Why is Biden's trajectory a surprise to anyone? Americans have not experienced inflation of this magnitude since the 1970s. The WSJ recently calculated, since Biden walked into the WH, gas prices are up 50%, food is up 37%, not the 20% Dems admit, and electricity is up 30%. The increases have hit life necessities hardest. Food and fuel are not handbags, sofas or jeans. Families cannot make their old ones, last a little longer.
Meanwhile, the the top quintile of US families , are enjoying, unprecedented, appreciation on asset values. The bifurcated economy, has caused Dems to assume only the perception of the economy is the problem, not actual prices.
Add to the worst inflation, in a 1/2 century, 10 million unvetted migrants, overwhelming the same neighborhoods, hit hardest by inflation and Covid. The new arrivals are worsening the shortage of affordable housing, and sending rents soaring, to say nothing, of worsening crime. The migrants are also crushing, underperforming, schools. Literally, hundreds of thousands of new students , have been dropped into lower and middle earning neighborhoods. Many lack not only English skills, but any previous formal education.
To add insult to injury, just as there appears to be no limit on the number of migrants the US will accept, there is no limit on migrant spending, either. US families, told for years, their government is too tapped out to provide better schools, or safer streets , are watching new migrants bath in endless government handouts. The WSJ calculates NYC and Chicago spend more than $80K, a year, on each migrant, in their cities. The annual, US median household income, for entire families, is only $75K.
Nor is the situation, likely to improve anytime soon, for the bulk of Americans. Neither inflation, nor the migrants are going anywhere. The surprise should not be Trump is winning, but that he is not winning by far greater margins.
What is it with the Nates? We've got Nate Silver at 538, Nate Cohen at the NYT, and now Nate Moore of AEI. Is Nate a pseudonym given to all numbers crunchers?
Im afraid this is right. There are very smart analysts who argue the opposite but their arguments - which were convincing to me a month ago - have the feel now of the sort of wishful thinking you often hear at the end of a close but losing campaign. I’m old and I think that Nov will be the last presidential election I’m allowed to vote in.
Had not thought it was quite so close at this point.
The map is very well done, and am not surprised by it, itself, just the electoral values attached and where they lead to.
The only difference is that North Carolina has gone for Trump each time he has been on the ballot, I do not see that changing here. Georgia, just barely was won by Biden, am not expecting it this time, so would color those deep red.
Despite Nebraska's sole vote that tends to lean Democrat, would not bet money on it this election.
That's my view today, tomorrow and further on, polling may change, but it will have to be after the Republican Convention, my guess, before it does one way or the other.
Why is Biden's trajectory a surprise to anyone? Americans have not experienced inflation of this magnitude since the 1970s. The WSJ recently calculated, since Biden walked into the WH, gas prices are up 50%, food is up 37%, not the 20% Dems admit, and electricity is up 30%. The increases have hit life necessities hardest. Food and fuel are not handbags, sofas or jeans. Families cannot make their old ones, last a little longer.
Meanwhile, the the top quintile of US families , are enjoying, unprecedented, appreciation on asset values. The bifurcated economy, has caused Dems to assume only the perception of the economy is the problem, not actual prices.
Add to the worst inflation, in a 1/2 century, 10 million unvetted migrants, overwhelming the same neighborhoods, hit hardest by inflation and Covid. The new arrivals are worsening the shortage of affordable housing, and sending rents soaring, to say nothing, of worsening crime. The migrants are also crushing, underperforming, schools. Literally, hundreds of thousands of new students , have been dropped into lower and middle earning neighborhoods. Many lack not only English skills, but any previous formal education.
To add insult to injury, just as there appears to be no limit on the number of migrants the US will accept, there is no limit on migrant spending, either. US families, told for years, their government is too tapped out to provide better schools, or safer streets , are watching new migrants bath in endless government handouts. The WSJ calculates NYC and Chicago spend more than $80K, a year, on each migrant, in their cities. The annual, US median household income, for entire families, is only $75K.
Nor is the situation, likely to improve anytime soon, for the bulk of Americans. Neither inflation, nor the migrants are going anywhere. The surprise should not be Trump is winning, but that he is not winning by far greater margins.
What is it with the Nates? We've got Nate Silver at 538, Nate Cohen at the NYT, and now Nate Moore of AEI. Is Nate a pseudonym given to all numbers crunchers?
Im afraid this is right. There are very smart analysts who argue the opposite but their arguments - which were convincing to me a month ago - have the feel now of the sort of wishful thinking you often hear at the end of a close but losing campaign. I’m old and I think that Nov will be the last presidential election I’m allowed to vote in.
Had not thought it was quite so close at this point.
The map is very well done, and am not surprised by it, itself, just the electoral values attached and where they lead to.
The only difference is that North Carolina has gone for Trump each time he has been on the ballot, I do not see that changing here. Georgia, just barely was won by Biden, am not expecting it this time, so would color those deep red.
Despite Nebraska's sole vote that tends to lean Democrat, would not bet money on it this election.
That's my view today, tomorrow and further on, polling may change, but it will have to be after the Republican Convention, my guess, before it does one way or the other.