1) A great book to consider, Paul Kleppner's "Cross of Culture," where he argued that ALL elections from 1876 to 1900 were decided by a handful of swing counties in the midwest, almost entirely based on religion (and not "Catholic v. Protestant" but shades of Lutheranism, etc.
2) Early vote share has risen. Democrats lead---BUT a) the requested VBM ballots are way, way down. In some cases, 80% off 2020; on average, at least 30%; and b) the Democrats share has fallen sharply (at least 11 points in NC, PA, Duval Co. FL., while the GOP share has risen significantly (about 5-7 points on average, making for a 11-19 point swing in these states. When combined with the massive decline in early vote, which makes cheating and fraud nearly impossible, and the changed shares, Republicans have essentially already "won" the early vote.
For example, I recall in 2020 closely watching FL and the early vote. We calculated that to win FL, Obama had to come out of FL with a 111,000 early vote lead. He didn't make it. When we saw he only had a lead of 77,000 we knew the R had won.
3) VA is a totally different matter, equally if not more, encouraging for Rs. Turnout was high in Fairfax, yes, but it was off the charts in the red counties. Three or four hit their 2020 total in the FIRST DAY. Buchanan and others were already at 85%, meaning Rs will come out of VA early voting with a 20 point improvement over 2020.. Here's the kicker---and Ruy, you didn't address registrations much, but I think they are THE telling stat. We con't know VA registrations because VA dose not register by party, but based on trends in 30/30 other states and nearby NC, OH, etc., it's more than a good bet that VA voter registrations have stunningly moved right. When THAT factor is applied, Virginia is MORE than "in play."
4) Last but not least, Maricopa Co. AZ continues to just explode red. Yesterday's R lead was up to 163,800 while Yavapai came in with an R lead of 59,000. AZ is on a pace to finish at R+7 by November. AZ is NOT "in play," nor is NC, whose early vote margin for Ds, along with VBM requests are way, way down from 2020. Same with PA. I said last week that based on voter reg and early ballot requests, Trump had won the election. Now Bernie Moreno leads in the OH senate (remember they always underpoll Trump there by 4 at least, so Moreno is probably up more, meaning the GOP will likely end up at least 52-48 in the senate. We'll see if I'm right!
1) A great book to consider, Paul Kleppner's "Cross of Culture," where he argued that ALL elections from 1876 to 1900 were decided by a handful of swing counties in the midwest, almost entirely based on religion (and not "Catholic v. Protestant" but shades of Lutheranism, etc.
2) Early vote share has risen. Democrats lead---BUT a) the requested VBM ballots are way, way down. In some cases, 80% off 2020; on average, at least 30%; and b) the Democrats share has fallen sharply (at least 11 points in NC, PA, Duval Co. FL., while the GOP share has risen significantly (about 5-7 points on average, making for a 11-19 point swing in these states. When combined with the massive decline in early vote, which makes cheating and fraud nearly impossible, and the changed shares, Republicans have essentially already "won" the early vote.
For example, I recall in 2020 closely watching FL and the early vote. We calculated that to win FL, Obama had to come out of FL with a 111,000 early vote lead. He didn't make it. When we saw he only had a lead of 77,000 we knew the R had won.
3) VA is a totally different matter, equally if not more, encouraging for Rs. Turnout was high in Fairfax, yes, but it was off the charts in the red counties. Three or four hit their 2020 total in the FIRST DAY. Buchanan and others were already at 85%, meaning Rs will come out of VA early voting with a 20 point improvement over 2020.. Here's the kicker---and Ruy, you didn't address registrations much, but I think they are THE telling stat. We con't know VA registrations because VA dose not register by party, but based on trends in 30/30 other states and nearby NC, OH, etc., it's more than a good bet that VA voter registrations have stunningly moved right. When THAT factor is applied, Virginia is MORE than "in play."
4) Last but not least, Maricopa Co. AZ continues to just explode red. Yesterday's R lead was up to 163,800 while Yavapai came in with an R lead of 59,000. AZ is on a pace to finish at R+7 by November. AZ is NOT "in play," nor is NC, whose early vote margin for Ds, along with VBM requests are way, way down from 2020. Same with PA. I said last week that based on voter reg and early ballot requests, Trump had won the election. Now Bernie Moreno leads in the OH senate (remember they always underpoll Trump there by 4 at least, so Moreno is probably up more, meaning the GOP will likely end up at least 52-48 in the senate. We'll see if I'm right!