Democrats, Be the Party of Pragmatic Progress
Education polarization—the increasing extent to which education predicts voting patterns—has become an increasingly important political trend affecting political outcomes not just in the United States, but in most Western democracies.
In the United States, the rise of Donald Trump, who accelerated a shift of high-education suburban voters into the Democratic Party, made this phenomenon more salient to political observers. While pundits have blamed college-educated voters for moving the Democratic Party to the left, my research suggests that college-educated voters are in fact deeply pragmatic and that Democrats can maintain strength with college-educated voters without shifting to the left. The Democratic Party’s growing strength with college-educated voters offers the party unique asserts, but to take advantage of them the party should move to the center—not shift left to accommodate these voters.
College-Educated Voters Are Pragmatic
Pundits have blamed college-educated voters, particularly college-educated whites, for pulling the Democratic Party to the left. If Democrats were to move to the center, so the argument goes, they would risk alienating college-educated voters who hold liberal views. When politicians embrace liberal policies, moreover, a desire to cater to college-educated voters is often said to be to blame.
The data do, in fact, show that college-educated voters have more liberal preferences. At Slow Boring, Matthew Yglesias noted that across a range of issues, college-educated voters hold more liberal and more ideologically consistent views than the population in general. Shouldn’t it follow that Democrats should become more stridently progressive to entrench these gains?
While it’s true that college-educated voters are more progressive, they are also more likely to be pragmatic. In other words, these trends do not mean that Democrats will cater exclusively to the preferences of college-educated professionals. In fact, education polarization may actually allow Democrats to change their platform to better cater to the preferences of the voters they need to win without sacrificing their strength with college-educated voters. Democrats can win college-educated voters without lurching to the left because college-educated voters hold pragmatic views about winning elections and holding political power.
New research conducted by Positive Sum Strategies shows that college-educated Democrats say they’re more willing to vote strategically to help advance Democratic policy priorities. In fact, Positive Sum Strategies polling finds that college-educated Democrats are the group most sympathetic to Democrats taking positions to make the party more electorally competitive even if those positions are at odds with their personal views. Far from being a source of ideological extremism, college-educated voters support Democrats adopting policies necessary to win elections.
For instance, Positive Sum Strategies asked which of the following strategies most appealed to Democratic voters:
It’s most important that Democrats run candidates that appeal to Democratic voters and mobilize their base to vote.
It’s most important that Democrats run candidates that talk about moderate issues to persuade swing voters.
Among Democrats as a whole, 48 percent said mobilize the base, while 41 percent said persuade (plus-seven mobilize). Among college-educated Democrats, 43 percent said mobilize the base, while 47 percent said persuade (plus-four persuade). The next question layered on an ideological dimension and included a reference to Donald Trump:
To beat Donald Trump, Democrats should pursue a progressive agenda that will excite non-voters to turn out.
To beat Donald Trump, Democrats should pursue a moderate agenda that will persuade independents and moderate Republicans.
Here, 38 percent of Democrats supported turning out non-voters and 55 percent supported moderation (+17 moderation), while among college-educated, 28 percent preferred turning out non-voters while 68 percent preferred taking moderate stances (+40 moderation).
Positive Sum Strategies also included a series of agree and disagree questions. These questions reveal that college-educated white Democrats are supportive of a strategic approach. For instance, while 82 percent of Democrats support taking moderate stances to beat Trump, the number is an astronomical 93 percent among college-educated Democrats. And while 63 percent of Democrats agree with the statement, “I will only vote for a Democratic candidate when I feel that they truly represent me. If they don’t share my values, I won’t vote for them in the general election,” 53 percent of college-educated Democrats do.
The Culprit Is Not College-Educated Voters, It’s College-Educated Staffers
The real culprit in the Democratic Party’s shift to the left isn’t college-educated voters—it’s the activists and staffers who claim to speak for these anti-Trump voters. College-educated voters, and even “Resistance” activists, prioritize beating Trump and ending Trumpism. These voters are more than willing to vote for more moderate candidates if they believe they can beat MAGA extremists. Indeed, the political science literature shows that extremists lose by mobilizing their opponents’ base. To win, then, Democrats should let MAGA extremists mobilize the Democratic base and focus on winning the moderate and independent voters that will push Democratic candidates across the finish line.
Instead, a subset of party actors and staffers have co-opted these college-educated professionals and claimed to speak for them. They have claimed that the anti-Trump “base” supports a strident, no-compromise view of politics. It’s these staffers and activists pulling the party to the left, not college-educated voters. But Democrats can have the proverbial free lunch: they can retain our strength with college-educated voters while also making robust efforts to win over non-college voters and moderates.
The shift of college-educated voters to the Democratic Party has the potential to be a boon to the party. Consider:
Democratic candidates have been buoyed by the fundraising strength of their college-educated, mobilized base. The fact that Democrats now regularly outraise Republicans due to the power of professionals and liberal billionaires represents a dramatic shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms.
Education polarization also helps Democrats with elite persuasion. The economics profession has shifted in a more liberal direction in the last decade, for instance, as has nearly every elite institution. The business lobby is significantly less mobilized against Biden than it was against Obama. Elites who run these institutions mostly have college degrees, and as a result they are mostly moving towards the Democratic Party.
High-education voters also turn out in non-presidential elections, of which the American political system includes many. This means that Democrats have over-performed in midterms, special elections, and gubernatorial contests in the Trump era.
Most importantly, college-educated voters understand that a winning coalition must include moderate and non-college voters. They support candidates who make efforts to create winning coalitions. Many of these voters are progressive, but they are not strident activists. They are compromise oriented.
To win, Democrats should take advantage of this tendency. Let the GOP be the party of extremism. Democrats should be the party of incremental, pragmatic progress.
Sean McElwee has spent ten years at the intersection of public opinion research and public policy. He founded Data for Progress in 2018 and Positive Sum Strategies in 2021.