Has the Anti-Establishment Wave Peaked?

Last year, IPSOS released a fascinating study examining populist attitudes among more than 20,000 respondents globally. The researchers found astounding levels of anti-establishment sentiment in multiple political environments.

For example, as seen below, two in three people around the world last year said their respective country was “in decline” and nearly six in ten people felt their society was “broken.” Likewise, IPSOS researchers found staunch opposition to immigration in many countries and deep suspicion of political and economic elites making decisions for their own benefit.

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The study was conducted ahead of one of the biggest election years in recent times—more than one and half billion ballots were cast across 73 different countries in 2024. And the establishment fell in spectacular fashion in many of these elections.

As John Burn-Murdoch reported in the Financial Times:

The incumbent in every one of the 12 developed western countries that held national elections in 2024 lost vote share at the polls, the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of modern democracy. In Asia, even the hegemonic governments of India and Japan were not spared the ill wind.

Incumbent or otherwise, centrists were frequently the losers as voters threw in their lot behind radical parties of either flank. The populist right in particular surged forward, fueled in significant part by a rightward shift among young men.

The results paint a picture of angry electorates stung by record inflation, fed up with economic stagnation, disquieted by rising immigration, and increasingly disillusioned with the system as a whole.

In a sense, the year of democracy produced a cry that democracy is no longer working, with the younger generation, many voting for the first time, delivering some of the strongest rebukes against the establishment.

The shellacking of the ruling Conservatives in the United Kingdom in July and the return of Donald Trump to the presidency in the U.S. in November (after winning nationally and in all major battleground states) were perhaps the clearest indicators of anti-establishment sentiment in major western societies, along with similar attitudes emerging in South Africa as the African National Congress (ANC) failed to win a majority of seats for the first time since the end of apartheid and even in Japan where the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost sole control of the lower house.

As recent Pew analysis shows, sour views on the economy and particularly inflation contributed the most to global populist sentiment last year. But the economy was not the only anti-establishment concern on voters’ minds. Anger at political corruption was a common theme in the 2024 wave along with deep disenchantment with incumbent parties: “Our surveys have shown that many people feel disconnected from political leaders and institutions. Large majorities in many nations believe elected officials don’t care what people like them think. Many say there is no political party that represents their views well. And large shares say people like them have little or no influence on politics in their country.”

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The big question now is whether this obvious anti-establishment mood among global electorates has hit its peak.

Looking mainly at incumbent governments and upcoming elections in 2025, the answer is clearly no. Joe Biden is leaving office in the U.S. with abysmal public ratings. Justin Trudeau has resigned as Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader in Canada. The victorious UK Labour Party has fallen precipitously with voters during its first six months in office while the anti-immigration Reform UK party has gained substantial ground in recent polls. The main center-right Christian Democratic (CDU) opposition in Germany is poised to emerge on top ahead of snap elections, while the populist-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) looks to be a strong second.

The near-term political forecast is for more populist upheaval, not less.

What about Donald Trump—the ultimate anti-establishment figure? Trump will come into office next week much more popular among voters than in recent years with a narrow governing trifecta that should enable him to implement his populist agenda on taxes, tariffs, immigration, regulation, foreign affairs, and other social issues. Americans currently seem open to his coming shake up of government priorities and policies given their displeasure with the outgoing Democratic administration.

But Trump and the GOP won’t enjoy the safety of a campaign as the anti-incumbent party in a “change” election year and they won’t have any more excuses for not delivering what was promised to voters in 2024. Americans will expect them to fix a lot of economic and social problems that fueled their anti-establishment views—fast and all at once.

Trump himself likely enjoys built-in political cushioning from his own people who will back him and oppose Democrats regardless of how he performs. But those reluctant Trump voters and independents from 2024 may not be so generous in their future evaluations. If prices stay high or overall economic and job conditions decline, voters will blame Republicans. If Trump’s immigration, tariff, or national security plays go sideways, it will be on them—they are now the governing establishment with unified control of the federal government.

The populist-right globally has gained ground in recent elections due to their deft deployment and harnessing of genuine anti-establishment economic and social views among citizens in many different countries. But this does not mean voters will go along with everything populist party leaders try to do, if or when they achieve real governing power.

The internal logic of populist politics, whether on the left or the right, basically demands attacking everything in sight as insufficiently radical and too wedded to the status quo—and this often includes its own promoters, leaders, and party institutions. Anger, cynicism, distrust, and anti-establishment views are not easily allayed once they take hold.