"In a recent NBC News poll, a plurality of voters (47 percent) said they view Harris as the candidate representing change..." You'd have to be a special kind of stupid to vote for an incumbent who claims to be for "change."
Well, Ruy, you know my prediction here from last week. Trump already won. Arizona continues to be completely out of reach. Last week Maricopa Co. exceeded 164,000 EDGE over Ds, and every single county in the state, including deep blue Pima, has moved right. The current estimate is that AZ will come in around R+400,000 (R+7) on election day. Florida has been gone forever, and looks to top R+1 MILLION by election day. NC also continues to show additional R gains in registration, and last week in PA Luzerne Co. flipped red for the first time in decades.
*The early voting is NOT on Harris's side. Yes, Ds lead---but they have led in early voting forever, as long as it's been around. What is key is that their overall ballot requests are down between 30 and 80%, massively down in GA, NC, and PA. Second, the share of the early requests in PA are significantly higher for Rs, about an 11 point flip (this 11 point margin comes up again in Duval Co., FL and in NC).
*The actual early VOTING in VA again favors Ds, but nowhere near the margins needed to win. Fairfax turned out, but red counties such as Buchanan were at 100% of their ENTIRE 2020 level on day 1. More important, the NEW VOTER vote is very high (which is an exceptionally good sign for Trump, who, according to Rich Baris's polling, was Trump +17.) About 20"% of the red counties' early votes were new voters. This is the exact same scenario as 2016, but in much higher levels.
*the Teamsters data is crushing for Harris. Simply no way she overcomes that, EVEN if those other factors were going her way. This puts PA, MI, and WI all red.
*I hate polls, but last week big polls moved to Trump, including the NYTimes and Q which had him leading nationally and Rasmussen, where he's up over 3 (I think this is about right). New polling in Virginia (early votes, remember?) showed Trump and Harris tied.
In short, as I predicted last week, the election was over then when the ballot requests for GA, NC, and PA were way too far behind 2020 for Ds to win, let alone cheat. To me the only remaining questions are which of these states also go red: NV, NM, MN, ME, NH, VA? I think at least two. Analysis we did last week suggests Trump will narrowly win NH. The massive decline in D registrations in NV (down from 88,000 lead in 2020 to just 19,000 today) make another 33,000 win there (2020 margin) unlikely, especially if Trump makes union inroads.
Do I get a year's free subscription if my prediction from last week is right?
The Blue nomenklatura was asleep at the switch in 2016, lulled into complacency by analyses such as those of The NY Times, which assured them that Trump couldn’t win. Of course he did win and the Blues spent the next four years insisting that he really lost. They are never going to make the mistake of underestimating Trump again. If the election is anywhere near to close, and it will be, they will find a way to steal it.
By the way, after I posted this I looked at the NC data. Rs are up Rs are up 6 points in the early ballot requests from 2020, Ds are down 11, for s shift of 17 points.
"In a recent NBC News poll, a plurality of voters (47 percent) said they view Harris as the candidate representing change..." You'd have to be a special kind of stupid to vote for an incumbent who claims to be for "change."
Well, Ruy, you know my prediction here from last week. Trump already won. Arizona continues to be completely out of reach. Last week Maricopa Co. exceeded 164,000 EDGE over Ds, and every single county in the state, including deep blue Pima, has moved right. The current estimate is that AZ will come in around R+400,000 (R+7) on election day. Florida has been gone forever, and looks to top R+1 MILLION by election day. NC also continues to show additional R gains in registration, and last week in PA Luzerne Co. flipped red for the first time in decades.
*The early voting is NOT on Harris's side. Yes, Ds lead---but they have led in early voting forever, as long as it's been around. What is key is that their overall ballot requests are down between 30 and 80%, massively down in GA, NC, and PA. Second, the share of the early requests in PA are significantly higher for Rs, about an 11 point flip (this 11 point margin comes up again in Duval Co., FL and in NC).
*The actual early VOTING in VA again favors Ds, but nowhere near the margins needed to win. Fairfax turned out, but red counties such as Buchanan were at 100% of their ENTIRE 2020 level on day 1. More important, the NEW VOTER vote is very high (which is an exceptionally good sign for Trump, who, according to Rich Baris's polling, was Trump +17.) About 20"% of the red counties' early votes were new voters. This is the exact same scenario as 2016, but in much higher levels.
*the Teamsters data is crushing for Harris. Simply no way she overcomes that, EVEN if those other factors were going her way. This puts PA, MI, and WI all red.
*I hate polls, but last week big polls moved to Trump, including the NYTimes and Q which had him leading nationally and Rasmussen, where he's up over 3 (I think this is about right). New polling in Virginia (early votes, remember?) showed Trump and Harris tied.
In short, as I predicted last week, the election was over then when the ballot requests for GA, NC, and PA were way too far behind 2020 for Ds to win, let alone cheat. To me the only remaining questions are which of these states also go red: NV, NM, MN, ME, NH, VA? I think at least two. Analysis we did last week suggests Trump will narrowly win NH. The massive decline in D registrations in NV (down from 88,000 lead in 2020 to just 19,000 today) make another 33,000 win there (2020 margin) unlikely, especially if Trump makes union inroads.
Do I get a year's free subscription if my prediction from last week is right?
Ruy didn't write this post.
The Blue nomenklatura was asleep at the switch in 2016, lulled into complacency by analyses such as those of The NY Times, which assured them that Trump couldn’t win. Of course he did win and the Blues spent the next four years insisting that he really lost. They are never going to make the mistake of underestimating Trump again. If the election is anywhere near to close, and it will be, they will find a way to steal it.
By the way, after I posted this I looked at the NC data. Rs are up Rs are up 6 points in the early ballot requests from 2020, Ds are down 11, for s shift of 17 points.