Does Harris or Trump Hold the Advantage in the Home Stretch?

Zeroing in on the factors that could decide the winner.

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(Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

With just over a month to go until Election Day, the 2024 presidential campaign remains as close as ever. So far this cycle, both state and national polls show a tight race for president, and it’s a good bet that the final margins will once again be very close. In light of all this, it’s worth examining the developments in the race that could portend a good night for Harris or Trump come November 5.

Factors That Could Favor Harris

A more favorable polling picture

As of today, Harris enjoys a lead over Trump in the national polls of roughly two to three points. More importantly: she also leads in enough swing states to put her over 270 electoral votes. According to New York Times polling averages, if the election were held today, Harris would carry all states in which she is favored as well as the three “Blue Wall” states, Nevada, and North Carolina. Though she would lose Arizona and Georgia—both of which Biden carried last time—this map would still deliver her 291 electoral votes (or 292 if she also wins Nebraska’s Second District) and, thus, the presidency.

Moreover, since replacing Biden as the Democrats’ standard-bearer, Harris’s favorability has risen rapidly, hitting net-positive territory for the first time in more than three years just last week. Meanwhile, Trump’s net favorable rating remains underwater by nine points, with a favorability mired in the low 40s.¹ Trump’s success in 2016 hinged on voters disliking Clinton as much as they disliked him, but the same was not true for Biden in 2020, which was likely a big factor in his win. A similar likeability gap could work in Harris’s favor this time as well.

A possible ceiling for Trump’s support

An under-covered storyline from each of the past two presidential elections has been the fact that Trump’s levels of support were remarkably low nationally (and even in key swing states that he won). In 2016, he earned just 46.2 percent of the popular vote, and four years later, he only improved to 46.9 percent.

This cycle, we’re seeing more of the same. According to national poll averages, even as Trump led Biden for much of this year, Trump’s share of support only hovered around 42–44 percent—and it stayed there even after Harris joined the race and steadily built on Biden’s levels of support. Since RFK, Jr., dropped out of the race, Trump’s support has climbed to 45.8 percent, but this still leaves him shy of his past performance. If he can’t outperform his last two showings, it makes his path to victory in the Electoral College more uncertain.

Democrats’ early voting edge

In the 2020 election, Democrats worked to build a robust early-vote program across the country to help their voters cast a ballot during the Covid pandemic. Not only did developing this infrastructure likely help Biden win, but it also instilled in their voters the muscle memory of filling out their ballot before Election Day. Meanwhile, Trump famously excoriated early voting—specifically, vote-by-mail—putting his party at a significant disadvantage.

Republicans are now trying to course-correct and encourage their voters to cast ballots early, but it remains to be seen whether Trump’s previous attacks on the process may have damaged his supporters’ faith in the process. If so, it means Democrats can run up the score early while Republicans will have to rely on turning out their voters mostly on Election Day.

Image as the “change” candidate

Many voters don’t appear to be fully connecting Harris to their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. In a recent NBC News poll, a plurality (47 percent) said they view Harris as the candidate representing change over Trump (38 percent). The same share of voters said they believed Harris would get the country moving in the right direction compared to 43 percent who said the same about Trump—a smaller margin for Harris but still an advantage. At a time when nearly two-thirds of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, it’s no doubt better to be seen as the agent of change.

“Good enough” for many

Before Biden dropped out, polling regularly showed that voters were open to supporting just about anyone other than him or Trump. Both men underperformed “generic” opponents, and the share of “double haters”—those who disliked both candidates—hit a historic high. After Harris entered the race, that level of double haters began to decline, and today, she appears to be performing as well as a “generic Democrat” might have hoped.

A new CNN poll found that a majority of voters say that Harris is either “exactly” or “close enough” to what they want across several attributes while few say the same about Trump. For instance, 58 percent say Harris has the right temperament to be president compared to just 38 percent who say the same about Trump. Another 52 percent say she has the “ability to understand people like you” while 46 percent agree regarding Trump. In all, this indicates that voters may view Harris as a more ideal candidate overall than they do Trump.

Trump’s baggage

Yes, we’ve heard this one before—and yes, it’s proven to have been an overblown factor in each of the last two elections. But a lot has happened since Trump was last on the ballot. He sought to overturn the results of the previous election, culminating in his supporters’ attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6. He has been indicted on multiple criminal charges, convicted in one case, and found liable of sexual assault in another. A Supreme Court majority that included three of his justices overturned Roe v. Wade, which turned out to be highly unpopular. More recently, Trump has spread baseless conspiracy theories in front of a national audience and simultaneously invited conspiracy theorists into his circle.

Though much of his base is likely locked in to the end, if his behavior over the last four years sways even a fraction of those who voted for him last time (or who voted third party or stayed home) to back Harris, he could be in big trouble.

Factors That Could Favor Trump

The fundamentals

Across a host of electoral factors commonly thought of as the “fundamentals,” the news is pretty favorable for Trump and the Republican Party. For starters, the incumbent president, Joe Biden, remains highly unpopular, with an approval rating hovering around 40 percent. This does not historically bode well for the president’s party come election time. Similarly, more voters today think the nation is on the wrong track than at any time since at least 1989—again, not usually a good sign for the party in power. Consumer sentiment is also at its second-lowest level since 1980, an index that typically correlates strongly with election results favoring the out party.

Harris’s ties to Biden

As noted in the new NBC poll above, many voters see Harris as the candidate of change compared to Trump. However, the poll also gauged how they felt about Harris’s role in the Biden administration, and on this point, she may have some vulnerabilities. Fully 40 percent said they worry that Harris will continue the same approach as Biden, a sign that in the eyes of at least some voters, she may not be able to fully outrun her ties to her unpopular boss.

Greater trust on top issues

Though voters like Harris more on select issues, they also remain convinced that Trump and the GOP are better on the big ones. For instance, Gallup polling shows that Americans trust Republicans over Democrats to handle the country’s “most important” problems and “keep America prosperous.” The aforementioned NBC poll also found that voters by a wide margin think Trump is better on issues relating to immigration and border security. They also favor him on handling the economy and crime, though his advantages on those over Harris are narrower. But notably: the same poll found that the economy remained by far the top issue for most voters, and immigration was not far behind. If Harris loses, this may be a primary culprit.

Apparent gains with key groups since 2020

Another factor that might be of concern to Harris is Trump’s inroads with core groups since the last election—specifically, with traditionally Democratic groups. According to crosstab averages for this cycle, several of them have shifted rightward relative to 2020, including black voters (+17.8 points), Hispanics (+6.9), college degree-holders (+5.2), and voters living in urban areas (+17.7). We’ve seen similar movement with other pivotal groups as well like independents (+6.6), moderates (+9.7), and non-college voters (+5.7), the last of whom has made up a full 63 percent of the vote share in each of the last two elections.

What is unclear, though, is whether Trump’s gains with non-college and non-white voters are coming from lower-propensity voters who are less likely to cast a ballot without a bit of a push—something that may be a problem due to Trump’s lackluster ground game. If so, Harris’s final margins with these groups could end up closer to Biden’s in 2020 than they are right now.

Nostalgia for parts of the Trump era

Recent polling has shown Harris closing the gap with Trump on the issue of which candidate voters trust more to run the economy. However, even in light of this, Trump still enjoys important advantages. An August Financial Times poll found that 42 percent of voters think Trump would “leave them better off financially” compared to just 33 percent who said the same about Harris. Several other polls have shown similar results, including some in which even Democratic voters are unsure that Harris will be better for their pocketbooks.

Similarly, a CBS News poll found that the public thinks by an overwhelming 72–21 percent margin that Trump will get a better handle on border security than Harris would, with fully half saying they worried Harris’s policies might actually increase crossings. Both of these findings are likely welcome news to Trump and of great concern for Harris, as these issues may influence voters’ final choices.

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There are surely other factors that could be taken into account as well, but overall, this offers a good picture of each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses as we enter the final month of the campaign. On the whole, I give Harris an ever-so-slight edge—her proximity to Biden doesn’t seem to be weighing her down as some thought it might, and the differential in candidate likeability is hard to overlook. But Trump has obvious advantages as well, including voters’ trust in him on the top issues and the gains he appears to be making with core Democratic groups.

All this reinforces what many already know: we should be prepared for a very close election.

1. Of course, even despite this, he remains competitive—a sign that many voters who don’t personally like him may vote for him anyway.