As you know, I think most polling right now is bunk. There are two tiers: the "traditionalists" who were off horribly in 2016, changed their methodology and were closer in 2020, then now have returned to their 2016 sampling methods according to one insider. These include Quinnipiac, TIPP, Morning Consult, and Yougov. Another tier has seriously recalibrated based on VOTER REGISTRATION SHIFTS that no one wants to talk about (because of the 30 states where we can track, ALL 30 moved toward Republicans since 2020, some HUGE like FL, AZ, NV, and PA). This tier includes Basham, Cahaley, Baris, Insider Advantage, and Fabrizio. They ALL show Trump up both nationally and strongly in all battlegrounds., (Basham +3 nationally, Rasmussen +4, Baris +1, and so on.) But I believe even THEY are not correctly catching the voter reg typhoon. In Mariopa Co., AZ, Rs are NET gaining 200 PER DAY. That means just between now and election day this county alone would swamp Biden's 2020 margin. In PA, Scott Presler has flipped (almost singlehandedly) Bucks Co. and is within 300 of flipping Lucerne.
So no one is catching this. Requests for early ballots (where Biden won by 30% in GA) are down by 90%; in PA D early ballot requests are down 131,000. This was the bread and butter of the 2020 election. Isn't happening.
Based on that, and I've said this from the moment she was anointed, Harris's polling would look good for 3-4 weeks, then tailspin til it was at Biden levels. She is already on her way, and will be there by October.
Oh, and why is she even campaiging in NH, a state no R has won since 2000?
Excellent analysis, as usual, from Ruy Teixeira. The 2024 Democratic Party in general, and presidential nominee Kamala Harris in particular, appear unwilling to do the hard work of outreach and coalition building to achieve an electoral majority.
Depending on the outcome of their scheduled ABC debate, Harris may have reached the pinnacle of her popularity post-convention, and Donald Trump's lead will only widen in the coming 60 days before the Election.
Let me add one more thing. Tom Bevan today published a 538 vs. RCP poll summary of polling errors.
They are ALL always in the same direction to the left. (I.e., they always overstate Ds). So any sensible person would say, "How can they be 'errors' if they are always in the same direction?" An error would suggest that at least half the time they are in Trump's/GOP's favor.
This is a very difficult election for a pro working class Dem. Both candidates are now talking tax cuts for the well to do. I like Trump's tariffs and immigration, don't like his pro Putin vibe. Not an easy vote.
Let's not kid ourselves . This is not an actual move to the Center by Harris, but theatre aimed at non Californians , unfamiliar with Kamala's greatest hits.
Roughly 20 years ago, as SF DA Harris refused to prosecute migrant drug dealers with felonies, because it might lead to their deportation. The result was de facto decriminalized drug dealing and use in SF. Supplies massively increased. Street drug prices dropped like a rock, and use soared. Harris also refused to prosecute nuisance crimes. Kamala is a large part of the reason CA streets are today, covered in addicts, the homeless, open air drug marts, tenet encampments and human waste.
As CA AG , Harris authored the law decriminalizing thefts to $950 per instance. She mass released incarcerated prisoners early , including pedophiles and men incarcerated for domestic abuse.
Harris refused to seek the death penalty for cop killers, and to deport convicted violent migrants. Harris allowed "transitioning men" with their original factory parts, to be incarcerated with women, where they raped female prisoners.
Harris championed bail reform, mass early prison release, lessor prison terms for predators and every other far Left notion floating thru the air. Kamala is not Biden, she is far worse. She is not just a Squad member, she is their Queen.
Question for Ruy - Why are Democratic Senate candidates leading their opponents in Arizona, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Are they Al Davis Democrats as well? Nevada and Wisconsin are no longer toss ups.
Maybe for the same reason presidential elections often see one Party gaining the White House while losing one or both Chambers of Congress. Simply put: Voters as a whole may desire divided government more than the most rabid partisand of both parties' do.
for the same reason Tester wins in Montana, (but not a given this time) People often know and like their own senator, even if of another party, more than those vilified national polls. Also a senate candidate can better tailor the message to his state.
Tester is down 5 or 6 points in every poll, to a war hero. A win seems a long shot. Tester has Liz Cheney disease. He expects to ignore his constituents, and still be reelected. Tester is worse than nepo baby Cheney. Skating thru life on her surname, Liz lacked the intellectual heft, to understand or even feign concern, for her voters.
Tester runs a large farm and knows the folly of the Biden/Harris EV revolution in rural areas. Semi trucks that cost 3 times ICE trucks, and take hours to recharge each day? John knows the physics of the power needed, to move a million dollar combine thru a 3 mile field. He understands combines and trucks are refueled on the run, to save time.
Tester knows EV semis and farm equipment, would send food prices soaring and farmers into bankruptcy. He is also aware, there will be no charging stations in fields in his lifetime, and possibly, that of his grandchildren.
Still Tester played along. Voting with Biden 95% of the time, a Squad member lacking the hair cover and lip gloss. Tester's previous runs to the Center have worked. Maybe not this time. Tester's votes to spend unnecessary trillions, are economically slaying farmers, who must borrow money each year, to keep farming.
Montana is not the Silicon Valley. Most residents do not enjoy 6 figure incomes. They drive vast distances. Gas prices are very important. Maybe Tester wins, but most would not bet on it.
In simple terms, the Harris campaign is a fraud. So, what else is new over there?
A fraud that will be successful with the full compliance of the media. Billionaires and the media are the main Democrat constituencies these days.
As you know, I think most polling right now is bunk. There are two tiers: the "traditionalists" who were off horribly in 2016, changed their methodology and were closer in 2020, then now have returned to their 2016 sampling methods according to one insider. These include Quinnipiac, TIPP, Morning Consult, and Yougov. Another tier has seriously recalibrated based on VOTER REGISTRATION SHIFTS that no one wants to talk about (because of the 30 states where we can track, ALL 30 moved toward Republicans since 2020, some HUGE like FL, AZ, NV, and PA). This tier includes Basham, Cahaley, Baris, Insider Advantage, and Fabrizio. They ALL show Trump up both nationally and strongly in all battlegrounds., (Basham +3 nationally, Rasmussen +4, Baris +1, and so on.) But I believe even THEY are not correctly catching the voter reg typhoon. In Mariopa Co., AZ, Rs are NET gaining 200 PER DAY. That means just between now and election day this county alone would swamp Biden's 2020 margin. In PA, Scott Presler has flipped (almost singlehandedly) Bucks Co. and is within 300 of flipping Lucerne.
So no one is catching this. Requests for early ballots (where Biden won by 30% in GA) are down by 90%; in PA D early ballot requests are down 131,000. This was the bread and butter of the 2020 election. Isn't happening.
Based on that, and I've said this from the moment she was anointed, Harris's polling would look good for 3-4 weeks, then tailspin til it was at Biden levels. She is already on her way, and will be there by October.
Oh, and why is she even campaiging in NH, a state no R has won since 2000?
Excellent analysis, as usual, from Ruy Teixeira. The 2024 Democratic Party in general, and presidential nominee Kamala Harris in particular, appear unwilling to do the hard work of outreach and coalition building to achieve an electoral majority.
Depending on the outcome of their scheduled ABC debate, Harris may have reached the pinnacle of her popularity post-convention, and Donald Trump's lead will only widen in the coming 60 days before the Election.
Let me add one more thing. Tom Bevan today published a 538 vs. RCP poll summary of polling errors.
They are ALL always in the same direction to the left. (I.e., they always overstate Ds). So any sensible person would say, "How can they be 'errors' if they are always in the same direction?" An error would suggest that at least half the time they are in Trump's/GOP's favor.
This is a very difficult election for a pro working class Dem. Both candidates are now talking tax cuts for the well to do. I like Trump's tariffs and immigration, don't like his pro Putin vibe. Not an easy vote.
Let's not kid ourselves . This is not an actual move to the Center by Harris, but theatre aimed at non Californians , unfamiliar with Kamala's greatest hits.
Roughly 20 years ago, as SF DA Harris refused to prosecute migrant drug dealers with felonies, because it might lead to their deportation. The result was de facto decriminalized drug dealing and use in SF. Supplies massively increased. Street drug prices dropped like a rock, and use soared. Harris also refused to prosecute nuisance crimes. Kamala is a large part of the reason CA streets are today, covered in addicts, the homeless, open air drug marts, tenet encampments and human waste.
As CA AG , Harris authored the law decriminalizing thefts to $950 per instance. She mass released incarcerated prisoners early , including pedophiles and men incarcerated for domestic abuse.
Harris refused to seek the death penalty for cop killers, and to deport convicted violent migrants. Harris allowed "transitioning men" with their original factory parts, to be incarcerated with women, where they raped female prisoners.
Harris championed bail reform, mass early prison release, lessor prison terms for predators and every other far Left notion floating thru the air. Kamala is not Biden, she is far worse. She is not just a Squad member, she is their Queen.
Some questions Harris should answer. At the least, Trump should ask them. https://clarkridune.substack.com/p/questions-for-vice-president-harris?r=1mpwio
Question for Ruy - Why are Democratic Senate candidates leading their opponents in Arizona, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Are they Al Davis Democrats as well? Nevada and Wisconsin are no longer toss ups.
Maybe for the same reason presidential elections often see one Party gaining the White House while losing one or both Chambers of Congress. Simply put: Voters as a whole may desire divided government more than the most rabid partisand of both parties' do.
for the same reason Tester wins in Montana, (but not a given this time) People often know and like their own senator, even if of another party, more than those vilified national polls. Also a senate candidate can better tailor the message to his state.
Tester is down 5 or 6 points in every poll, to a war hero. A win seems a long shot. Tester has Liz Cheney disease. He expects to ignore his constituents, and still be reelected. Tester is worse than nepo baby Cheney. Skating thru life on her surname, Liz lacked the intellectual heft, to understand or even feign concern, for her voters.
Tester runs a large farm and knows the folly of the Biden/Harris EV revolution in rural areas. Semi trucks that cost 3 times ICE trucks, and take hours to recharge each day? John knows the physics of the power needed, to move a million dollar combine thru a 3 mile field. He understands combines and trucks are refueled on the run, to save time.
Tester knows EV semis and farm equipment, would send food prices soaring and farmers into bankruptcy. He is also aware, there will be no charging stations in fields in his lifetime, and possibly, that of his grandchildren.
Still Tester played along. Voting with Biden 95% of the time, a Squad member lacking the hair cover and lip gloss. Tester's previous runs to the Center have worked. Maybe not this time. Tester's votes to spend unnecessary trillions, are economically slaying farmers, who must borrow money each year, to keep farming.
Montana is not the Silicon Valley. Most residents do not enjoy 6 figure incomes. They drive vast distances. Gas prices are very important. Maybe Tester wins, but most would not bet on it.