Hmm. Beyond optimistic. First, the early vote/ballot request has just destroyed traditional Democrat "firewalls" in NC, NV, PA, and AZ. In some ways, these elections are already locked up. The only question is that of margin. In NV for example, in 2020 Ds had an early vote advantage of 40,000 to win by 33,000 in an election rife with fraud. Now? They are basically tied, plus or minus 1400. Once the Trump "underpoll" factors in, and the advantage Trump has in pulling Ds (over Harris's inability to pull any Rs at all except Liz Cheney), Trump will win NV by about 40-60,000 votes. (When John Ralston has give up in NV, you know it's over) Pretty sure Rs took Clark Co early vote yesterday. In GA, the black vote has completely tanked. "Souls to the Polls" was a disaster. You are looking at about a 5-point drop from 2020 in black vote, BUT about a 5-point increase in the white vote. Trump will win GA by 4.5 to 5. NC is not close at all. Despite the claims the hurricane would hit the western party, they are turning out en masse. NC is looking to be Trump +4, again especially given the huge gap in increased white vote/decreased black vote. AZ has been long gone for Harris. Rs have a fluctuating 25,000-35,000 early vote lead but again in AZ many Ds will vote Trump, and very few Rs will be voting Harris. FL is going to come in as I predicted, Trump +10. And there were actually people saying FL and TX would be close. The most interesting is PA, where early on Ds were saying that a "firewall" of 200,000 net early vote advantage would do it. That was quickly moved to 400,000, then 600,000. Yesterday pollster Rich Baris put the number at 800,000. Hard to do when Rs keep gaining in every single new data drop. Trump is on target to carry PA by 150,000 votes even after shenanigans or the "Margin of Fraud." VA is now turning competitive. Harris had to move more $ there. Right now it's about a 5- point race, but as in PA, every single new vote drop has Rs slightly gaining. If this is within 2 on election day, Trump will narrowlly eke this one out too. Both MI and WI are polling Trump +1, MI with the last three state pollsters. (Baris too, as with Trafalgar). WI is about the same, most pollsters having this Trump +1. WI is much more likely to turn out a rural red wave than MI, so it's not unlikely Trump wins the state by 1.5. Significantly, Harris withdrew all advertising from Milwaukee after early ballot requests from the red rurals came in extremely high.
This election today is Trump 312 EVs and a 1 point pop vote victory. But it easily can do a Jimmy Carter and spiral into a 340 EV victory and 1.5 popular vote, because even NY and CA are showing 5-10 point rightward movement in voter registrations. There is not one chance in a million Harris wins this.
I understand this could go either way, and after we have a winner there will be tons of looking back. What I don't get is what will happen if Harris does win.
So far having a divided congress with a D presidency has allowed both parties to do not much except shovel money to their favorite corporations and otherwise do absolutely nothing. All the huge legislative actions did was give money away and import a few million more workers to keep wages low.
Unmentioned in these talking heads' White House scenarios for eithwr a Trump win or a Harris win is a more bipartisan public win, which could actually happen if one party controls the Senate and the other the White House.
So let's imagine a Harris presidency with the GOP gaining control of the Senate. Harris the candidate has shown herself to be politically pliable, essentially campaigning when cornered against her own past far-Left progressive record. Isn't it possible, by extension, that she would be constitutionally pliable as well when faced with a Congress that ultimately would control the fate of her governing record, including her impeachment if she defied constitutional order in the way that Joe Biden has? Carrying the weight as the first woman president, Harris would have to be very mindful of her legacy.
A Trump White House with a Democratic-controlled Congress could prove more problematic, but not impossible. If sufficient numbers of Democrats can recover from their Trump Derangement Syndrome, but remain diligent enough to control his excesses, America could see good things ahead. And the fact Democrats in tight races already choose to be seen as good with Trump makes cooperation possible.
As so often has been the case in critical times in American history, the Framers of our brilliant, enduring Constitution would share in this biggest win of all.
This all fine analysis, analyses I've listened to for my 64 years of voting, and for all the data I have heard, little really matters until the votes are counted. Probably 95 % of polls get it wrong.
Do we have good data on issue polling among Asian Americans? I know we have to be cautious with issue polling in general, and especially among a particular slice of the population, but do their issue concerns overlap with general pop issue priorities? I.E. inflation, economy, etc. Are they as hawkish on illegal immigration as other Americans? Do we have a sense that something perhaps as niche as the Harvard affirmative action case polarized Asian Americans against Dems?
The APIA Data survey I link to included a section on single-issue voters' top priorities, though that by definition means it only captured a small slice of the population. The top issues for those voters included racism (73%), abortion (63%), crime (63%), gun policy (59%), immigration (59%), and the economy (54%). Unfortunately, it doesn't break down *how* they view those issues or whom they're voting for on the basis of their chosen issue.
Other than that survey, I sadly haven't seen much else out there, most likely because it's just hard to gauge the attitudes/beliefs of such a small segment of the electorate.
Interesting, thanks! I think we can probably assume, with gun policy being so highly ranked, that they lean left on most those issues. I'd also be interested in religiosity among Asian American voters.
Hmm. Beyond optimistic. First, the early vote/ballot request has just destroyed traditional Democrat "firewalls" in NC, NV, PA, and AZ. In some ways, these elections are already locked up. The only question is that of margin. In NV for example, in 2020 Ds had an early vote advantage of 40,000 to win by 33,000 in an election rife with fraud. Now? They are basically tied, plus or minus 1400. Once the Trump "underpoll" factors in, and the advantage Trump has in pulling Ds (over Harris's inability to pull any Rs at all except Liz Cheney), Trump will win NV by about 40-60,000 votes. (When John Ralston has give up in NV, you know it's over) Pretty sure Rs took Clark Co early vote yesterday. In GA, the black vote has completely tanked. "Souls to the Polls" was a disaster. You are looking at about a 5-point drop from 2020 in black vote, BUT about a 5-point increase in the white vote. Trump will win GA by 4.5 to 5. NC is not close at all. Despite the claims the hurricane would hit the western party, they are turning out en masse. NC is looking to be Trump +4, again especially given the huge gap in increased white vote/decreased black vote. AZ has been long gone for Harris. Rs have a fluctuating 25,000-35,000 early vote lead but again in AZ many Ds will vote Trump, and very few Rs will be voting Harris. FL is going to come in as I predicted, Trump +10. And there were actually people saying FL and TX would be close. The most interesting is PA, where early on Ds were saying that a "firewall" of 200,000 net early vote advantage would do it. That was quickly moved to 400,000, then 600,000. Yesterday pollster Rich Baris put the number at 800,000. Hard to do when Rs keep gaining in every single new data drop. Trump is on target to carry PA by 150,000 votes even after shenanigans or the "Margin of Fraud." VA is now turning competitive. Harris had to move more $ there. Right now it's about a 5- point race, but as in PA, every single new vote drop has Rs slightly gaining. If this is within 2 on election day, Trump will narrowlly eke this one out too. Both MI and WI are polling Trump +1, MI with the last three state pollsters. (Baris too, as with Trafalgar). WI is about the same, most pollsters having this Trump +1. WI is much more likely to turn out a rural red wave than MI, so it's not unlikely Trump wins the state by 1.5. Significantly, Harris withdrew all advertising from Milwaukee after early ballot requests from the red rurals came in extremely high.
This election today is Trump 312 EVs and a 1 point pop vote victory. But it easily can do a Jimmy Carter and spiral into a 340 EV victory and 1.5 popular vote, because even NY and CA are showing 5-10 point rightward movement in voter registrations. There is not one chance in a million Harris wins this.
I understand this could go either way, and after we have a winner there will be tons of looking back. What I don't get is what will happen if Harris does win.
So far having a divided congress with a D presidency has allowed both parties to do not much except shovel money to their favorite corporations and otherwise do absolutely nothing. All the huge legislative actions did was give money away and import a few million more workers to keep wages low.
Unmentioned in these talking heads' White House scenarios for eithwr a Trump win or a Harris win is a more bipartisan public win, which could actually happen if one party controls the Senate and the other the White House.
So let's imagine a Harris presidency with the GOP gaining control of the Senate. Harris the candidate has shown herself to be politically pliable, essentially campaigning when cornered against her own past far-Left progressive record. Isn't it possible, by extension, that she would be constitutionally pliable as well when faced with a Congress that ultimately would control the fate of her governing record, including her impeachment if she defied constitutional order in the way that Joe Biden has? Carrying the weight as the first woman president, Harris would have to be very mindful of her legacy.
A Trump White House with a Democratic-controlled Congress could prove more problematic, but not impossible. If sufficient numbers of Democrats can recover from their Trump Derangement Syndrome, but remain diligent enough to control his excesses, America could see good things ahead. And the fact Democrats in tight races already choose to be seen as good with Trump makes cooperation possible.
As so often has been the case in critical times in American history, the Framers of our brilliant, enduring Constitution would share in this biggest win of all.
This all fine analysis, analyses I've listened to for my 64 years of voting, and for all the data I have heard, little really matters until the votes are counted. Probably 95 % of polls get it wrong.
Do we have good data on issue polling among Asian Americans? I know we have to be cautious with issue polling in general, and especially among a particular slice of the population, but do their issue concerns overlap with general pop issue priorities? I.E. inflation, economy, etc. Are they as hawkish on illegal immigration as other Americans? Do we have a sense that something perhaps as niche as the Harvard affirmative action case polarized Asian Americans against Dems?
The APIA Data survey I link to included a section on single-issue voters' top priorities, though that by definition means it only captured a small slice of the population. The top issues for those voters included racism (73%), abortion (63%), crime (63%), gun policy (59%), immigration (59%), and the economy (54%). Unfortunately, it doesn't break down *how* they view those issues or whom they're voting for on the basis of their chosen issue.
Other than that survey, I sadly haven't seen much else out there, most likely because it's just hard to gauge the attitudes/beliefs of such a small segment of the electorate.
Interesting, thanks! I think we can probably assume, with gun policy being so highly ranked, that they lean left on most those issues. I'd also be interested in religiosity among Asian American voters.