Good analysis. I have long wanted a populist fusion movement and have also concluded it won't happen for these reasons. I spend more time than you watching or at least commenting European politics. It is not a pretty picture. From the Urals to the Atlantic and from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, it is an authoritarian mess. The attempts to imprison or kill Trump failed but no so with opposition candidates in Russia, Romania Turkey, and France. Attacks on lesser party figures are common in Germany and Poland. Nullification of elections is quite common across the continent as well including the Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria and Italy. The UK is perhaps the most vicious of all in its attacks on non-political people. Since geopolitics dictates that most of these countries are "allies " it is hard to see much value in supporting them
Not only are they shirkers having outsourced their security to the US to better build their welfare states but they no longer have common values other than seen through the lens of partisanship.
Both parties face hurdles seeking economic nationalism, but the Rep issue has an expiration date. Despite Trump's gleeful trolling, he will not seek a 3rd term. In any event, the man is approaching 80 years of age. Trump will not be, personally, effecting US policy, for long, after this term ends.
Dems have a much higher hurdle. They not only lack a leader. Party dogma is in direct contradiction to economic nationalism. In the 4 years Biden held the WH, Dems were nearly exclusively devoted to open borders and Climate spending. The third priority, student loan debt forgiveness, was a gift to most educated and highest compensated Americans, those with graduate degrees.
Dems hope to memory hole the open border, in the same way Covid, disappeared from history.
That might be wishful thinking. The border is closed, but 10 million mostly impoverished and sparsely educated people, most without language skills, remain. The US was not prepared for their arrival. We lack enough housing, healthcare professionals and appropriate teachers.
And now Trump has ended their federal welfare, while DOGE slays the NGOs that also provide shelter, food, clothing and healthcare. It will take a bit of time, but a year or so from now, the fallout is going to be ugly, and difficult to hide. Evicted from subsidized housing, earning minimal wages, no matter how hard they toil, how are these people going to afford food and shelter, let alone healthcare?
Climate, for all but Progressives, seems to have completed its' 15 minutes of fame. Green consequences have come to Europe, including a German economy in its' 3rd year of contraction, thanks to the miracle of renewable energy. Germany has long been the EU's rich uncle , coming to the financial rescue, when necessary. Neither it, nor likely the EU, will thrive long, without humming German factories. And German factories will never hum again, without cheap and abundant energy.
Trump may well implode, although less than 90 days in, a political obit, might be a bit premature. What is the line? Never bet against a man that morphed a mug shot into a Presidential portrait? Even if he does, how does that solve Dem policy problems?
"Both parties face hurdles seeking economic nationalism, but the Rep issue has an expiration date. Despite Trump's gleeful trolling, he will not seek a 3rd term. In any event, the man is approaching 80 years of age. Trump will not be, personally, effecting US policy, for long, after this term ends."
The effects of his trade war will actually affect U.S. policy for a long, long time--well after his departure. In hindsight, it will likely be seen as the starting point that ended the dollar's reserve currency status, and, even more importantly, the point at which the center of global power moved from the West into Asia.
Western nations will never trust the U.S. again--meanwhile, Eurasian nations will be brought together as common victims of an American-led trade war. China will emerge the big victor here--and they know this. China has been waiting, and planning, for the U.S. to do something like this for nearly a century. It is prepared for the incoming escalation in a way America is not--not only by way of being more culturally and economically unified than America, but by way of having key resources that can help them survive a prolonged trade war, like public banks and state-owned enterprises. Unless he has the sense to de-escalate before it begins, this may be Trump's biggest legacy--the trade war he lost, that closed the American century and kickstarted the Eurasian century.
I've never read such a granular analysis seeming to differentiate between so many political factions in America. I had no clue how this plethora could be so sliced and diced before. Kudos. The Press is hopelessly fixated on adversarial conflicting grievance based politics each story editorialized to feature their flavor of journalistic spin or bias or whatever, clamoring and competing for brand visibility or some recognition.
But, I believe what seems to be missing, is appropriate reflection on how American government was designed to originally function. Frankly, I questioned subscribing because of the name of the substack being "liberal patriot", but I am so far with you.
So far as my thinking is taking me, the analysis is representative of unwise constitutional changes and the proliferation of unwise liberal thought the past 60 years. All manifested by President Woodrow Wilson's arrogant academic obsession to see his "living document" theory applied to the US Constitution which earned him the title Grandfather of Liberalism, which is now called Progressivism. And we are living the consequences.
Of the options presented, President Donald Trump is the only President I've seen who understands how much the pendulum must be moved to re-balance America's Constitutional Republic. America's grandeur has always seemed to rest on a majority of America being representative of Middle Class American traditional values, and their generosity which was once weaved throughout America's cultural fabric. It is a characteristic of America that has sorely declined due to government programs taking the place of American generosity becoming hidden within a bureaucratic labyrinth rife for corruption. The notion of government being the Worlds' Charity provider, certainly contradicts the words of Davey Crockett on that object: Its Not There's To Give!
I don’t think economic nationalism has been tried yet, because neither party really wanted to do more than tinker around the edges, a form of lip service really. As a result of decades long drift the US is now in a crisis that was finally precipitated by the very many bad things that the Democrats did that overwhelmed the good gradual progress (CHIPS Act etc.) they made. The wise gradualist approach cannot deliver results fast enough at this point; it is Caesarism or collapse. We are in revolutionary times. The outcome is unpredictable.
Neoliberalism is the free flow of goods, labor, and money across international borders. Right? Unregulated capitalism.
The Democratic Party was only partially committed to ending neoliberalism. Obama's failed trade deal was the last gasp and lead to giving the president more power over trade. The Biden admin threw open our borders for more quasi legal immigration than we'd ever experienced, very neoliberal.
Elizabeth Warren slipped some small bits of anti monopoly and tighter regulation in on the enforcement side, and that's the only restrictions I noticed from the Biden folks, who weren't really Biden but rather his handlers. The CHIPs act and the IRA did nothing. Waste of money. We don't make computer chips yet. Maybe with more time they will pan out.
Sanders and AOC rail about oligarchs but nothing is done. Some handouts in the form of Child Care lift a very few kids out of poverty. Nothing on wages. No health care. No jobs. No taxes for rich folk.
Republicans still spew baloney about taxes and when I talk to most people they don't even know what taxes they do pay, they just want to pay less. My effective rate was 6.8% which is crazy. If I could afford to double my taxes there are a huge number of people who could do the same.
Instead of using congress and making any changes permanent Trump used the power given the president on tariffs to smash things up. I've lost enough in the market to pay both kids board and tuition three times over. I'm not liking it either. The markets were this poor mans way to earn what I couldn't through labor.
Building our manufacturing will take years. I'm ok with Trump busting things up but not so happy at the speed or seeming thoughtlessness. It's Wed AM, the Chinese currency hasn't really taken that big of a beating, all the Asian indices are down just like ours.
Do you really think the problem is that the government isn't collecting enough revenue? I could 'afford' to pay more as well, but I'd rather spend MY money on private schools for the kids than sending it off to D.C. to be p*ssed away.
We spend more on interest payments than our entire defence budget. When they pay off most of the debt I'll know we are serious, until then we are actually borrowing money for tax cuts.
The difference between Biden's agenda and Trump's is that Biden's was enacted through legislation, in some case bi-partisan. Trump's policies are implemented by executive order without much public debate about the consequences.
This is truly a lot of words salad up there those some of it probably is true in one way or another, but what divides this country is totally cultural. Cultural being very very broadly defined. Let me make it clear that the one economic issue that is certainly also cultural. Is this whole concept of income distribution or should I say redistribution?
The income has been redistributed for years, it all ended up on top. Trump's support for Main Street over Wall Street was his way of seeking to reverse things slightly. Trump and Sanders aren't always that far apart.
Trump has lost the trust and patience of financial markets around the world. It is likely that the mistrust will linger for years and result in disinvestment in United States manufacturing.
I will have no truck with this nonsense moral-equivalence. Trump winning this election was no more a validation of Nationalist Conservatism than Bush winning in 2004 was as a validation of the Neocon worldview.
Biden was a throwback to a time of greater political consensus, he was elected *because* he was a throwback, and his Admin. governed responsibly if not flawlessly. The country badly needed a comprehensive policy for infrastructure, and incorporating environmental concerns into the infrastructure plans was not only well-motivated on the merits, it required *leadership* because so many in the electorate and in the opposition party was engaged in blinkered opposition to it. Biden demonstrated his ability to retreat from his comprehensive plan and settle for a truncated version of the legislation, because unlike Republicans in this century he and the Democrats are capable of *compromise.*
I subscribed to this newsletter because I believe it's vital for the Democrats to seize back the mantle of moral leadership of our party from the Left's Identity-warriors, but not for a *minute* should we countenance Trump's Cult and their vision for America.
I don't think voters are going to return to an ideology that brought back socially acceptable sadism and so privileged the professional managerial class and it's sadistic class warfare that life expectancy for the working class began to fall.
I don't even think "Neoliberalism" exists. It is another vague, crappy, non-sequitur like "woke" that has become popular through repetition. "Any man who cheats at golf will cheat at anything" - Rick Reilly.
Neoliberalism won, already in the 1980s, because both parties’ need to appease campaign donors kept challenges to neoliberalism out of the conversation.
It's a myth btw that leftwing populism exists. People in the Biden WH boasted to reporters they used illegal unskilled immigration to contain inflation. It doesn't matter how much Biden helped unions when he absolutely crushed the basis of their economic power.
I really do marvel at so many, with such definitive takes, including the author, regarding such a young presidency. It's as if there is zero acknowledgement of the reality of how tax payers have been done so wrong for so long when it comes to Federal spending. This is the establishment (97% D's, 75% R's, in my estimate)! Their primary purpose is to keep the gravy train going, I do not think this is over simplification (especially, when all it takes to be part of the establishment is to simply not really try to do the right thing, just give it lip service).
I know it's not hip to talk about what DOGE is uncovering, but it's absolutely an abomination (there is literally corruption everywhere, we look down on so called third world countries and their corruption, Ha!!, we are the masters!, and the lifestyle our American society pushes lends itself to complacency, and focus on self, perfect for the establishment).
I believe there was divine intervention in not allowing Trump to serve consecutive terms, because this way is going to be so much more effective and permanent. Scoff, if you like, I'll still be here a year, 2 years, etc from now, and we'll compare notes (for goodness sakes, just look at what happened today, after this was published, did you see that coming with as much confidence that you declare Trump has already lost it, is doomed, doesn't know what he's doing, etc.?)
I'm very hopeful, for the first time in my lifetime, I have a President with not only the will, but now the needed experience to kill, or at least greatly reduce the establishment. And I strongly suspect, that this much needed unorthodox approach to the Federal government (there could be no other way, with so many, so vested in the current corrupt model), actually striving for accountability and responsible spending while righting the ship regarding the very important social issues will maintain and grow a majority.
Rejoice always, pray unceasingly, and in everything give thanks! God bless
"for goodness sakes, just look at what happened today, after this was published, did you see that coming with as much confidence that you declare Trump has already lost it, is doomed, doesn't know what he's doing, etc.?
See, this is why we call it a cult, William.
Trump just
-tanked global markets, endangering people's livelihoods around the world
-let those markets mildly recover
-gained nothing from it
...and you are here saying this was somehow divinely inspired good work.
Surely you understand that there is something wrong with a woman who, after her husband beats her to within an inch of her life, goes around telling everyone that the fact he didn't kill her demonstrates his genius and grace, and is a sign of God's goodness and his divine plan?
I wonder if, after we lose this coming trade war with China, (should Trump truly attempt to pursue it) and emerge all alone on the world stage, as a helpless subordinate to an ascendant Asia, with no allies that trust us, dealing with the consequences of losing the dollar's exorbitant privilege...if, William, it will be enough to get you to leave the death cult of Trump idolatry, and realize that, if there is truly a Divine providence at work, it would surely work in the interest of all of His flock, and would not imperil the fortunes of hard-working folk in the U.S. and the world over in return for nothing, save for the flattering of one man's ego.
Article about the DNC proposal to develop a People's Cabinet along the lines of the UK shadow Cabinet. Good idea and you should exert effort to get individuals of your persuasion included.
Good analysis. I have long wanted a populist fusion movement and have also concluded it won't happen for these reasons. I spend more time than you watching or at least commenting European politics. It is not a pretty picture. From the Urals to the Atlantic and from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, it is an authoritarian mess. The attempts to imprison or kill Trump failed but no so with opposition candidates in Russia, Romania Turkey, and France. Attacks on lesser party figures are common in Germany and Poland. Nullification of elections is quite common across the continent as well including the Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria and Italy. The UK is perhaps the most vicious of all in its attacks on non-political people. Since geopolitics dictates that most of these countries are "allies " it is hard to see much value in supporting them
Not only are they shirkers having outsourced their security to the US to better build their welfare states but they no longer have common values other than seen through the lens of partisanship.
Both parties face hurdles seeking economic nationalism, but the Rep issue has an expiration date. Despite Trump's gleeful trolling, he will not seek a 3rd term. In any event, the man is approaching 80 years of age. Trump will not be, personally, effecting US policy, for long, after this term ends.
Dems have a much higher hurdle. They not only lack a leader. Party dogma is in direct contradiction to economic nationalism. In the 4 years Biden held the WH, Dems were nearly exclusively devoted to open borders and Climate spending. The third priority, student loan debt forgiveness, was a gift to most educated and highest compensated Americans, those with graduate degrees.
Dems hope to memory hole the open border, in the same way Covid, disappeared from history.
That might be wishful thinking. The border is closed, but 10 million mostly impoverished and sparsely educated people, most without language skills, remain. The US was not prepared for their arrival. We lack enough housing, healthcare professionals and appropriate teachers.
And now Trump has ended their federal welfare, while DOGE slays the NGOs that also provide shelter, food, clothing and healthcare. It will take a bit of time, but a year or so from now, the fallout is going to be ugly, and difficult to hide. Evicted from subsidized housing, earning minimal wages, no matter how hard they toil, how are these people going to afford food and shelter, let alone healthcare?
Climate, for all but Progressives, seems to have completed its' 15 minutes of fame. Green consequences have come to Europe, including a German economy in its' 3rd year of contraction, thanks to the miracle of renewable energy. Germany has long been the EU's rich uncle , coming to the financial rescue, when necessary. Neither it, nor likely the EU, will thrive long, without humming German factories. And German factories will never hum again, without cheap and abundant energy.
Trump may well implode, although less than 90 days in, a political obit, might be a bit premature. What is the line? Never bet against a man that morphed a mug shot into a Presidential portrait? Even if he does, how does that solve Dem policy problems?
"Both parties face hurdles seeking economic nationalism, but the Rep issue has an expiration date. Despite Trump's gleeful trolling, he will not seek a 3rd term. In any event, the man is approaching 80 years of age. Trump will not be, personally, effecting US policy, for long, after this term ends."
The effects of his trade war will actually affect U.S. policy for a long, long time--well after his departure. In hindsight, it will likely be seen as the starting point that ended the dollar's reserve currency status, and, even more importantly, the point at which the center of global power moved from the West into Asia.
Western nations will never trust the U.S. again--meanwhile, Eurasian nations will be brought together as common victims of an American-led trade war. China will emerge the big victor here--and they know this. China has been waiting, and planning, for the U.S. to do something like this for nearly a century. It is prepared for the incoming escalation in a way America is not--not only by way of being more culturally and economically unified than America, but by way of having key resources that can help them survive a prolonged trade war, like public banks and state-owned enterprises. Unless he has the sense to de-escalate before it begins, this may be Trump's biggest legacy--the trade war he lost, that closed the American century and kickstarted the Eurasian century.
I've never read such a granular analysis seeming to differentiate between so many political factions in America. I had no clue how this plethora could be so sliced and diced before. Kudos. The Press is hopelessly fixated on adversarial conflicting grievance based politics each story editorialized to feature their flavor of journalistic spin or bias or whatever, clamoring and competing for brand visibility or some recognition.
But, I believe what seems to be missing, is appropriate reflection on how American government was designed to originally function. Frankly, I questioned subscribing because of the name of the substack being "liberal patriot", but I am so far with you.
So far as my thinking is taking me, the analysis is representative of unwise constitutional changes and the proliferation of unwise liberal thought the past 60 years. All manifested by President Woodrow Wilson's arrogant academic obsession to see his "living document" theory applied to the US Constitution which earned him the title Grandfather of Liberalism, which is now called Progressivism. And we are living the consequences.
Of the options presented, President Donald Trump is the only President I've seen who understands how much the pendulum must be moved to re-balance America's Constitutional Republic. America's grandeur has always seemed to rest on a majority of America being representative of Middle Class American traditional values, and their generosity which was once weaved throughout America's cultural fabric. It is a characteristic of America that has sorely declined due to government programs taking the place of American generosity becoming hidden within a bureaucratic labyrinth rife for corruption. The notion of government being the Worlds' Charity provider, certainly contradicts the words of Davey Crockett on that object: Its Not There's To Give!
I don’t think economic nationalism has been tried yet, because neither party really wanted to do more than tinker around the edges, a form of lip service really. As a result of decades long drift the US is now in a crisis that was finally precipitated by the very many bad things that the Democrats did that overwhelmed the good gradual progress (CHIPS Act etc.) they made. The wise gradualist approach cannot deliver results fast enough at this point; it is Caesarism or collapse. We are in revolutionary times. The outcome is unpredictable.
Neoliberalism is the free flow of goods, labor, and money across international borders. Right? Unregulated capitalism.
The Democratic Party was only partially committed to ending neoliberalism. Obama's failed trade deal was the last gasp and lead to giving the president more power over trade. The Biden admin threw open our borders for more quasi legal immigration than we'd ever experienced, very neoliberal.
Elizabeth Warren slipped some small bits of anti monopoly and tighter regulation in on the enforcement side, and that's the only restrictions I noticed from the Biden folks, who weren't really Biden but rather his handlers. The CHIPs act and the IRA did nothing. Waste of money. We don't make computer chips yet. Maybe with more time they will pan out.
Sanders and AOC rail about oligarchs but nothing is done. Some handouts in the form of Child Care lift a very few kids out of poverty. Nothing on wages. No health care. No jobs. No taxes for rich folk.
Republicans still spew baloney about taxes and when I talk to most people they don't even know what taxes they do pay, they just want to pay less. My effective rate was 6.8% which is crazy. If I could afford to double my taxes there are a huge number of people who could do the same.
Instead of using congress and making any changes permanent Trump used the power given the president on tariffs to smash things up. I've lost enough in the market to pay both kids board and tuition three times over. I'm not liking it either. The markets were this poor mans way to earn what I couldn't through labor.
Building our manufacturing will take years. I'm ok with Trump busting things up but not so happy at the speed or seeming thoughtlessness. It's Wed AM, the Chinese currency hasn't really taken that big of a beating, all the Asian indices are down just like ours.
What's next.
Do you really think the problem is that the government isn't collecting enough revenue? I could 'afford' to pay more as well, but I'd rather spend MY money on private schools for the kids than sending it off to D.C. to be p*ssed away.
We spend more on interest payments than our entire defence budget. When they pay off most of the debt I'll know we are serious, until then we are actually borrowing money for tax cuts.
The difference between Biden's agenda and Trump's is that Biden's was enacted through legislation, in some case bi-partisan. Trump's policies are implemented by executive order without much public debate about the consequences.
This is truly a lot of words salad up there those some of it probably is true in one way or another, but what divides this country is totally cultural. Cultural being very very broadly defined. Let me make it clear that the one economic issue that is certainly also cultural. Is this whole concept of income distribution or should I say redistribution?
The income has been redistributed for years, it all ended up on top. Trump's support for Main Street over Wall Street was his way of seeking to reverse things slightly. Trump and Sanders aren't always that far apart.
My portfolio looks pretty great right now. China is going to pay. Everyone else wants to deal. I believe it can still be done.
Trump has lost the trust and patience of financial markets around the world. It is likely that the mistrust will linger for years and result in disinvestment in United States manufacturing.
I will have no truck with this nonsense moral-equivalence. Trump winning this election was no more a validation of Nationalist Conservatism than Bush winning in 2004 was as a validation of the Neocon worldview.
Biden was a throwback to a time of greater political consensus, he was elected *because* he was a throwback, and his Admin. governed responsibly if not flawlessly. The country badly needed a comprehensive policy for infrastructure, and incorporating environmental concerns into the infrastructure plans was not only well-motivated on the merits, it required *leadership* because so many in the electorate and in the opposition party was engaged in blinkered opposition to it. Biden demonstrated his ability to retreat from his comprehensive plan and settle for a truncated version of the legislation, because unlike Republicans in this century he and the Democrats are capable of *compromise.*
I subscribed to this newsletter because I believe it's vital for the Democrats to seize back the mantle of moral leadership of our party from the Left's Identity-warriors, but not for a *minute* should we countenance Trump's Cult and their vision for America.
I don't think voters are going to return to an ideology that brought back socially acceptable sadism and so privileged the professional managerial class and it's sadistic class warfare that life expectancy for the working class began to fall.
I don't even think "Neoliberalism" exists. It is another vague, crappy, non-sequitur like "woke" that has become popular through repetition. "Any man who cheats at golf will cheat at anything" - Rick Reilly.
Neoliberalism won, already in the 1980s, because both parties’ need to appease campaign donors kept challenges to neoliberalism out of the conversation.
www.savedemocracyinamerica.org
It's a myth btw that leftwing populism exists. People in the Biden WH boasted to reporters they used illegal unskilled immigration to contain inflation. It doesn't matter how much Biden helped unions when he absolutely crushed the basis of their economic power.
I really do marvel at so many, with such definitive takes, including the author, regarding such a young presidency. It's as if there is zero acknowledgement of the reality of how tax payers have been done so wrong for so long when it comes to Federal spending. This is the establishment (97% D's, 75% R's, in my estimate)! Their primary purpose is to keep the gravy train going, I do not think this is over simplification (especially, when all it takes to be part of the establishment is to simply not really try to do the right thing, just give it lip service).
I know it's not hip to talk about what DOGE is uncovering, but it's absolutely an abomination (there is literally corruption everywhere, we look down on so called third world countries and their corruption, Ha!!, we are the masters!, and the lifestyle our American society pushes lends itself to complacency, and focus on self, perfect for the establishment).
I believe there was divine intervention in not allowing Trump to serve consecutive terms, because this way is going to be so much more effective and permanent. Scoff, if you like, I'll still be here a year, 2 years, etc from now, and we'll compare notes (for goodness sakes, just look at what happened today, after this was published, did you see that coming with as much confidence that you declare Trump has already lost it, is doomed, doesn't know what he's doing, etc.?)
I'm very hopeful, for the first time in my lifetime, I have a President with not only the will, but now the needed experience to kill, or at least greatly reduce the establishment. And I strongly suspect, that this much needed unorthodox approach to the Federal government (there could be no other way, with so many, so vested in the current corrupt model), actually striving for accountability and responsible spending while righting the ship regarding the very important social issues will maintain and grow a majority.
Rejoice always, pray unceasingly, and in everything give thanks! God bless
"for goodness sakes, just look at what happened today, after this was published, did you see that coming with as much confidence that you declare Trump has already lost it, is doomed, doesn't know what he's doing, etc.?
See, this is why we call it a cult, William.
Trump just
-tanked global markets, endangering people's livelihoods around the world
-let those markets mildly recover
-gained nothing from it
...and you are here saying this was somehow divinely inspired good work.
Surely you understand that there is something wrong with a woman who, after her husband beats her to within an inch of her life, goes around telling everyone that the fact he didn't kill her demonstrates his genius and grace, and is a sign of God's goodness and his divine plan?
I wonder if, after we lose this coming trade war with China, (should Trump truly attempt to pursue it) and emerge all alone on the world stage, as a helpless subordinate to an ascendant Asia, with no allies that trust us, dealing with the consequences of losing the dollar's exorbitant privilege...if, William, it will be enough to get you to leave the death cult of Trump idolatry, and realize that, if there is truly a Divine providence at work, it would surely work in the interest of all of His flock, and would not imperil the fortunes of hard-working folk in the U.S. and the world over in return for nothing, save for the flattering of one man's ego.
Time will tell which one of us is delusional, God bless.
Article about the DNC proposal to develop a People's Cabinet along the lines of the UK shadow Cabinet. Good idea and you should exert effort to get individuals of your persuasion included.