Farewell to the “Rising American Electorate”
Farewell to the “Rising American Electorate”
The Obama coalition is not coming back.
At one point in the initial rollout of Harris’s campaign, there was much happy (joyful?) talk of getting the band back together—the return of the mighty Obama coalition. The “rising American electorate” would have its revenge on Trump, the Republicans, and their retrograde supporters from declining demographics.
That’s not exactly how it worked out. Instead, Trump won every swing state and the election, carried the national popular vote and made dramatic headway among key demographics that were supposed to buoy the rising American electorate. In short, the rising American electorate didn’t rise, it crashed.
As Democrats dig out from their debacle, it’s important for them to understand just how far away they now are from the salad days of the Obama coalition. In 12 short years, they have lost two of three elections to Donald Trump and huge chunks of support from key demographics, including most of their rising constituencies. They need to face the uncomfortable fact that not only did the Obama coalition not come back, it’s likely never coming back. It’s time for a new coalitional strategy—a strategy that starts with rebuilding their support among working-class Americans of all races and forcefully jettisoning all the political baggage that is preventing them from doing so.
Here are data that illustrate the scale of decline since Obama vanquished Mitt Romney in 2012. For this exercise, I use the Catalist data from 2012, the best retrospective data available, and compare it to the demographic group estimates from AP VoteCast, the best 2024 election data currently available. (It would be preferable to use 2024 Catalist data for this comparison but their data are not yet available.)
Nonwhite voters overall. Obama carried these voters by 64 points; Harris carried them by 34 points. Democratic decline: 30 points.
Black voters. Obama carried black voters in 2012 by an amazing 93 points. Harris managed only a 67-point margin. Democratic decline: 26 points.
Latino voters. Obama carried Latinos by 39 points, Harris by just 12 points. Democratic decline: 27 points. It is interesting that the overall decline since 2012 is quite similar between blacks and Latinos; however, essentially all of the decline for Latinos was post-2016 while the black decline has been more or less continuous.
Working-class (non-college) voters overall. Obama was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the working class as a whole (3-point margin). But Harris lost them solidly by 13 points. Democratic decline: 16 points.
White working-class voters. The traditional trouble spot for Democrats; Obama lost them by 20 points, which goes up to 30 points in this election. Democratic decline: 10 points—which is a substantial and very consequential decline among a huge voter group. However, that decline pales in magnitude when compared to the decline among nonwhite working class voters.
Nonwhite working class voters. Obama cleaned up among nonwhite working-class voters, carrying them by 67 points in 2012. This election the margin was down to 32 points, cutting the Democratic advantage by more than half. Democratic decline: 35 points.
Black working-class voters. Black working-class voters gave Obama a 94-point margin in 2012, actually higher than among their college-educated counterparts. But in 2024, the Democratic margin among the black working class—64 points—was lower than among the college-educated, reversing the class polarity of the black vote. Democratic decline: 30 points.
Latino working class voters. These voters gave Obama a 43-point advantage, much higher than among the Latino college-educated. In 2024 this crashed to a mere 8-point advantage for Harris. Democratic decline: 35 points, two and a half times the decline among the Hispanic college-educated.
Young voters. Obama carried voters under 30 by 23 points; this election Harris managed only a 4-point advantage among this age group to the shock of most, particularly Democratic, observers. Democratic decline: 19 points.
Of course, this is comparing an age group that had a different generational composition in the two elections. But this should provide little comfort to Democrats. The 18-29 year old age group in this election was composed almost entirely of Gen Z voters, supposedly the leading edge of a generational shift that would make the voting pool ever more Democratic. In 2012, the 18-29 year olds who provided Obama’s 23 point margin were all members of the Millennial generation. In 2024, those voters are now entirely contained in the 30-44 year old age group, where Harris eked out only a 3-point advantage. So much for the generational theory of political dominance.
Young black voters. Black voters under 30 gave Obama a 92-point margin in 2012. Harris carried them by only 50 points. Democratic decline: 42 points(!) The decline was almost as large among black voters 30-44.
Young Latino voters. In 2012, Obama dominated Hispanic voters under 30 by 54 points. Harris’s margin among these voters was just 17 points. Democratic decline: 37 points.
Male black voters. While black female voters have also shifted right over time, the shift among black men has been far larger—almost three times the size. In 2012, Obama carried black men by 91 points; Harris’ margin crashed to 49 points in 2024. Democratic decline: 42 points.
Male Latino voters. Latino men have also shifted harder right than their female counterparts. Obama enjoyed a 32-point advantage among Hispanic men in 2012. In this election, Harris was essentially tied among these voters, carrying them by only single percentage point. Democratic decline: 31 points.
So it’s time for Democrats to bid farewell to the rising American electorate. The Obama coalition is gone and in all likelihood it can’t be brought back. It would be a fool’s errand to even try.
It’s time—past time—for a new coalitional strategy for a new populist era. The Trump administration is likely to give them plenty of opportunity for a comeback. They should be ready with a new playbook.
From articles in leftist publications, and from comments to these articles, and from opinion pieces after the election was lost, here is what my wife and I have been seeing as the Democratic position for the past few years:
1. it is anti-white (we're all racists)
2. it is anti-male (we're all misogynists)
3. it is anti-police (they are all racists)
4. it is anti-boomer (we stole all of the wealth)
My wife and I are all four. And Democrats have been telling us loudly and consistently that they don't want us in their party.
Ok. We get it. So after voting for Democrats for 50 years, we voted for Trump.
The Obama coalition is not returning, because neither Obamanomics, Bidenomics, Climate or Immigration policies, benefitted coalition members. Each Obama term, including his 3rd, now concluding, was progressively worse for average Americans, then the one prior.
Americans backed Obama, because he was out first Black President. (Most Americans fail to realize, Collin Powell would have easily been the first Black President, a decade earlier, had his wife not vetoed the idea.) Every American wanted Obama to succeed, even, if they did not vote for him.
Unfortunately, the outcomes, did not match the hype. A decade later, Obamacare has sent healthcare coats soaring. All, while US lifespans, declined. The US Diabetes rate has doubled. Chronic illness now plagues Americans at earlier ages, and on a mass scale, never before seen, in the US. It turns out, we need more than a card in our wallet to achieve health and wellness.
Climate policies have been little more, than massive transfers of taxpayer dollars, to Dem donors.
Mass migration costs, will plague Americans for decades, to say nothing of the 300K unaccompanied minors , now living in bondage, within US borders.
Dem policies have resulted in markedly lower living standards for 80% of the nation. Americans are also less safe and less healthy. The country faces a multitude, of self inflicted problems. For coalitions to continue, their interests must align, and the group must produce results, for all factions. The past 4 years , have been the antithesis of that.