Independents Will Determine Success or Failure for Trump

How are these unaligned voters assessing the early days of his second administration?

In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden won strict independent voters—those with no partisan identification or party leaning—by a 15-point margin, 52 percent to 37 percent, according to AP VoteCast data. In 2024, Kamala Harris won these voters by only a six-point margin, 48 percent to 42 percent—a nine-point net improvement for Trump from his defeat to Biden four years earlier. The pattern is roughly the same if you look at the larger pool of independents which includes partisan leaners: Trump improved from an eight-point deficit in 2020 with independents to only a three-point deficit in 2024.

Since partisan Democrats and Republicans vote virtually in lockstep with their respective parties, these independent voters have emerged as the most important bloc determining Trump’s electoral and governing success. Strict independents constitute about five to six percent of the overall electorate while the wider pool of independents (including leaners) makes up about one-third of all voters.

When he performs poorly with independents, he loses. When he performs well, he wins.

Trump no longer has to worry about the electoral implications of the independent vote but it does impact his governing agenda and his party’s ability to convince these voters to support the GOP in future congressional and presidential races.

Voters generally evaluate presidential actions and outcomes over a longer period than news organizations and social media platforms operate on these days. This is particularly true for independent voters who are far less likely than hard partisans to pay attention to the ins-and-outs of daily governing and instead examine the big picture and their own personal standing on the economy (and other issues) over several months or years.

Still, it’s worth tracking over time how these voters evaluate their leaders, especially during the whirlwind first weeks of a new presidential administration when many policy and personnel changes occur in rapid succession.

On this front, how is Trump doing so far with independents?

Looking at recent data from The Economist/YouGov from early February that breaks out results for both strict independents and independents with leaners, President Trump currently receives more negative ratings than positive ones across three key indicators: presidential job approval, personal favorability, and direction of the country.

---

---

As the table above highlights, pluralities of both categories of independents disapprove of the job Trump is doing so far as president by slight margins and more independents view him unfavorably than favorably in a personal sense. By much wider margins, half or more of both types of independents also feel the country is “off of on the wrong track” under Trump compared to only one fifth to about one quarter of these voters who feel things are “generally going in the right direction.”

Examining Trump’s job approval in specific policy areas below, the president receives more approval than disapproval from strict independents only on two issues: immigration (44 percent approve; 36 percent disapprove) and crime (38 percent approve; 27 percent disapprove). Independents are more evenly divided on other important issues including jobs and the economy and inflation/prices with 35 percent to 42 percent expressing no opinion of his job performance on most issues beyond immigration.

---

---

In terms of some of the more notable executive orders and other policy proposals the Trump administration has pursued or floated, strict independents seem mostly unimpressed with the exception of one hot button issue. Most independents (53 percent) support Trump’s executive order on single-sex facilities that requires “transgender people to use the bathrooms that match their sex assigned at birth, rather than their gender identity.” On several other issues, independents remain unsure of whether they support Trump’s proposals or not with pluralities of independents opposing his ideas to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, firing FBI agents who investigated the January 6 riot at the Capitol, renaming the Gulf of Mexico, and dissolving the Department of Education.

---

---

All in all, these findings suggest that Trump still has a lot of work to do in securing the support of independent voters on the issues that matter most to them—particularly on the economy and inflation. Independents so far strongly back his immigration and transgender policy changes—and presumably other related executive orders that were not tested in this research—but they are less enamored with the cultural and partisan obsessions of the president and his base.

The first big test of the Trump agenda with independents is coming up quickly with the proposed tax and spending plans that will be voted on in one or two congressional reconciliation packages. Independents are a skeptical lot and will want to see tangible improvements in their personal economic standing and that of the nation overall.

Should Trump and the GOP deliver on these economic matters in the eyes of most independents, they will enjoy a much stronger overall political standing ahead of midterms that will determine party control of Congress for Trump’s final two years in office. If not, expect the return of divided government in due time.