At this very, very early point, my predictions are going to be conservative.
*Democrats have no shot in NC. Rs slashed another 1600 off the D lead, which at one time was 175,000 and Trump STILL won the state (then won it a second and third time).
*Brian Kemp, while I despise him, will win GA fairly easily. Whatever Georgians think he's don…
At this very, very early point, my predictions are going to be conservative.
*Democrats have no shot in NC. Rs slashed another 1600 off the D lead, which at one time was 175,000 and Trump STILL won the state (then won it a second and third time).
*Brian Kemp, while I despise him, will win GA fairly easily. Whatever Georgians think he's done, he is pretty popular and is certainly no Herschel Walker.
*Beyond that, all I can do is look at the trends: Democrats are jumping ship in seats they normally should win (MI, MN), which should tell you something. Each senate election in the last 3 cycles has gotten closer (last time just .5%. MN is about a D+5 state, but it's not a squishy D-5 like PA was in 2016. Likewise, Collins in ME is the northern equivalent of Kemp.
*What should be troubling is that despite some recent (and in my mind, completely inexplicable wins in NV, AZ, and PA, the voter registration trends are against the Democrats.
PA will be dead even or red by the next election, not D+3 as last time. AZ has already added another 38,000 Rs and continues to add every month. If the candidate is Andy Biggs, this is a likely pickup. He is popular here. Kelly has done nothing. There will be no "anti-Lake" coalition as last time.
NV continues to add Rs. Like ME, its elections get closer and closer.
However, there is a very significant factor looming: the continued deportation of illegals will accelerate. A great deal of Democrat's voter base in NV, NC, AZ and even PA comes from illegals. Not a majority, but a significant number that, if not on Democrat rolls, will be very important.
In short, revisit this next Feb. when Rs have added 5% more in most of these states, Ds have lost 2-3%, and see what the field looks like. But as of today, I'd say R+1 net in 2026.
It is not clear to me that illegals actually vote. If their names are on the rolls, they are voted. So the key for Republicans is cleaning up the rolls, That and not the actual deportations is what will make your predictions correct.
At this very, very early point, my predictions are going to be conservative.
*Democrats have no shot in NC. Rs slashed another 1600 off the D lead, which at one time was 175,000 and Trump STILL won the state (then won it a second and third time).
*Brian Kemp, while I despise him, will win GA fairly easily. Whatever Georgians think he's done, he is pretty popular and is certainly no Herschel Walker.
*Beyond that, all I can do is look at the trends: Democrats are jumping ship in seats they normally should win (MI, MN), which should tell you something. Each senate election in the last 3 cycles has gotten closer (last time just .5%. MN is about a D+5 state, but it's not a squishy D-5 like PA was in 2016. Likewise, Collins in ME is the northern equivalent of Kemp.
*What should be troubling is that despite some recent (and in my mind, completely inexplicable wins in NV, AZ, and PA, the voter registration trends are against the Democrats.
PA will be dead even or red by the next election, not D+3 as last time. AZ has already added another 38,000 Rs and continues to add every month. If the candidate is Andy Biggs, this is a likely pickup. He is popular here. Kelly has done nothing. There will be no "anti-Lake" coalition as last time.
NV continues to add Rs. Like ME, its elections get closer and closer.
However, there is a very significant factor looming: the continued deportation of illegals will accelerate. A great deal of Democrat's voter base in NV, NC, AZ and even PA comes from illegals. Not a majority, but a significant number that, if not on Democrat rolls, will be very important.
In short, revisit this next Feb. when Rs have added 5% more in most of these states, Ds have lost 2-3%, and see what the field looks like. But as of today, I'd say R+1 net in 2026.
It is not clear to me that illegals actually vote. If their names are on the rolls, they are voted. So the key for Republicans is cleaning up the rolls, That and not the actual deportations is what will make your predictions correct.