'College educated' today doesn't actually mean truly educated. That's clear to me, a person with a post graduate degree, after putting three children through expensive colleges and assisting my grandchildren currently in college. Few exit school with familiarity in the classical liberal arts. I believe it is demonstrably best and more accurate to describe the dichotomy of voters by the work they do: paper pushers and bureaucrats as opposed to doers and fixers. Note how the tone changes with the words used. That democrats don't see the bias in their descriptive blinds them from seeing that most empty headed bureaucrats and collectivized corporatists went to college rather than doing the hard work of entering business or the work force. Somehow they see that as a virtue, whether they learned anything of lasting value in college. They are a different kind of follower subject to the Left's propaganda, but a follower nevertheless.
So far, Trump in the latest NYT is up to 50% with Hispanics; Baris has Trump GAINING ground with college educated. Good example? AZ under Charlie Kirk registered hundreds of ASU students as Rs yesterday. (BTW, the Maricopa Co. GOP NET margin is now over 165,000 (2020 margin for the whole state was only 130,000, so AZ will be +400,000 and out of reach, no matter who the college educated vote for. Baris's poll yesterday---not out yet---has Trump WINNING Clark Co. NV by 2. So NV is out for Democrats. The fact that Moreno in OH and McCormick in PA have shot up (Moreno leads, McC is tied) shows that, in fact, the Trump gains in those states are real. OH will come in around Trump +10.
This is just scuttlebutt, word on the street, but it appears Harris has all but packed it in for PA, that the Trump lead (given his consistent UNDERpolling) is likely over 3. We have Trump winning PA by over 100,000, NV by 30,000, AZ by 4-5 points, and NC by about the same margin. NH is a dead tie in our calculus, WI Trump by 40,000, MI a very slight Trump win unless there are Wayne Co. shenanigans. But the CONTINUED early vote enthusiasm gap in VA should be very, very worrisome for Democrats. If that proves true, ME, NH, and other states would also be in the Trump column.
Here is something I see related to the education differences. Highly educated people are more likely to trust the system, and the elites who run it, because they benefit from the system. They also like Woke ideology because it makes them feel virtuous, in spite of their corporate jobs working for the Man. In Greenwich CT, where I go often, there were tons of Black Lives Matter signs because people working for Goldman Sachs and private equity firms like to believe that they are actually saving the world somehow.
Meanwhile, the working class voters know that the system is rigged against them and that the people in power do not have their best interests at heart. Trump speaks to this suspicion and to this anti-elite sentiment.
As a college-educated voter, I will forever wonder if I went to the wrong college. 🤔 I will always vote for the middle-class because their values matter more to me. And, the 1st Amendment is needed by these people because they are easily ignored. That is the most important issue in my list.
It's hard to say. Trump has been a horrible campaigner, plus he is getting old, and seemingly is less effective in blue wall states than Biden was, but as you say very close.
Personally, for me, hard choice. As a pro working class Democrat, it's real hard to pull the lever for either. My kids now go to highly selective colleges studying STEM, my income is far into the middle class. Yet Harris is obviously anti working class, and those policies coming out of Vance and Oren Cass are positive, and then there's Ukraine and Putin.
Have recently seen a graph, courtesy of Real Clear Politics, that shows the Republican Party with a 3 point national advantage in party favoritism or lean. If this is true, Gallup has a good record on this, at least going back to 1992, it would be a landslide for Trump and the Republicans.
Maybe the more important question is not how Trump wins, but why?
No administration has ever catered more, to the already wealthy than Biden /Harris. From $7500 checks, for people buying $80K luxury EVs, earning 3X US median family income, to bailing out Silicon Valley Billionaires, too important to operate under FDIC limits. Biden and Harris, literally, never stopped delivering for the wealthy.
Kamala and Biden handed out trillions, in unnecessary Covid business payments and dubious Green schemes, overwhelmingly, founded by Dem donors. Who could overlook the obsession with forgiving the student loan debt of MDs, JDs and STEM PHDs, earning $250K as married 26 year old professionals, on their way to $500K middle age paydays, or more.
While America's best educated and best compensated, hauled in money, hand over fist, compliments of Biden, Harris, the bottom 3 quintiles of US earners, have faced their roughest years in a 1/2 century. Not generally keyboard warriors, Covid closed their kid's schools, but still required them, to go to work. The checks Biden mailed, went quickly, while their parents died alone in nursing homes.
For them, there was no French Laundry dinners, hair salons opened, to color important grey roots, private jets to visit ailing parents, or drug fueled orgies in high end hotels. Just their kids falling ever more behind, while they spent 12-18 months, locked in small apartments and homes, constantly checking their bank balances and self medicating, if they could afford it.
Now, post Covid, gas is up 40%, electricity costs, 30% and groceries up 20%-35%. Insurance and housing are thru the roof, aggravated even more, by 10 million unvetted migrants, swimming in government aid. They are also seeking low skilled jobs and low cost homes. US public schools have never performed so poorly. Crime now regularly appears in areas where it was previously unknown, as Dems lecture voters, the lawlessness, is a figment of their imaginations.
It is hard not to notice, the women raped and/or murdered, the children molested or killed in migrant caused auto accidents, by a few bad apple, new arrivals, are never upper middle class residents. When children are raped by migrants , even in Nantucket, they are the kids of the help, not the millionaire residents. Perhaps that is why Dems cheer 10 million, unvetted new arrivals, while lower and middle classes beg for a return to orderly, limited immigration.
This list could go on and on. As the markets hit new highs, we have never been so economically divided, facing economic gaps that surpass many Latin America countries, with no answer in sight.
If Trump is elected, how it will happen, is anyone's guess, but most lower and middle earners, will know why.
Thank you Ronda. My mom was never the same after her nursing home - belatedly and then only at the insistence of families - finally opened to visitors. I stood in a foot of snow outside her window trying to talk to her through the phone, I cry now just thinking about it.
Every election cycle brings out the pollsters who think their polls are the most accurate and someone pays a bundle of money to fund them. But in then end how many polls have successfully picked a winner? Seems at the end there are only two or three that really get it right. So why do news organizations spend so much time touting certain polls over others? Maybe to try to influence a particular sub-set of voters?
Collectively, polls do show trends. Getting the numbers exactly right on voting day is more luck than predictive ability. They are better at predicting percentages of the national vote, the electoral college is like trying to predict 8 or 10 more elections exactly right.
Fixed it for you…“college educated voters” = children who have been through the educational indoctrination factories.
'College educated' today doesn't actually mean truly educated. That's clear to me, a person with a post graduate degree, after putting three children through expensive colleges and assisting my grandchildren currently in college. Few exit school with familiarity in the classical liberal arts. I believe it is demonstrably best and more accurate to describe the dichotomy of voters by the work they do: paper pushers and bureaucrats as opposed to doers and fixers. Note how the tone changes with the words used. That democrats don't see the bias in their descriptive blinds them from seeing that most empty headed bureaucrats and collectivized corporatists went to college rather than doing the hard work of entering business or the work force. Somehow they see that as a virtue, whether they learned anything of lasting value in college. They are a different kind of follower subject to the Left's propaganda, but a follower nevertheless.
So far, Trump in the latest NYT is up to 50% with Hispanics; Baris has Trump GAINING ground with college educated. Good example? AZ under Charlie Kirk registered hundreds of ASU students as Rs yesterday. (BTW, the Maricopa Co. GOP NET margin is now over 165,000 (2020 margin for the whole state was only 130,000, so AZ will be +400,000 and out of reach, no matter who the college educated vote for. Baris's poll yesterday---not out yet---has Trump WINNING Clark Co. NV by 2. So NV is out for Democrats. The fact that Moreno in OH and McCormick in PA have shot up (Moreno leads, McC is tied) shows that, in fact, the Trump gains in those states are real. OH will come in around Trump +10.
This is just scuttlebutt, word on the street, but it appears Harris has all but packed it in for PA, that the Trump lead (given his consistent UNDERpolling) is likely over 3. We have Trump winning PA by over 100,000, NV by 30,000, AZ by 4-5 points, and NC by about the same margin. NH is a dead tie in our calculus, WI Trump by 40,000, MI a very slight Trump win unless there are Wayne Co. shenanigans. But the CONTINUED early vote enthusiasm gap in VA should be very, very worrisome for Democrats. If that proves true, ME, NH, and other states would also be in the Trump column.
Here is something I see related to the education differences. Highly educated people are more likely to trust the system, and the elites who run it, because they benefit from the system. They also like Woke ideology because it makes them feel virtuous, in spite of their corporate jobs working for the Man. In Greenwich CT, where I go often, there were tons of Black Lives Matter signs because people working for Goldman Sachs and private equity firms like to believe that they are actually saving the world somehow.
Meanwhile, the working class voters know that the system is rigged against them and that the people in power do not have their best interests at heart. Trump speaks to this suspicion and to this anti-elite sentiment.
As a college-educated voter, I will forever wonder if I went to the wrong college. 🤔 I will always vote for the middle-class because their values matter more to me. And, the 1st Amendment is needed by these people because they are easily ignored. That is the most important issue in my list.
Polymarket this morning 50/49 Harris.
It's hard to say. Trump has been a horrible campaigner, plus he is getting old, and seemingly is less effective in blue wall states than Biden was, but as you say very close.
Personally, for me, hard choice. As a pro working class Democrat, it's real hard to pull the lever for either. My kids now go to highly selective colleges studying STEM, my income is far into the middle class. Yet Harris is obviously anti working class, and those policies coming out of Vance and Oren Cass are positive, and then there's Ukraine and Putin.
Hard to say.
Have recently seen a graph, courtesy of Real Clear Politics, that shows the Republican Party with a 3 point national advantage in party favoritism or lean. If this is true, Gallup has a good record on this, at least going back to 1992, it would be a landslide for Trump and the Republicans.
Maybe the more important question is not how Trump wins, but why?
No administration has ever catered more, to the already wealthy than Biden /Harris. From $7500 checks, for people buying $80K luxury EVs, earning 3X US median family income, to bailing out Silicon Valley Billionaires, too important to operate under FDIC limits. Biden and Harris, literally, never stopped delivering for the wealthy.
Kamala and Biden handed out trillions, in unnecessary Covid business payments and dubious Green schemes, overwhelmingly, founded by Dem donors. Who could overlook the obsession with forgiving the student loan debt of MDs, JDs and STEM PHDs, earning $250K as married 26 year old professionals, on their way to $500K middle age paydays, or more.
While America's best educated and best compensated, hauled in money, hand over fist, compliments of Biden, Harris, the bottom 3 quintiles of US earners, have faced their roughest years in a 1/2 century. Not generally keyboard warriors, Covid closed their kid's schools, but still required them, to go to work. The checks Biden mailed, went quickly, while their parents died alone in nursing homes.
For them, there was no French Laundry dinners, hair salons opened, to color important grey roots, private jets to visit ailing parents, or drug fueled orgies in high end hotels. Just their kids falling ever more behind, while they spent 12-18 months, locked in small apartments and homes, constantly checking their bank balances and self medicating, if they could afford it.
Now, post Covid, gas is up 40%, electricity costs, 30% and groceries up 20%-35%. Insurance and housing are thru the roof, aggravated even more, by 10 million unvetted migrants, swimming in government aid. They are also seeking low skilled jobs and low cost homes. US public schools have never performed so poorly. Crime now regularly appears in areas where it was previously unknown, as Dems lecture voters, the lawlessness, is a figment of their imaginations.
It is hard not to notice, the women raped and/or murdered, the children molested or killed in migrant caused auto accidents, by a few bad apple, new arrivals, are never upper middle class residents. When children are raped by migrants , even in Nantucket, they are the kids of the help, not the millionaire residents. Perhaps that is why Dems cheer 10 million, unvetted new arrivals, while lower and middle classes beg for a return to orderly, limited immigration.
This list could go on and on. As the markets hit new highs, we have never been so economically divided, facing economic gaps that surpass many Latin America countries, with no answer in sight.
If Trump is elected, how it will happen, is anyone's guess, but most lower and middle earners, will know why.
Thank you Ronda. My mom was never the same after her nursing home - belatedly and then only at the insistence of families - finally opened to visitors. I stood in a foot of snow outside her window trying to talk to her through the phone, I cry now just thinking about it.
Every election cycle brings out the pollsters who think their polls are the most accurate and someone pays a bundle of money to fund them. But in then end how many polls have successfully picked a winner? Seems at the end there are only two or three that really get it right. So why do news organizations spend so much time touting certain polls over others? Maybe to try to influence a particular sub-set of voters?
Collectively, polls do show trends. Getting the numbers exactly right on voting day is more luck than predictive ability. They are better at predicting percentages of the national vote, the electoral college is like trying to predict 8 or 10 more elections exactly right.