Election Day To-Do List

Beware of partisan propaganda and be patient for actual results.

There are no more polls to read, no more messages to dissect, no more takes to bake. Election Day 2024 is finally upon us—and it couldn’t come soon enough for a nation entirely worn out by two-years of campaigning and arguing about who will be the next president.

At TLP, we’ve tried to take a measured and fair look at all the available evidence and potential scenarios shaping this big day, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both Republican’s and Democrats’ coalitions. We plan to keep up this approach through election night, and in the days after, by avoiding premature assessments of the election and waiting for the results to actually come in and the outcome determined.

As you await the results this evening, here are a few to-do items—beyond the all-important one of getting out to vote (if you haven’t already)—to help keep your head clear and emotions in check:

1. Remember to thank your local poll workers and election officials. They put in countless and often unacknowledged hours ensuring the citizens in their respective communities and states are able to vote and have their votes counted. Many of the people working the polls are volunteers and deserve our appreciation for taking on this important task.

2. Steer clear of partisan propaganda and other false information in the media, particularly on social media. The promotion of false or misleading information on Election Day has always been a concern but it has exploded in the age of social media. The only real solution is to stay off these platforms but a second more realistic option is perhaps: “Distrust and verify.” If you see something on X, TikTok, YouTube, or Facebook that seems outlandish—most likely related to supposed Election Day shenanigans or “vote fraud” or “vote suppression”—remember that the item probably is not real or not presented in full context. At a minimum, it’s wise to apply due skepticism to anything you see or read on social media these days (and on other mainstream or cable outlets) barring further independent confirmation.

3. Find a few trustworthy voices on social media and other sites to follow for confirmed information, actual vote results, and honest analysis. The upside to the internet is the wide array of good and trustworthy voices looking at politics and elections from multiple angles. We’ll be monitoring the X accounts and news feeds of several individuals and organizations that typically offer excellent, real-time coverage. This includes FiveThirtyEight's live blog and their senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich; the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman; the Crystal Ball's Kyle Kondik and Miles Coleman; and Split Ticket's Lakshya Jain. Ex-pollster Adam Carlson has also put together a great list of around 100 experts that he trusts “to deliver accurate and fast results and/or unbiased and context-heavy analysis on Election Night” that is worth checking out. Perennial greats Nate Cohn, Nate Silver, Ron Brownstein, Henry Olsen, and Patrick Ruffini should be on your check-in list as well. Likewise, TLP’s Ruy Teixeira will be on The Washington Post’s election night coverage and on The Free Press Live festivities streaming on X and YouTube. TLP’s Nate Moore is also working the decision desk at News Nation.

4. Look at the live results in key counties rather than listening to pundits drone on about politics. Television will be filled with talking heads yapping non-stop about things that haven’t happened yet or are not entirely clear at any given moment. Rather than sweat over every pronouncement, check out the real-time results in the battleground states and counties—and be patient, it takes time to get these things right. We’ve put together a number of key counties to watch in the presidential race and some important House races as well. TLP’s Michael Baharaeen also provided a two-part examination of trends and voting patterns he’ll be watching on election night.

5. Don’t pay too much attention to demographics in the exit polls and check out AP Votecast. Exit polls have their place, but in recent years they’ve been off in terms of demographic voting patterns (e.g. groups voting in ways that don’t add up to the final results). Real demographic trends will not be confirmed until months after the election with validated voter studies. And definitely don’t pay any mind to early exit poll leaks showing X event going on or Y demographic group voting this way only to see it not confirmed in real time. Once the outcome is known, we like the AP Votecast for more immediate group comparisons given its track record in recent elections and its multi-method approach that covers voters and nonvoters and better addresses the issue of so many Americans now voting early, absentee, or by mail.

6. Don’t let election night coverage get you too wound up. People have different preferences for who or what they like to watch (or not watch) on election night. For our money, it’s best to avoid the partisan hysterics and bloviating on cable and mainstream media and try something a bit more even and calm. PBS News has excellent coverage planned with smart analysts like Amy Walter, Republican strategist Kevin Madden, and Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir joining the always solid anchors on PBS. The BBC also offers a refreshing and non-traditional way to watch U.S. election results delivered without the typical partisan hackery, and with quite pleasant accents. If you can’t avoid the usual mainstream media and cable fare, it helps to turn off the volume on the television and put on some good music as the results come in.

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Although this election cycle has been a painful slog, we should all appreciate our rights as citizens to offer our voices and votes on who should lead the country for the next four years. Regardless of which candidate or party you support, remember that the American form of democracy, warts and all, remains a real historical achievement worth admiring and advancing for ourselves and future generations.

Best of luck to all the candidates and their campaigns today, and thank you to all the public officials and volunteers who help make Election Day work.