Could Hogan Actually Win in Deep Blue MD?
The former governor remains widely popular but faces a 2:1 Democratic electorate in a presidential year with Trump on the ballot.
One of the more intriguing side stories in the 2024 election is the hotly contested battle for the U.S. Senate. Democrats hold a narrow 51-49 seat majority but face the daunting task of defending 23 seats this year compared to Republicans who only have 11 seats to defend.
Democrats start the cycle with West Virginia likely out of their column given the retirement of Joe Manchin. Three other Democratic-held seats (Arizona, Montana, and Ohio) are currently listed as toss-ups according to the esteemed Cook Political Report, including two in states won by Trump. Democrats must defend another four seats (Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) in states Biden won by three points or less in 2020. Cook currently has no Republican-held seats listed as toss-ups, with all of the party’s contested seats occurring in states won easily by Trump.
Democrats really can’t afford to lose any seats this year if they want to hold control of the Senate (which may also require Biden and Harris winning reelection to break a 50-50 tie).
This makes the prospect of Republicans seriously contesting the open seat in Maryland, vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, an important development. Republicans haven’t held a Senate seat in deep blue Maryland for 37 years.
Yet, former Republican governor Larry Hogan has jumped into this race—with the encouragement of former president George W. Bush—as a well-known and well-liked moderate leader with strong favorability across the state. Recent polling conducted by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland shows Hogan with nearly two-thirds favorability statewide including majority favorability in Baltimore City, one of the most heavily Democratic parts of the state.
The Post-UMD poll also shows Hogan leading both potential Democratic candidates—businessman and current 6th district congressman, David Trone, and former prosecutor and current Prince George’s county executive, Angela Alsobrooks—by double digits: 49 percent to 37 percent against Trone and 50 percent to 36 percent against Alsobrooks, with roughly 15 percent undecided in each matchup.
A separate poll just released by The Baltimore Banner also shows a tight race in Maryland, with Hogan leading Alsobrooks, 44 percent to 40 percent, and slightly ahead of Trone, 43 percent to 42 percent, with around ten percent undecided in both races.
Could Hogan really take a Democratic seat this cycle? On the cautious side, the race is still in very early stages and both Trone and Alsobrooks are widely unknown to voters across the state, including among Democratic voters. In contrast, Hogan is an amiable and well-known leader which perhaps explains his current strong standing. Whichever Democrat emerges with the nomination after the May primary will surely consolidate party support over time and make the race much tighter. Likewise, most Democratic voters will be in no mood to give Republicans a chance at a possible Senate majority—more than three quarters of Democrats and 46 percent of independents in the Post-UMD poll prefer to see the party hold control of the Senate.
More importantly, this is a presidential election year in a two-to-one Democratic state with the much loathed Donald Trump standing atop the GOP ticket. Hogan won an impressive reelection victory in 2018, capturing 55 percent of the total vote and nearly one-third of the vote in Baltimore City. But, in 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by a 33-point margin and more than one million votes.
In order for Hogan to win in 2024, he is going to have to convince a lot of Democrats and independent Biden supporters to split their tickets. It’s certainly possible for this to happen and if anyone could pull it off in Maryland, it’s definitely Hogan. For example, in the current Post/UMD poll, Hogan gets support from one third of Democrats against both Trone and Alsobrooks, and wins more than half of independent voters in each respective matchup.
What might lead more Democrats and independents to break ranks and vote for Hogan? Two issues currently come to mind: crime and Israel.
The Post/UMD poll shows the potency of the crime issue for state voters. Thirty-two percent of Maryland voters put crime at the top of the list of biggest problems facing the state with housing coming in a distant second at 19 percent and taxes and education both at 13 percent. Nearly two-thirds of voters statewide say crime in Maryland is a serious problem, ranging from 48 percent in wealthy Montgomery County to 79 percent in Baltimore City.
Although Maryland voters on balance say they mostly feel safe in their own neighborhoods, the crime issue has hurt Democrats in multiple contexts and could work in Hogan’s favor. Eighty-one percent of state voters say “teenagers committing crimes” is a problem in their community while nearly seven in ten say “carjackings” are a problem. Nearly three-quarters of Maryland voters also believe “increasing the number of police officers patrolling communities” would reduce crime, including 70 percent of Baltimore City residents.
The question around support for Israel is also interesting. With no specific opponent at this point, Hogan has been highly critical of Maryland’s other Democratic Senator, Chris Van Hollen, who has emerged as a leading voice against Israel’s approach to Gaza.
In Hogan’s first address as a candidate to the important Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington, he promised to be Israel’s champion in D.C. like retiring Senator Cardin, called on Hamas to release all Israeli hostages, and sharply contrasted his vision for Israel with that of Van Hollen.
As Jewish Insider reported on the event:
Hogan blasted Van Hollen, whom he described as failing to lead and as “one of the most hostile voices against Israel in the entire United States Senate.” The Maryland senator has argued that Israel is violating international law and that the U.S. should suspend arms sales unless there are changes in Israel’s humanitarian efforts.
“At this critical moment, Maryland needs a pro-Israel champion in the United States Senate who will stand up and fight for our closest and most important ally,” he said.
This broadside against Van Hollen comes on top of a letter from 70 cross-denominational rabbis in Maryland decrying the Senator’s rhetoric against Israel.
Of course, come fall Larry Hogan won’t be running against Chris Van Hollen and the Israel-Gaza war may have faded in intensity and importance as an issue. But as with crime, support for Israel could remain a potent wedge issue that allows Hogan to cleave more Democrats and independents away from straight ticket voting. Hogan clearly intends to litigate the issue in this manner against either of his Democratic opponents as recently highlighted in a Wall Street Journal op-ed:
Both my potential Democratic opponents in this race—Rep. David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrook—have similarly demonstrated that they wouldn’t adequately support Israel. Each has demanded a cease-fire. Pushing for an immediate cease-fire is tantamount to urging Israel’s surrender, as it would leave Hamas intact to attack again in the future. The Council on American-Islamic Relations—whose executive director said he was “happy to see” the atrocities of Oct. 7 and whose Maryland director has compared Israel to Nazi Germany—applauded Mr. Trone’s call for a cease-fire in Gaza.
By contrast, my stance is this: We all want the violence to end, but the way to do so is to force Hamas terrorists to release every hostage, to surrender and to be held accountable for their crimes. As governor, I faithfully stood with Israel, including by signing an executive order prohibiting agencies and departments from entering into contracts with any business that boycotts Israel.
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore last week—after the cargo ship Dali plowed into it—presents another wild card in the state. Unlike other national Republicans and right-wing media figures who were quick to use the disaster to score points against Maryland’s political leaders, Hogan (along with other state Republicans) reached out immediately to Gov. Wes Moore to offer his assistance and said he would push the GOP to support federal funding for the rebuilding of the bridge. Hogan expressed his desire to do what is necessary to help the state, particularly the longshoremen affected by the shut down of the port:
“It’s going to affect people’s jobs,” Hogan said.
[Scripps reporter] St. George asked Hogan his thoughts on whether the government should play a role in supplementing the paychecks of wages lost by the Port of Baltimore being closed for an extended period of time.
“I think we got to take a look at those longshoremen and the people at the port who may lose their jobs or not be paid for a while,” Hogan said.
“I have already reached out to a number of Senate leaders,” Hogan added.
Whether these sincere overtures by Hogan are enough to persuade state Democratic voters that another Republican in the U.S. Senate will be good for Maryland, and the long-term future of the Port of Baltimore and the surrounding region, is an open question.
At this early stage of the election, with many political twists yet to come over the next seven months of the campaign, former governor Hogan has proven popularity in Maryland and clear temperamental differences and ideological criticisms of former president Donald Trump that should play to his advantage in the heavily Democratic state.
Control of the U.S. Senate may ultimately hinge on Hogan’s ability to turn these advantages and possible issue schisms among Democrats into a mathematically plausible way of getting enough Joe Biden voters to split their Senate votes in Maryland—a tall but not impossible order.