1) Well, as of Saturday, TX Rs were +1.2 m; the southern blue part of the state was way down in early voting, and Rs were +9 with "low propensity voters" Trump +10, Cruz +5
2) Ds had a big day in "souls to the polls" in FL, dropping the stunning GOP lead from 900,000 to 800,000. Bad news for Ds is that's their last big shot. Look for FL to finish R+1.1 million and Trump +10 there.
3) AZ Rs are a machine, standing yesterday at +187,900. Ds have no turnout advantage at all---even. AZ will finish R+300,000 or Trump +5 and Lake +1.
4) Despite a big drop from Clark Co., NV Rs hold a very solid lead at +45,000 (these numbers are really in flux) but John Ralston is looking for a magic wand so he delayed writing his final estimate, which will be Rs +30,000 and Trump +2. Brown falls short.
5) NC is not close. The red-hot early voting from the supposedly depressed west led to an unprecedented R lead coming out of EV. Trump+4. Robinson falls way short.
6) GA red rurals are voting off the charts and GA tracks well with Duval, FL which right now is only +2 but FL is an election day state. I think Duval finishes +5 and so does Trump in GA.
7) PA is Trump country. Even Fetterman said it. Rs slashed 750,000 off the Ds 2020 1.1 million early turnout lead. Trump +2. Probably has enough to give McCormick a win too.
8) MI is the hardest to call multiple polls have Trump +1, the Muslim community is united behind him, so Trump +1, Rogers a tossup.
9) WI is another case of the red rurals going nuts, already at 150% of their 2020 vote. Milwaukee only up a tiny bit. Trump +2, Hovde a tossup.
10) MN is an absolute tossup, esp with the Somalis backing Trump now.
11) NH has a solid GOP advantage but they are RINOs. Trump can pull this out by 10,000.
12) VA now is rated a tossup (last poll was a .07 difference) and what makes this clear is that Hung Cao in the senate race is under 2 back. I did not have that one on my bingo card.
13) ME is the last battleground that is the furthest for Trump. Right now, -2, but if this is a quasi-landslide as it appears it is, ME can fall too.
For now, Trump +312 floor, 340 ceiling, Senate Rs gain min of 3, as high as 6. Hold the House & expand by 5-10.
A Harris victory will put a stake through the heart of the Democratic Party's connection to actual working people (as opposed to labor union bosses). Its transformation into a party of the elites will be complete. On the other hand, if she loses, there is an outside chance that the party will try to come to grips with its alienation from the working class.
1) Well, as of Saturday, TX Rs were +1.2 m; the southern blue part of the state was way down in early voting, and Rs were +9 with "low propensity voters" Trump +10, Cruz +5
2) Ds had a big day in "souls to the polls" in FL, dropping the stunning GOP lead from 900,000 to 800,000. Bad news for Ds is that's their last big shot. Look for FL to finish R+1.1 million and Trump +10 there.
3) AZ Rs are a machine, standing yesterday at +187,900. Ds have no turnout advantage at all---even. AZ will finish R+300,000 or Trump +5 and Lake +1.
4) Despite a big drop from Clark Co., NV Rs hold a very solid lead at +45,000 (these numbers are really in flux) but John Ralston is looking for a magic wand so he delayed writing his final estimate, which will be Rs +30,000 and Trump +2. Brown falls short.
5) NC is not close. The red-hot early voting from the supposedly depressed west led to an unprecedented R lead coming out of EV. Trump+4. Robinson falls way short.
6) GA red rurals are voting off the charts and GA tracks well with Duval, FL which right now is only +2 but FL is an election day state. I think Duval finishes +5 and so does Trump in GA.
7) PA is Trump country. Even Fetterman said it. Rs slashed 750,000 off the Ds 2020 1.1 million early turnout lead. Trump +2. Probably has enough to give McCormick a win too.
8) MI is the hardest to call multiple polls have Trump +1, the Muslim community is united behind him, so Trump +1, Rogers a tossup.
9) WI is another case of the red rurals going nuts, already at 150% of their 2020 vote. Milwaukee only up a tiny bit. Trump +2, Hovde a tossup.
10) MN is an absolute tossup, esp with the Somalis backing Trump now.
11) NH has a solid GOP advantage but they are RINOs. Trump can pull this out by 10,000.
12) VA now is rated a tossup (last poll was a .07 difference) and what makes this clear is that Hung Cao in the senate race is under 2 back. I did not have that one on my bingo card.
13) ME is the last battleground that is the furthest for Trump. Right now, -2, but if this is a quasi-landslide as it appears it is, ME can fall too.
For now, Trump +312 floor, 340 ceiling, Senate Rs gain min of 3, as high as 6. Hold the House & expand by 5-10.
Trump wins the popular vote by 1.5
A Harris victory will put a stake through the heart of the Democratic Party's connection to actual working people (as opposed to labor union bosses). Its transformation into a party of the elites will be complete. On the other hand, if she loses, there is an outside chance that the party will try to come to grips with its alienation from the working class.