Ruy, very solid review of the polling. But the biggest indicators are non polling:
*Since 2020, of the 30 states where you can track voter registration by party, Republicans net gained in . . .
EVERY. SINGLE. STATE..
Some of this data is off the charts. In Marixopa Co., AZ, the GOP now has a 160,000 net lead over Ds---more than the whole STATE lead in 2020. New state data is due out any day, but last time I looked Rs had a quarter million state wide lead. Now all but Pima Co. (Tucson) is red, and even Pima saw D registration NET declines.
Places such as NC and PA have seen dramatic slashes in the D majority (Trump won NC both in 2016 and 2020 with a larger D majority). Repeat after me: NC and AZ are not swing states.
PA has, like AZ, seen a significant R registration surge. But even in places such as NE2, where Biden won by 22,000, Rs have chopped that edge by 2/3, gaining net 13,000. NV, IA, OH, ME all showing similar trends.
*Another non-polling critical indicators is early ballots requested. Biden dominated these votes in 2020 (many would use the word "fraud" here)) but in GA (which does not register by party) the #s are don 90%. (Biden won that by 30% of his 10,000 edge). JUST in the requested early votes the Ds have already lost GA. But the same is true in PA, where early vote ballot requests are down 30%.
And don't forget the GOP this time had its own push for early ballot requests, so a GOOD portion of all those reduced numbers will be Rs, not Ds.
*TargeteSmart or some such group posted an idiotic stat that since Harris's installation black female registration was up "133%." Well, maybe in Rwanda or Benin, but not in the U.S. Again, in NC where we can actually measure this by party AND race, total NEW black registrations: 3,000. Total new white registrations, 12,000. If anything, Harris is driving MORE whites than ever to register.
*You mentioned one of the most important factors of all: Trump's polling is ALWAYS behind his actual vote getting. This is particularly true at the state level. Ds are ALWAYS over polled. Consider in 2020 Richard Baris had Biden +10 in MN. Baris is considered one of the most "conservative" (I'd say, "accurate") pollsters out there. Reality? Biden+2 in MN. Polls consistently had Trump at +4 in OH in 2016 and 2020. Reality? +8 and +8.5. He'll be closer to 9 this cycle. Polls have Trump at +2 in FL. Given that now FL has an 800,000 R voter reg edge vs. deficit in 2020, Trump will win FL by 7-10. No, FL is not a swing state. WHATEVER state you pick, Trump underpolls.
So bottom line, the national polls are juiced, but they won't stay that way. Harris is already sinking fast, particularly in state polls. Only bit uber-prog areas like CA and NY, meaningless for the electoral college, are propping her up. When you look outside of polling, Trump will win the popular vote and will win the EC comfortably by 312-340 range. But Harris is just bad enough she could flip still other states to Trump/Vance/RFK
Trump is probably the most over-exposed candidate to ever run for President. The fact that he cannot get support from more than 44% of the likely voters is the most important fact in the campaign. The September 10 debate will be an opportunity for Trump to reinforce the negative view that the majority of voters have of him through a repetition of his juvenile insults and dark obsessions.
I've developed a rule of thumb about polls: whatever the Democrats are polling at, it's actually two points worse. We were shocked by the 2016 result, and we were surprised by how close 2020. My fellow Democrats have no reason to be the least bit complacent until all the votes are actually counted - and even then we probably won't be able to rest easy.
Ruy, very solid review of the polling. But the biggest indicators are non polling:
*Since 2020, of the 30 states where you can track voter registration by party, Republicans net gained in . . .
EVERY. SINGLE. STATE..
Some of this data is off the charts. In Marixopa Co., AZ, the GOP now has a 160,000 net lead over Ds---more than the whole STATE lead in 2020. New state data is due out any day, but last time I looked Rs had a quarter million state wide lead. Now all but Pima Co. (Tucson) is red, and even Pima saw D registration NET declines.
Places such as NC and PA have seen dramatic slashes in the D majority (Trump won NC both in 2016 and 2020 with a larger D majority). Repeat after me: NC and AZ are not swing states.
PA has, like AZ, seen a significant R registration surge. But even in places such as NE2, where Biden won by 22,000, Rs have chopped that edge by 2/3, gaining net 13,000. NV, IA, OH, ME all showing similar trends.
*Another non-polling critical indicators is early ballots requested. Biden dominated these votes in 2020 (many would use the word "fraud" here)) but in GA (which does not register by party) the #s are don 90%. (Biden won that by 30% of his 10,000 edge). JUST in the requested early votes the Ds have already lost GA. But the same is true in PA, where early vote ballot requests are down 30%.
And don't forget the GOP this time had its own push for early ballot requests, so a GOOD portion of all those reduced numbers will be Rs, not Ds.
*TargeteSmart or some such group posted an idiotic stat that since Harris's installation black female registration was up "133%." Well, maybe in Rwanda or Benin, but not in the U.S. Again, in NC where we can actually measure this by party AND race, total NEW black registrations: 3,000. Total new white registrations, 12,000. If anything, Harris is driving MORE whites than ever to register.
*You mentioned one of the most important factors of all: Trump's polling is ALWAYS behind his actual vote getting. This is particularly true at the state level. Ds are ALWAYS over polled. Consider in 2020 Richard Baris had Biden +10 in MN. Baris is considered one of the most "conservative" (I'd say, "accurate") pollsters out there. Reality? Biden+2 in MN. Polls consistently had Trump at +4 in OH in 2016 and 2020. Reality? +8 and +8.5. He'll be closer to 9 this cycle. Polls have Trump at +2 in FL. Given that now FL has an 800,000 R voter reg edge vs. deficit in 2020, Trump will win FL by 7-10. No, FL is not a swing state. WHATEVER state you pick, Trump underpolls.
So bottom line, the national polls are juiced, but they won't stay that way. Harris is already sinking fast, particularly in state polls. Only bit uber-prog areas like CA and NY, meaningless for the electoral college, are propping her up. When you look outside of polling, Trump will win the popular vote and will win the EC comfortably by 312-340 range. But Harris is just bad enough she could flip still other states to Trump/Vance/RFK
A very solid, informative review and analysis of the current polling. Thanks!
Overall, it looks moderately positive for Harris, so I'm glad about that.
Trump is probably the most over-exposed candidate to ever run for President. The fact that he cannot get support from more than 44% of the likely voters is the most important fact in the campaign. The September 10 debate will be an opportunity for Trump to reinforce the negative view that the majority of voters have of him through a repetition of his juvenile insults and dark obsessions.
I've developed a rule of thumb about polls: whatever the Democrats are polling at, it's actually two points worse. We were shocked by the 2016 result, and we were surprised by how close 2020. My fellow Democrats have no reason to be the least bit complacent until all the votes are actually counted - and even then we probably won't be able to rest easy.