How the Attempt on Trump’s Life Could Fundamentally Alter the Presidential Race—or Not
The contest has been remarkably stable up to now. Is that about to change?
As the country reels from the near-assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend, discussion among pundits and analysts has invariably turned to the potential political effects of the attack—specifically, whether it will make Trump even stronger than before and all but assure his victory in November.
There isn’t much polling data to work with yet, but a horde of voices has wasted no time in claiming that the race is essentially over. Writer Andrew Sullivan, a longtime Trump critic, fatalistically posted, “The landslide will be even bigger now.” Axios reported that some Democratic members of Congress have resigned themselves to the idea that Trump is now guaranteed a second term. Some Republicans seem to agree.
Rare, destabilizing events can shock the conscience and sometimes even create a sense of solidarity among a citizenry, so conventional wisdom might suggest that when a president survives an attempt on his life, he’s likely to gain some support (or, at least, sympathy) from the public.1 These kinds of incidents can also create a martyr out of the target and serve to unify his supporters behind him (even if it’s unclear that an attack was politically motivated).
In this case, Trump was already in a favorable position before the shooting, running consistently ahead of Biden in the polls—something he never once did in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, Biden has been grappling the fact that a large majority of his party doesn’t want him to be their nominee. So while Trump is preparing for an emotional coronation this week and hoping to receive a fresh polling bounce, Democrats still aren’t even sure who will be leading their ticket.
All this would seem to work in the former president’s political favor. However, while the story of Trump’s inevitability may sound like compelling cable news fodder, it is by no means a given. In fact, there are plenty of reasons to believe the events of the past weekend might not significantly change much about the race.
In our country’s short history, there have been 20 assassination attempts against presidents or presidential aspirants, six of which succeeded (including four against sitting presidents). Three of the more serious attempts took place during the modern polling era, and it’s unclear that they had any substantial impact on the incumbent president’s political fortunes:
In November 1950, law enforcement officials disrupted a plot to kill President Harry Truman. Around that time, Truman’s approval sat at 39 percent. Far from receiving a boost in public support in the weeks that followed, his approval further declined and remained under that 39 percent mark through the end of his term. If he had been eligible for re-election, he would have entered the campaign an extremely weak candidate.
In September 1974, two different women tried (and failed) to shoot President Gerald Ford.2 Though it’s possible that Ford might have gained sympathy from the public under different circumstances, that same month he issued a widely unpopular pardon of former President Richard Nixon. Between the beginning of the month and the end, Ford’s approval dropped from 66 percent to 50 percent—and continued falling in subsequent months. The pardon appeared to offset any sympathy Americans might have had for Ford after the botched efforts to kill him, and he went on to lose re-election to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
In March 1981, just a few months into his first term, President Ronald Reagan was shot and grievously wounded by John Hinckley, Jr. Unlike Truman and Ford, Reagan did see a poll bounce over the next two months, going from 60 percent to 68 percent, but it had been completely erased by June. His approval continued to crater in the months that followed, hitting a low of 35 percent in the summer of 1983. However, Reagan eventually worked his way out of that hole and secured re-election in a landslide.
Teddy Roosevelt was also shot on the campaign trail just weeks before the 1912 election and still lost. So, to the extent that we can glean any insight from all that, it’s pretty clear that the public’s support for these presidents did not permanently change for the better—if they changed all—following the assassination attempts. While Reagan did go on to win a second term, his victory was attributed less to the attack on him and more to the booming economy.
Another reason why the attempt on Trump’s life might not ultimately change much is that partisan polarization in America has grown significantly worse over the last couple of decades. People’s politics have become much more entrenched, meaning landslide wins are also far less common than they once were. Since 2000, the national popular vote margin in all but one3 presidential election has been fewer than five points. Moreover, the losing candidate in those contests never earned less than 45 percent of the national popular vote—a sign that candidates in the modern era enjoy a much higher floor and can expect to bank a greater share of the vote than candidates in past cycles.
This polarization has also been reflected in the 2024 election’s remarkably stable polling. President Biden’s approval rating has basically remained between 38 percent and 43 percent since November 2021, with occasional dips and recoveries. Trump’s favorability has been stuck in that same range since he left office in January 2021. The head-to-head polling since March of this year has mostly shown Trump leading Biden nationally by one or two points. And high shares of Biden and Trump voters say they have made up their mind about who they will vote for in November.
We have also seen that major events that might have once upended presidential campaigns have not done so in the current race. Trump’s criminal conviction in New York, which almost certainly would have disqualified him in years past, barely registered in the polls. And while Biden did appear to lose some ground after last month’s debate, it wasn’t much. An assassination attempt is of course a different beast, but it still remains to be seen whether it’s enough to meaningfully shake up the race.
One thing that could determine the shooting’s political impact is how Trump himself decides to handle it. He is reportedly rewriting his convention speech to emphasize the need for unity rather than attack Biden. Such a message at a precarious time in the nation’s history may resonate with many people. However, Trump has famously tried to make similar pivots in the past, only to quickly backpedal. And his choice for vice president, J. D. Vance, in some ways belies this effort, for in the immediate aftermath of the shooting Vance pinned the blame squarely on Biden. So, if Trump calls for unity, will it resonate with those who hear it? Or will it be seen as a cynical ploy to capitalize on the outpouring of sympathy he has received by claiming that everyone is behind him?
It remains to be seen how the public will react to all this. Given the incredibly static nature of the race, the polls may not change much at all. No matter what happens, though, the election will still very likely come down to a few hundred thousand votes across a handful of states once again. Yes, Trump might look like the luckiest guy in politics right now—and it’s possible the events of this week will make Biden’s uphill battle even harder in this final stretch—but no one should be blowing the final whistle just yet.4
You might think of it like a variation of the “rally-around-the-flag” effect.
Interestingly, the incidents were just weeks apart, and both took place in California, though there’s no evidence they were related.
Barack Obama won the national popular vote over John McCain by 7.2 points in 2008.
Anyone remember 2016?
This reads with too much hope and wish casting. I can feel it from behind the page. Uncomfortable.
One effect this event will have on the election is that now Trump's supporters will be willing to crawl through razor wire and over acres of broken glass to vote for him.
Not sure whether the people who oppose him will be similarly galvanized. And the people who found him distasteful previously may find the intensity of their dislike has faded somewhat.