Lessons From the Suozzi Victory in NY-3
On November 8, 2022, Democrats around the country celebrated a mid-term election in which the president’s party did not suffer the large losses history has taught us to expect. But the anticipated red wave landed on the shores of New York with force, punishing Democrats on Long Island, in Westchester and Rockland counties, and up the Hudson Valley.
New York’s third congressional district (NY-3), which includes a large chunk of Nassau County and a sliver of northeast Queens, elected a little-known Republican named George Santos by eight points. Two years earlier, Joe Biden carried the district by eight points and then-Congressman Tom Suozzi disposed of Santos by 12 points. In 2021, Republicans won back the Nassau County Executive office and in 2023 the GOP dominated local elections on Long Island.
Given the wild partisan swings in the district, Santos’ expulsion from Congress on fraud and corruption grounds set up a highly anticipated special election. The race received immense media attention and huge investments from Democrats and Republicans. On February 13, Tom Suozzi prevailed 54-46 percent, turning the tide in suburban New York for the first time in four years.
So, what happened and what lessons can we learn?
First, candidate quality matters. Tom Suozzi entered the race well-known and well-liked. Democrats stood solidly behind him, and he attracted a bloc of Republicans who respected and liked him. Suozzi was a work horse on the campaign trail, holding press conferences, attending community events, and conducting interviews nearly every day.
After nominating someone who outright fabricated his life story in 2022, Republican leaders chose an inexperienced candidate with an inspirational story. Mazi Pilip was airlifted from Ethiopia to Israel, served in the Israeli military, and moved to Long Island where she was elected to the Nassau County Legislature. On paper, she sounded like a great candidate and appeared well-positioned to continue recent Republican successes on Long Island. But she failed to live up to the hype, with her campaign carefully scripted by Republican Party bosses to avoid taking positions on tough issues. She also largely demurred from facing the press and the voters.
Second, voters desperately want candidates ready to rise above party politics to address the country’s problems. Suozzi made clear that he’s a proud Democrat, but one willing to work with anyone for our country and his constituents. He instinctively understood voters’ frustration and gave voice to it, opening his campaign with a speech and an ad about finding common ground. While Suozzi offered a salve to our broken politics, Pilip echoed her party’s blame game talking points without offering real solutions. Ironically, the Republican candidate is a registered Democrat, but she couldn’t offer one example where she’d work across party lines.
Third, the debate between turnout and persuasion is a false choice. NY-3 is a clear example of how wildly the electorate can fluctuate between elections. In 2016 and 2020, Democrats held a +10 to +11 point party registration advantage among those who voted, similar to their +11 margin among all registered voters; in 2018, the Democratic advantage surged to +13. But in 2022, this edge dropped to +4.5 points, and in the lower-turnout odd-year elections of 2021 and 2023, the electorate was even less Democratic. While we’re awaiting final numbers for the latest special election, we estimate the Democratic advantage on February 13 was nine points. Turnout mattered.
But the four-to-five-point turnout improvement for Democrats only explains about a quarter of the difference between Suozzi’s eight-point win and his eight-point loss in 2022. Persuasion also mattered.
Fourth, and most revealing for other campaigns, Democrats need to find the balance between controlling the terrain of the debate and responding to effective attacks on unfriendly turf. Immigration and the cost of living were the most important issues for voters in NY-3. And immigration was Suozzi’s biggest vulnerability.
Republicans ran ad after ad accusing Suozzi of support for open borders and using a clip where he talked about kicking the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency out of Nassau County as County Executive—never mind that fact that he did so at the request of the police commissioner after ICE agents raided the wrong houses and pointed their guns at Nassau County Police.
From the beginning of his campaign, Suozzi emphasized bipartisan solutions to immigration. He held an early press conference highlighting his ideas to address immigration, and the campaign’s positive ads included immigration proposals. And we prepared a response ad even before Republicans started their onslaught of attacks. Suozzi had co-authored an op-ed in 2019 with former Long Island Republican Congressman Peter King articulating a grand compromise that included more border security and a path to citizenship for Dreamers—those who illegally entered the United States as minors—among other provisions. King endorsed Pilip, but that didn’t stop our campaign from highlighting the bipartisan proposal—we welcomed any debate about Suozzi’s bipartisan approach. Moreover, during the campaign, Suozzi proposed an Ellis Island-level approach to processing asylum seekers.
Simply put, Suozzi took the issue seriously and didn’t cede it to his opponent.
At the same time, it’s hard for Democrats to win races that are solely focused on issues like immigration where Republicans traditionally have advantages. NY-3 is an overwhelmingly pro-choice district and abortion was Pilip’s biggest vulnerability. Yet most voters didn’t believe abortion rights were truly at risk in New York and when we pitted abortion against immigration, most expressed greater concern about immigration.
So we had to elevate abortion as an issue, shine a light on the threat of a national ban, and hold Pilip’s feet to the fire as she articulated nonsensical answers to mask her anti-abortion views. Democrats aired extensive ads lambasting Pilip for running on the line of New York’s Conservative Party, whose platform calls for banning abortion. And Suozzi pushed her for real answers during their debate.
The lesson for Democrats: Define the terms of the debate when you can, but anticipate and respond to vulnerabilities when you must.
Mike Bocian is a principal at GBAO, which served as pollster for the Suozzi campaign.