First, I will go on record for the umpteenth time. The race is not close. Trump underpolls an average of 2.1. So just factor that into ANY poll, and Trump is up nationally by 1-2, up in the EC at least to 312 EVs.
Second, Trafalgar did a post debate poll that captures precisely where we are: "Who won the debate?" Harris +13. "Who will you vote for?" Trump GAINED a point and added to his lead (+1.5 now). Regardless of what pundits said, poll after poll was 2:1 that Trump won the debate. EVERY focus group I saw said Trump won the debate, usually 2:1.
Third, I'm surprised, Ruy, that even you keep ignoring these planetary-sized changes in voter registration. Here's another: Yesterday NV REMOVED about 100,000 dead voters/bad address registrations from their rolls. Net change? Rs GAINED 23,000. When you factor in that Trump lost NV by 33,000, and that margin is now down to 19,000--and MANY of those culinary workers and working class Democrats that you correctly ID as a problem for the party, will vote Trump, NV now is moving into "safe" R. AZ is long past safe. The R edge in Maricopa Co. alone is 162,500 and Ds haven't added a net new voter in days. Rs add 200-300 daily.
Finally, there are leaks about both parties internal polls, which show (as you would suspect) Trump up nearly outside the margin of error or margin of fraud in every single swing state. So, for the umpteenth time, mark it down. This will not be a close election, Trump will win the popular vote, and the EC will end up 312-340 depending on how terrible Harris is going forward. But it's fine with me if reasonable insiders such as yourself keep misreading the tea leaves here, because there will be no time to adjust when it becomes clear what the early vote and voter registration #s mean.
I should add that numbers came out of Duval Co. FL today and they matched EXACTLY the NC numbers, which is a combined R gain/D loss off 2020 of 11 points.
I’ve read a few articles about pollsters fixing the Trump voter problem by counting them even when they don’t finish or participate in a survey.
Harris has more high propensity voters that are going to turn out. Trump isn’t getting a bunch of free press as he did in 2016 when he won. Harris is out raising him and has a better ground game. Most of the senate and governor races in swings states have democrats winning.
Polling in Nevada under estimates democrats. Polls had CMC losing her seat . NV has large labor unions. AZ may have a similar issue. High propensity suburbanites voted for Hobbs. No poll showed her winning.
My take Harris is going to win by smaller margins and win the popular vote handily. I think the Hispanic movement is real, but they are mostly located in Florida, TX and CA. So no difference in the EC.
I sincerely hope Ds keep listening to you. Here are the brutal numbers.
*In 2008, Ds went _8.3 for Obama (120,909 or about 20,0000 over the D registration lead in the state
*In 2012 Obama won by 67,806 or 22,000 BELOW their registration lead of 90,187.
*Right now that D registration lead has crashed to 19,000.
*Even using the Obama averages, Trump would win by 10,000 but using the Trump-friendly number, he will win by 38,500. None of this accounts for Trump's lead with Indies or his soaring numbers with Hispanics (over 40^ in almost every poll, some 45%).
The longer Ds cling to this irrational rejection of the inevitable registration dynamics, the less chance they have of winning. Fine by me.
Thank you for your efforts to provide balanced and objective information about this ultra tight election. My sense of it is that Democrats are voting for Harris because they trust the Democratic Party and because Trump terrifies them. The Republicans are voting for Trump because they favor his platform and reject most or all of what the Democratic Party has been advocating and doing for the past 4 years and previously. I don't believe it would have mattered at this point who the Dem Party chose to be the next president; the Dems would have voted for their candidate, and the Republicans would have voted against that person.
I am a left leaning independent voter, and I don't think I will ever again vote for a Democratic presidential nominee.
Working class America is not "delighted" with Harris because far too many white (mostly male) US voters are terrified that our country is becoming a multiracial, multicultural, multi-ethnic, multi-gendered democracy and they have become convinced - thanks to Fox News, talk radio and Trump - that they will lose their social/economic positions in society.
If MAGA means anything at all, it means Make America White Again. This is the real appeal of Trumpism. MAGA swing voters don't care about any policies except how Trump will deport millions of undocumented immigrants and keep black & brown people down.
If Harris loses this election, it won't be because she hasn't run a good campaign or shown she is fit and presidential. It will be because terrified white voters in swing states decided they needed Trump - with all his many faults and undeniable dementia - to protect their white male privileges.
At the beginning of his article Ruy posted some links to some sources for statistics, I'd encourage you to go take a look at them. For the 2020 election he uses Catalyst, generally the most accepted source around with a huge statistical base allowing a close look at demographics. Ruy also uses the NYT, considered by many to be one of, or maybe the, most accurate poll around.
Trump is making huge gains with Black and Hispanic working class voters. Harris is drawing historic numbers of the highly educated and compensated professional managerial class. Facile arguments about race no longer hold water.
Interesting also that often enough it is exactly those white highly privileged folks making the claims.
Forgive my bluntness, but Mr. Steinberger is ridiculous. We are 5 hours from the border. We have a neighbor, chased from his multi generational, family border ranch, over concerns, of the safety of his wife and kids. To play outside, the kids needed armed guards. Their school routinely locked down, in the middle of the school day, when hoards of migrant men wander thru campus. Home burglaries were bad, men pounding on the front door demanding water, were worse.
Our neighbor now makes a 10 hour round trip, twice a week. Ranch hands try to keep the place running. It is not easy. Tons of trash have to be, repeatedly, removed. Cattle choke on trash and wander away, after migrants cut fences. Waterlines are repeatedly broken.
Should the overwhelmingly Hispanic residents need an emergency room, the wait might be all day, because ERs are so overwhelmed by numerous migrants.
Perhaps the only bigger Trump supporters on earth, then the Hispanic rancher and his family, are the Contractors, we have encountered during a remodel. They routinely decry being undercut on jobs, by new migrant arrivals, that operate without safety equipment, insurance, paying taxes or fairly compensated employees. There is not a White person among them, most are Hispanic, a few Asian. They were all born in the US or immigrated legally, decades ago.
Unregulated immigration is destroying their livelihoods and their lives, as they knew them. All, while inflation kills their previously, comfortable living standards. Take a trip to the Texas and AZ border, talk to residents. In many previously Bright Blue areas, one will find an ocean of MAGA hats, and they will not be sitting on the heads of White racists.
What is really ridiculous is to think that Trump would do anything more for his white MAGA base in a new administration than he did for them last time he was president. Remember: His signature accomplishment for his first term was a big tax cut for the very wealthiest Americans. If he gets back in the White House, he will again screw the working class, middle class, the poor by raising their taxes especially if he gets his tariffs enacted. He will again shower enormous favors - more tax cuts - on the wealthy.
You labeled every White Trump voter a racist. I disabused you of that fantasy, with actual facts, and the reply is Trump won't cut taxes? These people are not worried about taxes. They worry their 8 year old son will not return , if he visits his pony, in the back barn, alone. They worry, if their 16 year old daughter has car trouble, and runs into the wrong people, she will end up dead or chained to a bed in a Mexican brothel.
Then they worry about inflation, because Mom and Dad did not drop $300K on small private, liberal arts school, so they could major in Social Justice and work at a non profit, until their trust funds kick in.
I am amazed border residents have not filled the Rio grande with tea, and escrowed their federal tax payments. Talk about taxation without representation. The Biden/Harris administration has forsaken tax paying American citizens, while dropping $75K a year, per migrant, to shelter them in luxury NYC and Chicago hotels.
If people want to vote for Harris, that is their choice, but they should do so, without labeling every Trump voter a racist.
Working class America was not "delighted" with JRB. Texeira has written quite a bit on this topic. KH's biggest problem is that she is part of the current administration and hasn't (yet) found a convincing way to distance herself.
BTW...not doubting your comments regarding society becoming multi-* and that having an impact.
First, I will go on record for the umpteenth time. The race is not close. Trump underpolls an average of 2.1. So just factor that into ANY poll, and Trump is up nationally by 1-2, up in the EC at least to 312 EVs.
Second, Trafalgar did a post debate poll that captures precisely where we are: "Who won the debate?" Harris +13. "Who will you vote for?" Trump GAINED a point and added to his lead (+1.5 now). Regardless of what pundits said, poll after poll was 2:1 that Trump won the debate. EVERY focus group I saw said Trump won the debate, usually 2:1.
Third, I'm surprised, Ruy, that even you keep ignoring these planetary-sized changes in voter registration. Here's another: Yesterday NV REMOVED about 100,000 dead voters/bad address registrations from their rolls. Net change? Rs GAINED 23,000. When you factor in that Trump lost NV by 33,000, and that margin is now down to 19,000--and MANY of those culinary workers and working class Democrats that you correctly ID as a problem for the party, will vote Trump, NV now is moving into "safe" R. AZ is long past safe. The R edge in Maricopa Co. alone is 162,500 and Ds haven't added a net new voter in days. Rs add 200-300 daily.
Finally, there are leaks about both parties internal polls, which show (as you would suspect) Trump up nearly outside the margin of error or margin of fraud in every single swing state. So, for the umpteenth time, mark it down. This will not be a close election, Trump will win the popular vote, and the EC will end up 312-340 depending on how terrible Harris is going forward. But it's fine with me if reasonable insiders such as yourself keep misreading the tea leaves here, because there will be no time to adjust when it becomes clear what the early vote and voter registration #s mean.
I should add that numbers came out of Duval Co. FL today and they matched EXACTLY the NC numbers, which is a combined R gain/D loss off 2020 of 11 points.
I’ve read a few articles about pollsters fixing the Trump voter problem by counting them even when they don’t finish or participate in a survey.
Harris has more high propensity voters that are going to turn out. Trump isn’t getting a bunch of free press as he did in 2016 when he won. Harris is out raising him and has a better ground game. Most of the senate and governor races in swings states have democrats winning.
Polling in Nevada under estimates democrats. Polls had CMC losing her seat . NV has large labor unions. AZ may have a similar issue. High propensity suburbanites voted for Hobbs. No poll showed her winning.
My take Harris is going to win by smaller margins and win the popular vote handily. I think the Hispanic movement is real, but they are mostly located in Florida, TX and CA. So no difference in the EC.
I sincerely hope Ds keep listening to you. Here are the brutal numbers.
*In 2008, Ds went _8.3 for Obama (120,909 or about 20,0000 over the D registration lead in the state
*In 2012 Obama won by 67,806 or 22,000 BELOW their registration lead of 90,187.
*Right now that D registration lead has crashed to 19,000.
*Even using the Obama averages, Trump would win by 10,000 but using the Trump-friendly number, he will win by 38,500. None of this accounts for Trump's lead with Indies or his soaring numbers with Hispanics (over 40^ in almost every poll, some 45%).
The longer Ds cling to this irrational rejection of the inevitable registration dynamics, the less chance they have of winning. Fine by me.
Thank you for your efforts to provide balanced and objective information about this ultra tight election. My sense of it is that Democrats are voting for Harris because they trust the Democratic Party and because Trump terrifies them. The Republicans are voting for Trump because they favor his platform and reject most or all of what the Democratic Party has been advocating and doing for the past 4 years and previously. I don't believe it would have mattered at this point who the Dem Party chose to be the next president; the Dems would have voted for their candidate, and the Republicans would have voted against that person.
I am a left leaning independent voter, and I don't think I will ever again vote for a Democratic presidential nominee.
Are we at a point, where even if Harris begins to attend to the needs of working class voters, it is beyond her ability to win them over?
I don't believe she or her staff are capable of even understanding what those needs are.
Working class America is not "delighted" with Harris because far too many white (mostly male) US voters are terrified that our country is becoming a multiracial, multicultural, multi-ethnic, multi-gendered democracy and they have become convinced - thanks to Fox News, talk radio and Trump - that they will lose their social/economic positions in society.
If MAGA means anything at all, it means Make America White Again. This is the real appeal of Trumpism. MAGA swing voters don't care about any policies except how Trump will deport millions of undocumented immigrants and keep black & brown people down.
If Harris loses this election, it won't be because she hasn't run a good campaign or shown she is fit and presidential. It will be because terrified white voters in swing states decided they needed Trump - with all his many faults and undeniable dementia - to protect their white male privileges.
At the beginning of his article Ruy posted some links to some sources for statistics, I'd encourage you to go take a look at them. For the 2020 election he uses Catalyst, generally the most accepted source around with a huge statistical base allowing a close look at demographics. Ruy also uses the NYT, considered by many to be one of, or maybe the, most accurate poll around.
Trump is making huge gains with Black and Hispanic working class voters. Harris is drawing historic numbers of the highly educated and compensated professional managerial class. Facile arguments about race no longer hold water.
Interesting also that often enough it is exactly those white highly privileged folks making the claims.
Forgive my bluntness, but Mr. Steinberger is ridiculous. We are 5 hours from the border. We have a neighbor, chased from his multi generational, family border ranch, over concerns, of the safety of his wife and kids. To play outside, the kids needed armed guards. Their school routinely locked down, in the middle of the school day, when hoards of migrant men wander thru campus. Home burglaries were bad, men pounding on the front door demanding water, were worse.
Our neighbor now makes a 10 hour round trip, twice a week. Ranch hands try to keep the place running. It is not easy. Tons of trash have to be, repeatedly, removed. Cattle choke on trash and wander away, after migrants cut fences. Waterlines are repeatedly broken.
Should the overwhelmingly Hispanic residents need an emergency room, the wait might be all day, because ERs are so overwhelmed by numerous migrants.
Perhaps the only bigger Trump supporters on earth, then the Hispanic rancher and his family, are the Contractors, we have encountered during a remodel. They routinely decry being undercut on jobs, by new migrant arrivals, that operate without safety equipment, insurance, paying taxes or fairly compensated employees. There is not a White person among them, most are Hispanic, a few Asian. They were all born in the US or immigrated legally, decades ago.
Unregulated immigration is destroying their livelihoods and their lives, as they knew them. All, while inflation kills their previously, comfortable living standards. Take a trip to the Texas and AZ border, talk to residents. In many previously Bright Blue areas, one will find an ocean of MAGA hats, and they will not be sitting on the heads of White racists.
What is really ridiculous is to think that Trump would do anything more for his white MAGA base in a new administration than he did for them last time he was president. Remember: His signature accomplishment for his first term was a big tax cut for the very wealthiest Americans. If he gets back in the White House, he will again screw the working class, middle class, the poor by raising their taxes especially if he gets his tariffs enacted. He will again shower enormous favors - more tax cuts - on the wealthy.
You labeled every White Trump voter a racist. I disabused you of that fantasy, with actual facts, and the reply is Trump won't cut taxes? These people are not worried about taxes. They worry their 8 year old son will not return , if he visits his pony, in the back barn, alone. They worry, if their 16 year old daughter has car trouble, and runs into the wrong people, she will end up dead or chained to a bed in a Mexican brothel.
Then they worry about inflation, because Mom and Dad did not drop $300K on small private, liberal arts school, so they could major in Social Justice and work at a non profit, until their trust funds kick in.
I am amazed border residents have not filled the Rio grande with tea, and escrowed their federal tax payments. Talk about taxation without representation. The Biden/Harris administration has forsaken tax paying American citizens, while dropping $75K a year, per migrant, to shelter them in luxury NYC and Chicago hotels.
If people want to vote for Harris, that is their choice, but they should do so, without labeling every Trump voter a racist.
"Vote for me or I'll call you a racist! Of course, if you do vote for me, I'll still call you a racist, you racist you."
Working class America was not "delighted" with JRB. Texeira has written quite a bit on this topic. KH's biggest problem is that she is part of the current administration and hasn't (yet) found a convincing way to distance herself.
BTW...not doubting your comments regarding society becoming multi-* and that having an impact.
Do you know how ridiculous you look in that stupid hat? Why not just wear one that says "I'm Mentally Ill"?