts on the show who make an argument for sectoral bargaining. That is something new.”
🎸 “People Who Died,” by The Jim Carroll Band. One of the greatest of all punk songs from the 1980 record “Catholic Boy.” Ruy says he’s listened to this tune about a million times and it still grabs him. Wrenching—all of the people mentioned in the song were Carroll’s real friends who died (mostly in some tragic manner). Turn this one up!
Teddy sniffing glue he was twelve years old
Fell from the roof on East Two-nine
Cathy was eleven when she pulled the plug
On twenty six reds and a bottle of wine
Bobby got leukemia, fourteen years old
He looked like sixty five when he died
He was a friend of mine
📺 The 33rd Olympic Games from Paris, France. The Summer Olympics kicked off Friday and will run through August 11. The United States has dominated these games throughout history, having won more than 3,000 medals, including 1,229 golds. (The next closest nation, the former Soviet Union, has won less than half of those totals.) American athletes to watch this year include sprinter Sha'Carri Richardson, sprinter Noah Lyles, swimmer Katie Ledecky, and gymnast Simone Biles as well as the women's national soccer team and the men's national basketball team. The games will be streamed live on NBC.