Again, fundamental flaws in the analysis. 1) There is a massive, and I mean massive shift going on to the Trump MAGA Republicans. Every state, and often, almost EVERY COUNTY is seeing these shifts. 2) Early voting in VA, AZ, and NC show that 20% of the R voters have never voted before, thus they are adding to the GOP. 3) The Democrats are now stuck as the party of war. This will not work well with the young, whether college or non-college. Polls show Trump gaining significantly in this group. He doesn't lead yet, but has closed. J.D. Vance is an even bigger appeal to them. 4) The Trump RFK coalition now appeals to a wide range of Libertarian-leaning voters. Backing crypto, easing penalties on marijuana, and insisting on work for AMERICAN employees will continue to siphon them off. 5) The long safe black and Hispanic blocks of D voters are gone. This may well be a 1932 election for blacks, who stayed with Hoover one last time, then bolted for the Democrats. Trump is getting 20% of blacks in almost every survey. It won't be that small next time. Only single black women (like all single women who see government as daddy) will remain past 2028. 6) In addition to the war issue, Democrats cannot win the woke/trans issues. This simply is repulsive to most Americans, and dangerously so if it comes to their schools. What happened in VA (where the GOP is performing a levels not seen since Reagan in early voting) and FL will quickly expand nation-wide. 7) Finally, the tech/green block is shattering. New tech needs a grid. Solar and wind can't do it, and Democrats are wedded to these ancient technologies. Only nuclear power (which Democrats completely oppose) can provide the grid tech needs. Hence, Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are just the tip of the iceberg of tech support that will move away from green and to silicon.
The only way that I can imagine either party genuinely adopting centrist policies is with widespread adoption of approval voting or ranked choice voting, which will give centrist candidates a chance of making it to the general election and winning. Even a relative handful of centrists in Congress could have a lot of influence as swing votes on the many partisan issues.
Larry is clearly voting for Trump so most of his points interpret what is happening in this election through that lens. The statement that 20% of R voters are new voters and thus the GOP is adding to their base is a huge assumption. They could have registered as R because of R’s traditional conservative emphasis on a strong military and a strong economy but they feel this is more likely to be maintained in this election by Harris/Walz. They are probably young and therefore have their lives ahead of them. They can’t imagine turning over the nuclear codes to someone as unhinged as Trump. They probably want to continue to live in a Democracy, favor the rule of law, and supporting our allies through the international rule based order all of which Trump’s Project 2025 clearly wants to discard. They really appreciate Harris’ outreach to the GOP and her solutions to their problems: home ownership, college debt, having children, educating themselves and their children, etc. See her #100ReasonsToVoteHarris2024.
Moving on to TLP’s article, I felt there was very little emphasis on Harris/Walz’s efforts to do what this article is about. Their campaign is truly stating over and over that they want to represent all Americans and they have policies that are trying to solve the many diverse problems and needs of our diverse population in America. I wanted to read your TLP article because I was sure you would be pointing out this effort but actually you hardly mention it at all. Very disappointing. I feel that Harris is trying to build a very expansive inclusive campaign as a start to a very expansive inclusive administration and you hardly mention or severely downplay this clear goal of her campaign. A part of this goal of hers is to get things done for Americans. She has stated over and over that she is willing to “reach across the aisle” as they used to say, to compromise, to get things done. Trump is not doing this at all. He shut down the Immigration bill because he wanted to run his campaign on a problem instead of a solution. This bill would have made huge strides to solve the immigration
Problem in this country. His House of Representatives has gotten nothing done because their focus is the R party only, never country. Harris is all about country, the American people over party. This is the reason she is building a new inclusive American party, one that is for all Americans. You call your article an “Idiot’s guide” like it would be simple to become a dominant party by following your simple recommendations but you missed this most simple of solutions: Focus on Americans, all Americans and NOT your party. This is what Harris/Walz are successfully doing. Proof is all the traditional GOP heavy hitters by the droves that are endorsing her.
New York World, July 1, 1892, in John L. Heaton, The Story of a Page: Thirty Years of Public Service and Public Discussion in the Editorial Columns of the New York World (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1908), pp. 83, 88.
Generally agree with this post, but you;d argue a few points. Only question I'll ask is in number 3 of the final summary, How can people think that police treat whites different than blacks or other minorities when most PD's are made up of increasing numbers of those same minorities?
Again, fundamental flaws in the analysis. 1) There is a massive, and I mean massive shift going on to the Trump MAGA Republicans. Every state, and often, almost EVERY COUNTY is seeing these shifts. 2) Early voting in VA, AZ, and NC show that 20% of the R voters have never voted before, thus they are adding to the GOP. 3) The Democrats are now stuck as the party of war. This will not work well with the young, whether college or non-college. Polls show Trump gaining significantly in this group. He doesn't lead yet, but has closed. J.D. Vance is an even bigger appeal to them. 4) The Trump RFK coalition now appeals to a wide range of Libertarian-leaning voters. Backing crypto, easing penalties on marijuana, and insisting on work for AMERICAN employees will continue to siphon them off. 5) The long safe black and Hispanic blocks of D voters are gone. This may well be a 1932 election for blacks, who stayed with Hoover one last time, then bolted for the Democrats. Trump is getting 20% of blacks in almost every survey. It won't be that small next time. Only single black women (like all single women who see government as daddy) will remain past 2028. 6) In addition to the war issue, Democrats cannot win the woke/trans issues. This simply is repulsive to most Americans, and dangerously so if it comes to their schools. What happened in VA (where the GOP is performing a levels not seen since Reagan in early voting) and FL will quickly expand nation-wide. 7) Finally, the tech/green block is shattering. New tech needs a grid. Solar and wind can't do it, and Democrats are wedded to these ancient technologies. Only nuclear power (which Democrats completely oppose) can provide the grid tech needs. Hence, Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are just the tip of the iceberg of tech support that will move away from green and to silicon.
The only way that I can imagine either party genuinely adopting centrist policies is with widespread adoption of approval voting or ranked choice voting, which will give centrist candidates a chance of making it to the general election and winning. Even a relative handful of centrists in Congress could have a lot of influence as swing votes on the many partisan issues.
Larry is clearly voting for Trump so most of his points interpret what is happening in this election through that lens. The statement that 20% of R voters are new voters and thus the GOP is adding to their base is a huge assumption. They could have registered as R because of R’s traditional conservative emphasis on a strong military and a strong economy but they feel this is more likely to be maintained in this election by Harris/Walz. They are probably young and therefore have their lives ahead of them. They can’t imagine turning over the nuclear codes to someone as unhinged as Trump. They probably want to continue to live in a Democracy, favor the rule of law, and supporting our allies through the international rule based order all of which Trump’s Project 2025 clearly wants to discard. They really appreciate Harris’ outreach to the GOP and her solutions to their problems: home ownership, college debt, having children, educating themselves and their children, etc. See her #100ReasonsToVoteHarris2024.
Moving on to TLP’s article, I felt there was very little emphasis on Harris/Walz’s efforts to do what this article is about. Their campaign is truly stating over and over that they want to represent all Americans and they have policies that are trying to solve the many diverse problems and needs of our diverse population in America. I wanted to read your TLP article because I was sure you would be pointing out this effort but actually you hardly mention it at all. Very disappointing. I feel that Harris is trying to build a very expansive inclusive campaign as a start to a very expansive inclusive administration and you hardly mention or severely downplay this clear goal of her campaign. A part of this goal of hers is to get things done for Americans. She has stated over and over that she is willing to “reach across the aisle” as they used to say, to compromise, to get things done. Trump is not doing this at all. He shut down the Immigration bill because he wanted to run his campaign on a problem instead of a solution. This bill would have made huge strides to solve the immigration
Problem in this country. His House of Representatives has gotten nothing done because their focus is the R party only, never country. Harris is all about country, the American people over party. This is the reason she is building a new inclusive American party, one that is for all Americans. You call your article an “Idiot’s guide” like it would be simple to become a dominant party by following your simple recommendations but you missed this most simple of solutions: Focus on Americans, all Americans and NOT your party. This is what Harris/Walz are successfully doing. Proof is all the traditional GOP heavy hitters by the droves that are endorsing her.
Yikes. The fact that you believe what they are saying rather than looking at what they have done makes me assume you watch MSDNC.
My comments are from a variety of sources. I do not watch MSNBC. Here they are:
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/08/federal-trade-commission-announces-final-rule-banning-fake-reviews-testimonials
https://www.mediamatters.org/cnbc/cnbcs-squawk-box-reports-conservative-studies-showing-trumps-tariffs-would-amount-one-biggest
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/what-would-trump-campaign-plans-mean-social-security
https://www.wsj.com/economy/iglobal/u-s-economy-again-leads-the-world-imf-says-39578275?page=1
New York World, July 1, 1892, in John L. Heaton, The Story of a Page: Thirty Years of Public Service and Public Discussion in the Editorial Columns of the New York World (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1908), pp. 83, 88.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-social-security-plan-crfb-benefits-cut-insolvency/
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/harris-home-health-care-medicare-proposal/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/10/21/free-birth-control-pills/
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/22/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-rfk-gabbard-town-hall-00184884
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/harris-trump-presidential-election-live-updates-rcna176306
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-military-generals-hitler/680327/
https://variety.com/2024/music/news/eminem-supports-kamala-harris-barack-obama-detroit-rally-1236187123/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-proposes-rule-to-expand-coverage-of-affordable-contraception-under-the-affordable-care-act/
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-2024-election-kamala-harris-robert-lighthizer-29c07e94
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-trump-fitness-character.html
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Very nice. I will check them out since you did all that work. Much appreciated.
Both parties need more moderates participating at the party meetings.
Generally agree with this post, but you;d argue a few points. Only question I'll ask is in number 3 of the final summary, How can people think that police treat whites different than blacks or other minorities when most PD's are made up of increasing numbers of those same minorities?