"...he’s bound to see many voters who wanted a different option but who also cannot stand the idea of a second Trump term come home and vote for him."
This is undoubtedly true. But at least in the case of this lifelong Democrat, I will do so completely disillusioned with the party and it's future.
In the era of a post-truth GOP, I imagine there are many Democrats like myself that take great pride in a party that at least nominally still appeals to reason, rationale, and truth. Biden's continuing campaign obliterates that completely. They will gaslight everyone all the way to election day, and will take the credibility of every supporting party member down with them for a generation. You can't spin cognitive decline, you can only lie about it.
I suspect that one reason journalists and political writers have reacted so quickly to the debate is because they, too, recognize this and also believe the Democrats to be, on average, the party of reason. If you're someone for whom reason and rationality is part of your identity, then seeing your party abdicate it is pretty demoralizing.
Ironically, the only rational argument here is the one the Biden campaign can't make, even if most Democrats will reach this conclusion. That is, that a senile Biden is better than Trump any day of the week.
"One obvious way to ameliorate Biden’s critics would be to put him in front of a camera in unscripted situations, such as press conferences or in-person interviews, as often as possible."
I'm no Biden fan, but I am an American. It is horribly irresponsible and verging on immoral to vote for a man who has cognitive decline like his. If he has a mental handicap, it's not even his fault! He's not in his normal state of mind to make the best choice. Would I leave my grandchild alone with him? No. So, why in the world would I vote for him to be in charge of all of my fellow brothers and sisters in citizenship? No way.
In the 1970s Brian DePalma movie of Stephen King's "Carrie," Mrs. White implores her daughter not to go to the prom, saying, "They're all going to laugh at you!" Carrie should have listened.
Now, Democratic Party grandees and donors need to go to Joe Biden and tell him, "You are going to lose to Donald Trump, and when you do, they're all going to laugh at you - especially Donald Trump." It's the only argument that can possibly convince Biden to drop out of the race.
The more I read about Biden’s condition, the more I think Harris has a better chance of beating Trump. Probably should pick Whitmer as her running mate.
Do you think polling methods have corrected some since *underestimating* Trump in 2020?
I think if we look at polling and it is quite accurate, Biden (or Kamala) will lose. But if it’s wrong by even a small amount, even the margin of error, then he may be able to hold on by a thread.
One thing he has going for him too is the potential for all the facts regarding Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election coming out just before the election. I think that will turn some heads and potentially change some minds, despite voters’ concerns about Biden or Harris.
It's possible, but I'm not convinced that's what is going on here. Pollsters do seem to have worked hard to fix their errors from 2016 and 2020. Obviously, polls can always be wrong, but they are still the best real-time tool we have for gauging the public's attitudes at any point in time.
Also, I am skeptical that there's much about Trump's post-2020 antics that the public hasn't already heard and that would change the race that late in the game.
Yeah, I am just wondering if the polls now are more accurate, and thus the race is as close as they suggest. Because if the polls are still underestimating Trump, then they suggest he’ll win in a landslide.
To pick up on your last point, if it public attitudes toward Trump are already too baked in and having Harris more vigorously go after him if she were the nominee won’t make much difference, then I don’t think the argument is as strong to ditch Biden.
The risk will be Biden further weakening himself, of course; but if he doesn’t do that, then I think Dems sticking with him is stronger.
Unfortunately, I think a lot of voters see Harris as more extreme and dangerous. It’s like you said before: she probably has a lower floor but a higher ceiling.
I think either they stick with Biden or Biden endorses Harris without any competition and finishes his term. That way they hew as close to the incumbency advantage and keep the transition as smooth as possible. I think history shows intraparty fighting is ultimately destructive.
Yeah, intraparty fights haven't historically boded well for the parties having them. But I also think we're in uncharted territory, given the entrenched unpopularity of the incumbent. Normally, I eschew calls for drastic measures, especially if they're made from a place of emotion. But not fundamentally changing course in the face of numerous warning signs could also ultimately be seen as the more foolish move.
For sure. It’s a very difficult predicament they’re in. I’d say is about a 50/50 prospect of greater success either way. Both choices have risks that we will potentially be able to look back on and say, “the data and the warning signs were there.”
Democrats should be thinking carefully about JRB in '24 and who they will run against a "post-Trump" GOP in '28 and beyond. Now is not the time to be gaslighting people into supporting someone older than their grandparents for one of the most demanding jobs in the world. Losing credibility is a hard thing to regain.
"...he’s bound to see many voters who wanted a different option but who also cannot stand the idea of a second Trump term come home and vote for him."
This is undoubtedly true. But at least in the case of this lifelong Democrat, I will do so completely disillusioned with the party and it's future.
In the era of a post-truth GOP, I imagine there are many Democrats like myself that take great pride in a party that at least nominally still appeals to reason, rationale, and truth. Biden's continuing campaign obliterates that completely. They will gaslight everyone all the way to election day, and will take the credibility of every supporting party member down with them for a generation. You can't spin cognitive decline, you can only lie about it.
I suspect that one reason journalists and political writers have reacted so quickly to the debate is because they, too, recognize this and also believe the Democrats to be, on average, the party of reason. If you're someone for whom reason and rationality is part of your identity, then seeing your party abdicate it is pretty demoralizing.
Ironically, the only rational argument here is the one the Biden campaign can't make, even if most Democrats will reach this conclusion. That is, that a senile Biden is better than Trump any day of the week.
"One obvious way to ameliorate Biden’s critics would be to put him in front of a camera in unscripted situations, such as press conferences or in-person interviews, as often as possible."
Delusional.
I'm no Biden fan, but I am an American. It is horribly irresponsible and verging on immoral to vote for a man who has cognitive decline like his. If he has a mental handicap, it's not even his fault! He's not in his normal state of mind to make the best choice. Would I leave my grandchild alone with him? No. So, why in the world would I vote for him to be in charge of all of my fellow brothers and sisters in citizenship? No way.
So you’d vote for Trump instead?
It depends on what happens and who is on the ticket, honestly.
Wonderful. We now have a resolute press corps united to drive Biden out. We also have a resolute press corp,too cowardly to confront Trump
Kennedy for the win.
In the 1970s Brian DePalma movie of Stephen King's "Carrie," Mrs. White implores her daughter not to go to the prom, saying, "They're all going to laugh at you!" Carrie should have listened.
Now, Democratic Party grandees and donors need to go to Joe Biden and tell him, "You are going to lose to Donald Trump, and when you do, they're all going to laugh at you - especially Donald Trump." It's the only argument that can possibly convince Biden to drop out of the race.
The more I read about Biden’s condition, the more I think Harris has a better chance of beating Trump. Probably should pick Whitmer as her running mate.
I think Shapiro would be better. Unfortunately I think two women on the ticket would spook a lot of voters (sad, but probably true).
If Shapiro declined, I think a vanilla, moderate Dem like Governo Cooper of North Carolina would be the next best choice.
Whitmer is Hillary in a brown wig and less likeable. Why anyone is promoting her is a mystery to me.
Do you think polling methods have corrected some since *underestimating* Trump in 2020?
I think if we look at polling and it is quite accurate, Biden (or Kamala) will lose. But if it’s wrong by even a small amount, even the margin of error, then he may be able to hold on by a thread.
One thing he has going for him too is the potential for all the facts regarding Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election coming out just before the election. I think that will turn some heads and potentially change some minds, despite voters’ concerns about Biden or Harris.
It's possible, but I'm not convinced that's what is going on here. Pollsters do seem to have worked hard to fix their errors from 2016 and 2020. Obviously, polls can always be wrong, but they are still the best real-time tool we have for gauging the public's attitudes at any point in time.
Also, I am skeptical that there's much about Trump's post-2020 antics that the public hasn't already heard and that would change the race that late in the game.
Yeah, I am just wondering if the polls now are more accurate, and thus the race is as close as they suggest. Because if the polls are still underestimating Trump, then they suggest he’ll win in a landslide.
To pick up on your last point, if it public attitudes toward Trump are already too baked in and having Harris more vigorously go after him if she were the nominee won’t make much difference, then I don’t think the argument is as strong to ditch Biden.
The risk will be Biden further weakening himself, of course; but if he doesn’t do that, then I think Dems sticking with him is stronger.
Unfortunately, I think a lot of voters see Harris as more extreme and dangerous. It’s like you said before: she probably has a lower floor but a higher ceiling.
I think either they stick with Biden or Biden endorses Harris without any competition and finishes his term. That way they hew as close to the incumbency advantage and keep the transition as smooth as possible. I think history shows intraparty fighting is ultimately destructive.
Yeah, intraparty fights haven't historically boded well for the parties having them. But I also think we're in uncharted territory, given the entrenched unpopularity of the incumbent. Normally, I eschew calls for drastic measures, especially if they're made from a place of emotion. But not fundamentally changing course in the face of numerous warning signs could also ultimately be seen as the more foolish move.
For sure. It’s a very difficult predicament they’re in. I’d say is about a 50/50 prospect of greater success either way. Both choices have risks that we will potentially be able to look back on and say, “the data and the warning signs were there.”
All we can do is hope for the best.
Democrats should be thinking carefully about JRB in '24 and who they will run against a "post-Trump" GOP in '28 and beyond. Now is not the time to be gaslighting people into supporting someone older than their grandparents for one of the most demanding jobs in the world. Losing credibility is a hard thing to regain.
Is there some sort of quality or behavior you think Trump will exhibit or a VP he will choose that would make you vote for him?