The Battle for Skeptical Independents

Actions matter more than words with non-partisan voters.

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(Getty Images)

Independent voters come in several stripes. The bulk are traditional moderates who favor pragmatism and core American values over radicalism and extreme positions that increasingly define the two political parties. Others are either right- or left-populist voters, Americans who disdain the political system for a variety of reasons due to incompetence and corruption, and desire a sometimes odd mix of changes to the status quo. The final group of independents are mostly disengaged and disaffected voters, those who keep up with politics and check in on elections only sporadically, if at all, as they pursue other things in life. 

The one thing that unifies these diverse independent voters is skepticism of anything politicians say—across the board, independents feel politicians are basically full of it, have few principles, and will say anything to anyone if they think it gives them a leg up on the other party. 

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To win these skeptical independent voters, actions matter a lot more than words. Right now, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have hit a wall in terms of showing independents who they are and what they are about through their deeds rather than proclaiming more things these voters fundamentally don’t believe.

The debate last night likely did little to assuage their doubts. Debates in general have lost their importance as defining moments in presidential campaigns, with the exception of Biden’s performance in June which drastically altered the internal dynamics of his own party. The pattern is always the same. Partisans defend their candidate and say he or she “obviously” won the debate. Analysts score points on style or substance. But most non-partisan voters either don’t watch these things, tune in for a bit and leave, or wait to see what others are saying the next day before making a partial conclusion.

One of the candidates might get a bump in the polls and the other a ding based on the performance, but a week from now most voters will have moved on from a night of bickering and fighting.

Looking at Adam Carlson’s nice cross-tab aggregator, independent voters (including those who lean to either Democrats or Republicans) remain essentially split on their 2024 vote choice with 45 percent favoring Harris and 44 percent favoring Trump. Notably, the current head-to-head marks a significant decline in independent support for Democrats who backed Biden over Trump by nine points on average in 2020. 

Donald Trump has been in the public eye for a long time, and still hasn’t managed to significantly increase his national support to reach majority status. Why? For independent voters who aren’t already aligned with him, his personal and presidential actions—particularly those after his election loss in 2020—define him in a highly negative manner. Nothing much he says in this campaign will be taken seriously by these voters since he’s already proven himself to be an untrustworthy person and failed leader.

Has Trump done anything notable this campaign cycle to prove to voters that he has evolved personally and politically from his past behavior? Not really. He said a few things that suggested possible moderation on abortion, but then turned around and said he would vote no on a ballot measure to repeal Florida’s six-week abortion ban after appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned the national right to abortion in the first place. Trump continues to downplay and defend his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden—and even promises “on Day 1” if elected president again to pardon the convicted people who attacked the U.S. Capitol on his behalf.

Not surprisingly, given his deeds and lack of tangible improvement, Trump is stuck at 46 to 48 percent nationally. Actions over words.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is basically a non-entity with many independent voters who are not already aligned with her. Although she has been vice president for nearly four years, many voters remain unaware of the concrete actions she has taken on domestic and foreign policy to help define and advance the Biden administration agenda.

For example, they haven’t heard much if anything from her about why she took steps to cast tie-breaking votes in the Senate to advance major legislation like the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act—and what she hoped to achieve in doing so. It wasn’t just that she was Biden’s vice president, surely. She clearly believed in the substance of these bills and voted to pass them, and consequently, would be wise to defend these actions and their consequences to voters as evidence of what she will do as president rather than what she says as a politician.

Likewise, people still know very little about Harris’s time as a U.S. Senator and attorney general in California. What did she do in those jobs and what actions or steps would she highlight today to show—not tell—voters what kind of person and leader she has been and would be as president? It’s a bit of a mystery honestly.

In terms of policy debates, particularly between the center and the left in the Democratic Party, where and how has Harris concretely broken with the progressive left as state attorney general, as U.S. Senator, and as the current vice president? Inquiring minds want to know. Calling yourself a moderate is not the same thing as proving to hesitant voters that you are a moderate. Actions over words—again.

What independent and other undecided voters have heard about Harris is a lot of back and forth about the out-of-the-mainstream positions she took in the 2020 Democratic primary that she has since renounced in the short 2024 presidential campaign following Biden’s exit.

But barring some deeper awareness of what Harris has actually accomplished as a political leader, it’s hard to believe that these new words and policy positions will be convincing to a range of skeptical independent or undecided voters.

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In the few remaining weeks of the election, it would helpful for both Trump and Harris to spend more time proving to voters—through their past and current actions and serious future pledges—that they genuinely mean what they say and that they possess the personal character and leadership qualities necessary to serve the American people well. 

To win over remaining skeptical independents, many of whom are still making up their mind about the two candidates, it’s critical for Trump and Harris to concretely challenge public assumptions about who they are and how they might govern.

Ultimately, their actions as leaders will matter more to independents than empty campaign rhetoric and partisan cheerleading that voters won’t believe anyway.  

“Talk is cheap, it takes money to buy whiskey,” as the old proverb goes.