Good as far as it goes, but what you're missing here is foreign policy. The American century is over; it's only a matter of how hard the landing is going to be. The world is reassembling itself in the absence of American hegemony, and it's a critical time for the United States to find itself a place in it that preserves our security and …
Good as far as it goes, but what you're missing here is foreign policy. The American century is over; it's only a matter of how hard the landing is going to be. The world is reassembling itself in the absence of American hegemony, and it's a critical time for the United States to find itself a place in it that preserves our security and prosperity. Trump is taking a vigorous nationalist approach (including tariffs, which are more than just economic policies), which is both popular and (in my opinion) correct in outline, if disconcerting in detail.
By contrast, the Democrats (starting with Obama) have delivered only random and incompetent opportunism which at this point has actually endangered the country. In particular, their "policies" have hollowed out our military, and their factionalism (over Ukraine and Gaza and Yemen) has destroyed what remained of our deterrence. When China takes Taiwan (any day now), I pray that we will let it pass, because if we fight that war we will lose it. The Democrats need an alternative plan, one that embraces these facts. They are very, very far from even conceiving of one, not least because those in power in the party are fundamentally very unpatriotic people who, to put it bluntly, are deeply invested in their separation from and disdain for ordinary Americans. So its a big, big lift for them. There is no time for them to get their act together. We are in this war, and Trump is the army we've got.
There just needs to be a permanent, stickied comment that mentions the missing foreign policy element whenever Ruy releases these analyses.
Hard disagree on the tariffs, though. They will just speed up the ejection of the dollar from reserve currency status, which will have too many deleterious effects to list. And if implemented in the nonsensical way we just witnessed, certainly, they'll just tear up the economy. Effective protectionism in a world of globalized supply chains looks much more like what we saw under Biden, and involves international political collaboration.
Trump has destroyed that. NATO is gone, and no country in the world will trust us for at least a half-century, and possibly more. Meanwhile, an integrated Asia is on the rise, with a Xi-Putin axis to handle any security concerns in Eastern Europe.
The trade war with China, which the U.S. will almost certainly lose, will be the coup de grace, and in all likelihood, when the history books are written a few decades from now, Trump 2.0 will be seen as the definitive turning point during which the global center of power moved from the West and a U.S.-led order, back to Asia and a Chinese-led order. And most ironically of all, the U.S.--and Trump--will have given it away willingly, somehow thinking that being subordinated to another great power was going to be in its benefit.
Interesting. I think the turning point has already passed; our inaction and internal disorder since the Iraq War has by now made it inevitable. I don't care so much about the US-led order per se, because I think, like all things, it had to come to an end. China has been a superpower for most of world history, we have to live with that. What I'm concerned about is finding a place in the midst of the new order that maintains our safety and prosperity. Probably we are going back to trading blocs, in which case the US should solidify control over the Western Hemisphere, including the Arctic flank (which Trump is doing), and hold sally ports in Europe (Britain), East Asia (Japan) and the Pacific (Australia) (which Trump is not doing).
I am more open-minded about tariffs knowing that most economists came up educationally in an environment that was incurious about the philosophical and historical background of their profession, and ignorant of its critiques. I'd like to have the media find a heterodox economist who has studied tariffs seriously and can respond in detail to the issues you're talking about, instead of the "Orange Man tariffs bad" responses that we are getting by the dozen from economists who are, frankly, part of the problem. Globalized supply chains are not inevitable in a multipolar world; indeed, the whole point of what we're doing recently (even Biden) has been to start de-globalizing at least some of them for strategic purposes. As for the general problem of national prosperity and opportunity for non-professional Americans - if not tariffs, then what? You can't beat something with nothing.
Good as far as it goes, but what you're missing here is foreign policy. The American century is over; it's only a matter of how hard the landing is going to be. The world is reassembling itself in the absence of American hegemony, and it's a critical time for the United States to find itself a place in it that preserves our security and prosperity. Trump is taking a vigorous nationalist approach (including tariffs, which are more than just economic policies), which is both popular and (in my opinion) correct in outline, if disconcerting in detail.
By contrast, the Democrats (starting with Obama) have delivered only random and incompetent opportunism which at this point has actually endangered the country. In particular, their "policies" have hollowed out our military, and their factionalism (over Ukraine and Gaza and Yemen) has destroyed what remained of our deterrence. When China takes Taiwan (any day now), I pray that we will let it pass, because if we fight that war we will lose it. The Democrats need an alternative plan, one that embraces these facts. They are very, very far from even conceiving of one, not least because those in power in the party are fundamentally very unpatriotic people who, to put it bluntly, are deeply invested in their separation from and disdain for ordinary Americans. So its a big, big lift for them. There is no time for them to get their act together. We are in this war, and Trump is the army we've got.
There just needs to be a permanent, stickied comment that mentions the missing foreign policy element whenever Ruy releases these analyses.
Hard disagree on the tariffs, though. They will just speed up the ejection of the dollar from reserve currency status, which will have too many deleterious effects to list. And if implemented in the nonsensical way we just witnessed, certainly, they'll just tear up the economy. Effective protectionism in a world of globalized supply chains looks much more like what we saw under Biden, and involves international political collaboration.
Trump has destroyed that. NATO is gone, and no country in the world will trust us for at least a half-century, and possibly more. Meanwhile, an integrated Asia is on the rise, with a Xi-Putin axis to handle any security concerns in Eastern Europe.
The trade war with China, which the U.S. will almost certainly lose, will be the coup de grace, and in all likelihood, when the history books are written a few decades from now, Trump 2.0 will be seen as the definitive turning point during which the global center of power moved from the West and a U.S.-led order, back to Asia and a Chinese-led order. And most ironically of all, the U.S.--and Trump--will have given it away willingly, somehow thinking that being subordinated to another great power was going to be in its benefit.
Interesting. I think the turning point has already passed; our inaction and internal disorder since the Iraq War has by now made it inevitable. I don't care so much about the US-led order per se, because I think, like all things, it had to come to an end. China has been a superpower for most of world history, we have to live with that. What I'm concerned about is finding a place in the midst of the new order that maintains our safety and prosperity. Probably we are going back to trading blocs, in which case the US should solidify control over the Western Hemisphere, including the Arctic flank (which Trump is doing), and hold sally ports in Europe (Britain), East Asia (Japan) and the Pacific (Australia) (which Trump is not doing).
I am more open-minded about tariffs knowing that most economists came up educationally in an environment that was incurious about the philosophical and historical background of their profession, and ignorant of its critiques. I'd like to have the media find a heterodox economist who has studied tariffs seriously and can respond in detail to the issues you're talking about, instead of the "Orange Man tariffs bad" responses that we are getting by the dozen from economists who are, frankly, part of the problem. Globalized supply chains are not inevitable in a multipolar world; indeed, the whole point of what we're doing recently (even Biden) has been to start de-globalizing at least some of them for strategic purposes. As for the general problem of national prosperity and opportunity for non-professional Americans - if not tariffs, then what? You can't beat something with nothing.