The Deepening Diploma Divide
We are on track for a historically large education divide among white voters. An average of recent polls finds Joe Biden winning white college-educated voters by 18 points and losing white non-college voters by 27 points—a colossal gap of 45 points.
Compared to 2020 results, Trump’s margin with non-college whites is holding steady, while Biden has significantly improved his standing with degree-holding whites. Such Democratic improvement is certainly welcome for Team Biden, but not unexpected. College-educated white voters have been shifting blue for a decade, driven left by Trump and the GOP’s hardline cultural stances. The flip side of the demographic coin is that nonwhite voters, particularly those without a degree, are moving towards Republicans. Should current trends continue, education polarization—rather than racial—will become the defining feature of American elections.
White voters were not always polarized by education level. Throughout the 1980s and 90s, the white college and non-college vote tracked relatively closely. In 1992, for example, the divide was just two points: Bill Clinton lost college whites by one point and won non-college whites by one point. Such margins are unthinkable today.
The last time white education polarization reached even remotely similar heights was the 1960s—but the margins were reversed. In 1960, JFK won non-college whites, but lost college whites to Nixon by a 2-1 margin. In his landslide 1964 win, Lyndon Johnson nearly cleared 60 percent with non-college whites, but still lost college whites.
Today, of course, Democratic margins with the white working class are near all-time lows, while their margins with college-educated voters continue to grow. The trend shows no sign of slowing in 2024.
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A more accurate demographic is the divide among educated women and the rest. This is the quickly rising ruling class/group, and they will always disdain everyone else. As the rulers become more and more controlling, extremism will prevail.
This isn't a divide between educated and uneducated -- it's a divide between rich and poor, and since the rich makes the rules, they are unloading their college debt onto working people. Working people resent paying student loans for married couples who can make up to a quarter of a million dollars each year. This is not forgiveness, it's debt that is being transferred from the haves to the have nots, the people who went without and paid their student loans, paid their expenses by working, or chose an alternate route. Gee, can't imagine why folks aren't on board for that.