Ruy, I love ya man. You are one of the few libs who makes sense. But repeat after me: AZ, GA, and NC are not battlegrounds. The voter registration shifts---forget the bogus polling that is out there---are huge, and I mean MONSTROUSLY in favor of the GOP. AZ Maricopa Co. ALONE has now exceeded by 30,000 Trump's margin of loss in 2020 by 3x; the whole states is a quarter million R advantage. We can track daily changes on the MC website, and the margin keeps getting bigger. This is actual evidence, not a "sample" of what someone "says" they "Intend" to do in a month or three months (a poll). NC, which voted for Trump 2x with much heavier D margins, has slashed the D advantage in half. PA was D+300,000, today less than D+150,000. GA has no vote-by-registration, but it's pretty clear Trump is up there by 4-5.
So the Blue Wall: we can't measure MN, WI, or MI because they don't do voter reg, but we can measure it in IA (through the roof for Rs) and OH, as well as PA. All of these are moving the same direction, and all because of what YOU pointed out, the Ds abandoning the working class.
Forget previous elections, except for 20 and 16: an election isn't remotely the same with Trump on the ballot as when he is off. Only he brings out the massive WI rural evangelical vote and the MI autoworker vote. I know many don't like the "fraud" word, but if you think there was ANY fraud at all in 2020 (I think it was huge) then Biden didn't even legit win any of those states.
I think this is something Democrats should be very, very concerned about. Oh, and Trump is going to take NV too, where the Hispanic R vote is surging. Clark may well be only D+1 or 2 on election day. Not nearly enough.
FL has one million more registered Reps than Democrats. Dems are not flipping it, anytime soon.
Texas is the perineal football, held by Lucy. Beto O'Rourke, the 2nd coming of JFK, spent more money than any Senate raise in US history, and lost to an unpopular Ted Cruz, who campaigned, in earnest, about 14 days.
That was before Dems opened the border. No state in the US has born the burden of millions of unvetted migrants, more than Texas. Long before anyone heard of Laken Riley, Texas teenage girls were being killed by Biden/Harris new arrivals. They perish in their bathtubs, after being raped and murdered, or in car crashes caused by migrant drivers.
And no one has been hurt worse than legal Hispanic Texans, and they are not happy. A neighbor who happens to be a Hispanic Texas State legislator, was driven from his family border ranch due to safety concerns for his wife and kids. The kids could play outside, only with armed adults nearby. Everyone had to be armed, every time they left the house. Migrants destroying fences and water systems are bankrupting ranchers. The vast majority of whom, are Hispanic, and whom employ many other Hispanics. He noted Texas was likely on its' way to being purpled, but the open border, virtually guarantees, Texas stays Red for decades to come.
"Not to mention that if the Democrats can flip back Florida or finally get over the hump in Texas" -- not even a remote possibility as long as Dems run extremely left wing candidates like Harris/Walz
Ruy, I love ya man. You are one of the few libs who makes sense. But repeat after me: AZ, GA, and NC are not battlegrounds. The voter registration shifts---forget the bogus polling that is out there---are huge, and I mean MONSTROUSLY in favor of the GOP. AZ Maricopa Co. ALONE has now exceeded by 30,000 Trump's margin of loss in 2020 by 3x; the whole states is a quarter million R advantage. We can track daily changes on the MC website, and the margin keeps getting bigger. This is actual evidence, not a "sample" of what someone "says" they "Intend" to do in a month or three months (a poll). NC, which voted for Trump 2x with much heavier D margins, has slashed the D advantage in half. PA was D+300,000, today less than D+150,000. GA has no vote-by-registration, but it's pretty clear Trump is up there by 4-5.
So the Blue Wall: we can't measure MN, WI, or MI because they don't do voter reg, but we can measure it in IA (through the roof for Rs) and OH, as well as PA. All of these are moving the same direction, and all because of what YOU pointed out, the Ds abandoning the working class.
Forget previous elections, except for 20 and 16: an election isn't remotely the same with Trump on the ballot as when he is off. Only he brings out the massive WI rural evangelical vote and the MI autoworker vote. I know many don't like the "fraud" word, but if you think there was ANY fraud at all in 2020 (I think it was huge) then Biden didn't even legit win any of those states.
I think this is something Democrats should be very, very concerned about. Oh, and Trump is going to take NV too, where the Hispanic R vote is surging. Clark may well be only D+1 or 2 on election day. Not nearly enough.
Excellent analysis
FL has one million more registered Reps than Democrats. Dems are not flipping it, anytime soon.
Texas is the perineal football, held by Lucy. Beto O'Rourke, the 2nd coming of JFK, spent more money than any Senate raise in US history, and lost to an unpopular Ted Cruz, who campaigned, in earnest, about 14 days.
That was before Dems opened the border. No state in the US has born the burden of millions of unvetted migrants, more than Texas. Long before anyone heard of Laken Riley, Texas teenage girls were being killed by Biden/Harris new arrivals. They perish in their bathtubs, after being raped and murdered, or in car crashes caused by migrant drivers.
And no one has been hurt worse than legal Hispanic Texans, and they are not happy. A neighbor who happens to be a Hispanic Texas State legislator, was driven from his family border ranch due to safety concerns for his wife and kids. The kids could play outside, only with armed adults nearby. Everyone had to be armed, every time they left the house. Migrants destroying fences and water systems are bankrupting ranchers. The vast majority of whom, are Hispanic, and whom employ many other Hispanics. He noted Texas was likely on its' way to being purpled, but the open border, virtually guarantees, Texas stays Red for decades to come.
"Not to mention that if the Democrats can flip back Florida or finally get over the hump in Texas" -- not even a remote possibility as long as Dems run extremely left wing candidates like Harris/Walz