Ok, Ruy, this is one I disagree with you on. I distinctly remember one pollster had Clinton +11 in WI (!!!) and the average was a miss of 6 points; I was in OH at the time and every single pollster except Baris and Trafalgar had Trump around +4 in OH (was +8.5 in 16). In 20, again, the pollsters averaged Trump +4 in OH (one had him losing by 4!) and again he was +8. So perhaps it's whatever potpourri of pollsters you choose. I would immediately boot Quinnipiac, TIPP, NBC, yougov, Fox, and Economist. The only ones in this cycle reasonably close are Insider Advantage, Democracy Institute, Atlas, Baris/Big Data, and Trafalgar.
You are quite right that Trump overperforms on average at least 2.1. BUT . . .
This cycle even THAT misses that massive, and I mean massive voter registration changes. I've talked about AZ before---last night Maricopa Co. alone went over 174,000 R advantage. Game over here. But the movement is shocking in PA, where Rs have out registered Ds by almost 40,000 in the last month alone. New Hampshire (yes, NH) has gotten so close that my colleague Seth Keshel ("Captain K's Corner on substack) Now has it a tie.
Finally---and I know people hate to hear this---I don't believe ANY 2020 stats are trustworthy. Simply no 81 million votes. So it's a corrupted data file. We'll see, but I hear other rumblings that Harris has pulled all ads from NV. If true, she's already given up there.
Ok, Ruy, this is one I disagree with you on. I distinctly remember one pollster had Clinton +11 in WI (!!!) and the average was a miss of 6 points; I was in OH at the time and every single pollster except Baris and Trafalgar had Trump around +4 in OH (was +8.5 in 16). In 20, again, the pollsters averaged Trump +4 in OH (one had him losing by 4!) and again he was +8. So perhaps it's whatever potpourri of pollsters you choose. I would immediately boot Quinnipiac, TIPP, NBC, yougov, Fox, and Economist. The only ones in this cycle reasonably close are Insider Advantage, Democracy Institute, Atlas, Baris/Big Data, and Trafalgar.
You are quite right that Trump overperforms on average at least 2.1. BUT . . .
This cycle even THAT misses that massive, and I mean massive voter registration changes. I've talked about AZ before---last night Maricopa Co. alone went over 174,000 R advantage. Game over here. But the movement is shocking in PA, where Rs have out registered Ds by almost 40,000 in the last month alone. New Hampshire (yes, NH) has gotten so close that my colleague Seth Keshel ("Captain K's Corner on substack) Now has it a tie.
Finally---and I know people hate to hear this---I don't believe ANY 2020 stats are trustworthy. Simply no 81 million votes. So it's a corrupted data file. We'll see, but I hear other rumblings that Harris has pulled all ads from NV. If true, she's already given up there.