1) I have seen zero data that Harris is "overperforming" with blacks. Quite the contrary, she's losing black men at an atrocious rate. I don't know who your tracker on all thigs black is, but I'd fire him.
2) At some point, Ruy, you and everyone else will have to come to grips with the ballot requests/early vote. It's devastating for Democrats. In AZ yesterday we crossed the R+103,000 margin. AZ MAY BE CALLED AT 8:01 . . . BY FOX . . . FOR TRUMP. I've done the calculations. Harris now is nearly having to get 65% of Is even assuming more Ds don't vote Trump than Rs vote Harris (not a chance). AZ will end around R 6.6.
3) Same thing is happening in Nevada, where Rs have run up a near 40,000 lead. This is a 71,000 flip from this time in 2020. NV likewise may be called very, very early. You know if John Ralston is panicking, it's over.
5) The data coming out of PA is stunning. Ds may finish with UNDER 100,000 "firewall" when most concede they need a minimum 400,000, except I (and Richard Baris and Robert Barnes) have all calculated they really need more than 600,000---and again this assumes every single D stays D. Not likely. I believe in PA of all states you will see the highest number of Ds voting Trump anywhere.
6) GA is trending the same way, not quite as fast. But watch Duval Co., FL, which is a perfect proxy for GA and always has been---it is over 1.5% R in early voting. THIS MARGIN WILL GROW, and GA likewise will finish R+5. By the way, all that truly stupid nonsense about FL being "close?" Rs may finish +15 to 17 there and Trump may win by as much as 11. Same in TX. Utterly not competitive, never was.
7) Despite D hopes that the western Carolina area, destroyed by the hurricane, wouldn't turn out . . . it is. Rs actually LED in early voting (don't know where it is today). This, like NV, is a FIRST EVER where Rs have led. NC is not close, and will come in R+4.
8) Harris pulled ads out of NC for . . . VA. So you know it's over. However VA is absolutely not safe. Last poll had it a tie and early voting---where Ds lead---has seen their lead (as in PA) chipped away with every single drop.
9) MI and WI are harder to call definitively because of no voter ID, but the geographical analysis of which counties are voting at what levels shows a serious red wave there, esp. in WI, where the red counties are ALREADY at 87% of their 2020 levels. In MI, the massive shift of the Mulsim vote pretty much seals that one.
10) Finally, do away with the "Rs are cannibalizing their vote" nonsense. In AZ for example, even though they trail by 103,000, Ds have actually USED UP MORE of their base than Rs (remember, the R base has a 300,000 registration advantage). Rs trail Ds by 1.5% in turnout, meaning they are building their lead on "low propensity voters." They still have an even bigger ED reserve. Same is true in PA and NV from the data.
11) The trends I aam watching confirm what I've stated since July: Trump is already sitting on 312 sure electoral votes and is VERY close in MN, NM, VA, ME, and NH. If I had to guess, I'd say he wins MN and VA, barely loses ME and NH. NM is a true tossup.
Oh, and I predicted that WHEN the Rs win the "early vote" as they are pretty much poised to do (or make such massive inroads it is no longer a Democrat advantage, Ds will suddenly find the early in person or mail in voting "racist" and will demand we return to election day only voting. To which Rs should say "Hallelujah."
I read all of your comments because you seem to be really good at digging into the data all around. Question, is it possible that on election day itself, most Rs have already voted and Ds come to the polls in large numbers? This has been said. I don't see that happening but wonder what you think. I'm voting Trump/Vance.
1) I have seen zero data that Harris is "overperforming" with blacks. Quite the contrary, she's losing black men at an atrocious rate. I don't know who your tracker on all thigs black is, but I'd fire him.
2) At some point, Ruy, you and everyone else will have to come to grips with the ballot requests/early vote. It's devastating for Democrats. In AZ yesterday we crossed the R+103,000 margin. AZ MAY BE CALLED AT 8:01 . . . BY FOX . . . FOR TRUMP. I've done the calculations. Harris now is nearly having to get 65% of Is even assuming more Ds don't vote Trump than Rs vote Harris (not a chance). AZ will end around R 6.6.
3) Same thing is happening in Nevada, where Rs have run up a near 40,000 lead. This is a 71,000 flip from this time in 2020. NV likewise may be called very, very early. You know if John Ralston is panicking, it's over.
5) The data coming out of PA is stunning. Ds may finish with UNDER 100,000 "firewall" when most concede they need a minimum 400,000, except I (and Richard Baris and Robert Barnes) have all calculated they really need more than 600,000---and again this assumes every single D stays D. Not likely. I believe in PA of all states you will see the highest number of Ds voting Trump anywhere.
6) GA is trending the same way, not quite as fast. But watch Duval Co., FL, which is a perfect proxy for GA and always has been---it is over 1.5% R in early voting. THIS MARGIN WILL GROW, and GA likewise will finish R+5. By the way, all that truly stupid nonsense about FL being "close?" Rs may finish +15 to 17 there and Trump may win by as much as 11. Same in TX. Utterly not competitive, never was.
7) Despite D hopes that the western Carolina area, destroyed by the hurricane, wouldn't turn out . . . it is. Rs actually LED in early voting (don't know where it is today). This, like NV, is a FIRST EVER where Rs have led. NC is not close, and will come in R+4.
8) Harris pulled ads out of NC for . . . VA. So you know it's over. However VA is absolutely not safe. Last poll had it a tie and early voting---where Ds lead---has seen their lead (as in PA) chipped away with every single drop.
9) MI and WI are harder to call definitively because of no voter ID, but the geographical analysis of which counties are voting at what levels shows a serious red wave there, esp. in WI, where the red counties are ALREADY at 87% of their 2020 levels. In MI, the massive shift of the Mulsim vote pretty much seals that one.
10) Finally, do away with the "Rs are cannibalizing their vote" nonsense. In AZ for example, even though they trail by 103,000, Ds have actually USED UP MORE of their base than Rs (remember, the R base has a 300,000 registration advantage). Rs trail Ds by 1.5% in turnout, meaning they are building their lead on "low propensity voters." They still have an even bigger ED reserve. Same is true in PA and NV from the data.
11) The trends I aam watching confirm what I've stated since July: Trump is already sitting on 312 sure electoral votes and is VERY close in MN, NM, VA, ME, and NH. If I had to guess, I'd say he wins MN and VA, barely loses ME and NH. NM is a true tossup.
Oh, and I predicted that WHEN the Rs win the "early vote" as they are pretty much poised to do (or make such massive inroads it is no longer a Democrat advantage, Ds will suddenly find the early in person or mail in voting "racist" and will demand we return to election day only voting. To which Rs should say "Hallelujah."
I read all of your comments because you seem to be really good at digging into the data all around. Question, is it possible that on election day itself, most Rs have already voted and Ds come to the polls in large numbers? This has been said. I don't see that happening but wonder what you think. I'm voting Trump/Vance.