Problem is, if it really is very close, it’s going to be very ugly. Trump is already casting doubt on the election’s legitimacy in case he loses. And he’s got more minions in the States to help do his bidding.
Oh please, the DOJ is already promoting the Russia disinformation fairy tale (for the third time) in order to increase censorship. Every major newspaper/Pravda has Democrats flacking this same story. Shall I list all the Democrat election deniers??
Russian disinformation fairy tale? It’s a fact! I never understood critics of “Russiagate” who think Russia peddling in our elections was a nothing burger. It may not have been what the media made it out to be, but it wasn’t nothing then and it’s not nothing now.
Merrick Garland is as straight of an arrow as you can get at the DOJ (has done Trump plenty of favors by not pursuing him much faster to where he’d possibly be convicted federally by now), and he is rightly leveling with the American people on what Russia is doing.
And of course you could, but it’s a false equivalency. Trump is on another planet in that aspect.
It doesn't help that our Intelligence Agencies are spreading fears of illegitimate by citing Russia and/or Iran constantly. It keys everyone on all sides to question the results no matter what. However, I mostly agree that there's really no way to be that sure right now. Because I try to think about these things from the viewpoint of someone who doesn't follow politics closely, I always want the side I'm voting for to think they are losing at least a little. Americans can get very lazy if they think everyone else has it covered.
Love ya Ruy, but no. It really isn't., I"ll bet you a hamburger or, if you're in PHX a taco dinner.
Three big reasons
1) Most polls are ridiculously overstating Harris and as always understating Trump. Based on past anti-Trump polling error, Trump is up (or up very comfortably) in AZ, GA, FL, NC, OH, IA, PA, MI, WI. The only one truly close is NV, but that is also Trump's. We did an analysis of WI. Looks like Trump will win there by 43,000 votes in the WORST case scenario, by 4 if traditional polling proves as bad as it always has.
2) Voter reg. Off the charts for Rs, who now have a quarter MILLION lead in AZ, 800,000 in FL, and who have cut NC's D lead by 50% even when Trump already won the state 2x with a 300,000+lead. They are all going the same direction 30/30 states with party reg. We can't follow GA or MI, but if you've got 30/30 you can bet those states are seeing high GOP reg margins too.
3) Early ballots are collapsing for Ds. GA down 90% from 2020, where Biden won 30% more; and PA is down 131,000 Ds. So, no, not close
Problem is, if it really is very close, it’s going to be very ugly. Trump is already casting doubt on the election’s legitimacy in case he loses. And he’s got more minions in the States to help do his bidding.
Oh please, the DOJ is already promoting the Russia disinformation fairy tale (for the third time) in order to increase censorship. Every major newspaper/Pravda has Democrats flacking this same story. Shall I list all the Democrat election deniers??
Russian disinformation fairy tale? It’s a fact! I never understood critics of “Russiagate” who think Russia peddling in our elections was a nothing burger. It may not have been what the media made it out to be, but it wasn’t nothing then and it’s not nothing now.
Merrick Garland is as straight of an arrow as you can get at the DOJ (has done Trump plenty of favors by not pursuing him much faster to where he’d possibly be convicted federally by now), and he is rightly leveling with the American people on what Russia is doing.
And of course you could, but it’s a false equivalency. Trump is on another planet in that aspect.
It doesn't help that our Intelligence Agencies are spreading fears of illegitimate by citing Russia and/or Iran constantly. It keys everyone on all sides to question the results no matter what. However, I mostly agree that there's really no way to be that sure right now. Because I try to think about these things from the viewpoint of someone who doesn't follow politics closely, I always want the side I'm voting for to think they are losing at least a little. Americans can get very lazy if they think everyone else has it covered.
Love ya Ruy, but no. It really isn't., I"ll bet you a hamburger or, if you're in PHX a taco dinner.
Three big reasons
1) Most polls are ridiculously overstating Harris and as always understating Trump. Based on past anti-Trump polling error, Trump is up (or up very comfortably) in AZ, GA, FL, NC, OH, IA, PA, MI, WI. The only one truly close is NV, but that is also Trump's. We did an analysis of WI. Looks like Trump will win there by 43,000 votes in the WORST case scenario, by 4 if traditional polling proves as bad as it always has.
2) Voter reg. Off the charts for Rs, who now have a quarter MILLION lead in AZ, 800,000 in FL, and who have cut NC's D lead by 50% even when Trump already won the state 2x with a 300,000+lead. They are all going the same direction 30/30 states with party reg. We can't follow GA or MI, but if you've got 30/30 you can bet those states are seeing high GOP reg margins too.
3) Early ballots are collapsing for Ds. GA down 90% from 2020, where Biden won 30% more; and PA is down 131,000 Ds. So, no, not close
Name your hamburger or taco restaurant.
Amateurs who are unskewing polls either have too much time on their hands or are trying to fool somebody..