The Downward Trajectory of RFK Jr.

As recently as this spring, Democrats were extremely worried that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could spoil Biden’s reelection. Polls showed Kennedy hovering between 10 and 15 percent—with more of his support coming from Biden supporters and Democratic-leaning independents than from Republicans. Young voters, long a weakness of the Biden campaign, seemed particularly open to his third-party candidacy. Fast forward a few months and Kennedy’s vote share has plummeted to roughly 5 percent—a sudden, though not entirely unexpected, collapse.

Third-party vote share almost always fades as Election Day approaches. The double-digit support Kennedy pulled this spring never seemed destined to last. Even before President Biden dropped out, Kennedy’s polling average had dropped from 11.6 percent on March 1 to 7.8 percent the night before the June debate. 

The last month, however, has seen a sharper drop. In a CBS/YouGov poll conducted right after the debate, Kennedy still pulled 11 percent. One month later, with Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket, Kennedy’s share had dropped to 2 percent. Their findings show a more exaggerated decline than most, but poll after poll now finds Kennedy in the low-single digits.

What happened?

---

---

In short, partisan Democrats have come home to Kamala. Democratic-leaning “double haters” found Kennedy to be a convenient place to register a protest vote. Once Biden stepped down, however, these Democrats were once again happy to root for their team. The CBS/YouGov polls found Biden at 84 percent among Democrats, but Kamala at 96 percent. Much of that increase came at the expense of Kennedy. There is evidence, too, that Trump has recaptured some of Kennedy’s right-wing supporters. 

Of course, Kennedy has not helped his case. Brain worms and dead bears are hardly election-winning headlines. The well-funded Democratic effort to paint Kennedy as a Trump-adjacent extremist has likely helped drive down his support as well. In fact, the conventional wisdom that Kennedy’s candidacy helps Trump may now have flipped. Polls from the New York Times and Wall Street Journal have Harris behind in a head-to-head with Trump, but narrowly ahead when Kennedy is included on the ballot. 

Despite a dramatic drop in support, RFK Jr. might still play an important role in November. The Electoral College once again looks like a toss-up—third-party support, as in 2016, could tilt a close election. With deadlines nearing, both the Harris and Trump campaigns should watch RFK Jr.’s battleground ballot push with great interest.