I still have some hope that, if one of the two parties is willing to cut off its extremists, downplay cultural issues in favor of economic populism, and poach millions of voters from the opposite party, they can win on the scale of Obama in 2008. If they keep it up, they can win on that scale more than once. It's tragic that all the current incentives go against that.
It's tragic that when we seem to need federalism the most, no one is talking about it.
I think a lot of the heat and friction in our current politics comes from both parties wanting to force their policy preferences on the whole country. After The Great Sorting, people have physically relocated themselves to be around people who share their policy and cultural preferences, and federal politics seems premised on either side thinking that they should be able to upend the voluntarily chosen preferences of half their compatriots.
My radical reform idea: grant cities with over 150k people the ability to become a city-state with slightly different apportionment rules, e.g. they get one senator and one congressman, and their votes count for .5 of a vote in the electoral college. People in red state cities are just like people in blue state cities - lots of "in this house" signs, pride flags, etc., why not let their votes matter instead of diluting them in a sea of red? It would also solve the issues in states like Pennsylvania where there are radically different political cultures in the cities and rural areas where rural voters feel disenfranchised because their votes are diluted by the massive city populations.
As bad as this year's choices are -- worse even than 2016 and 2020 -- I find it hard to imagine that voters aren't fed up with Democrats' inflation, lies, incompetence and lawfare and willing to say "enough" either by voting against the clueless Kamala, or just sitting it out.
It's not so much that a majority embraces the drama of DJT, but rather that a majority has had it with the Biden/Harris status quo, loss of national prestige on the world stage and, more personally, loss of buying power in the grocery store.
It is said that voters get more serious about the candidates and the issues as the election draws closer. That is more than can be said of the elusive Harris and her over-managing handlers.
There is a giant fork in the road leading to the American future. On one side is the path towards a multiracial, multicultural, multi-ethnic, multi-gendered more inclusive democracy. The other path leads towards a white male supremacist Christian Nationalist kleptocracy and the end of American democracy.
The near 50/50 national presidential election results reflect the fact that close to half the country is thoroughly dug in against becoming a more inclusive and tolerant nation. They appear quite willing to engage in widespread voter suppression, gerrymandering, cheating and hoping the US Supreme Court and/or a Republican majority Congress will tilt the result in their favor. And if they don't get the outcome they demand, many are willing to engage in violence - next time probably far worse than Jan 6, 2021.
To paraphrase Lincoln: We are in a house divided and we are struggling to survive. The only ones who benefit are the very wealthy and foreign adversaries like Putin, Xi, Iran and N Korea.
1) Blue states are losing population like crazy. CA lost nearly a million, NY if bleeding people, and so is Illinois. This translates to significant EC losses in 2030. Likely between 15-20 to the red states.
2) Although it "may" be a factor of this population change, I don't think so: Rs are VASTLY outregistering Ds. This is the result of a massive GOTV effort/registration effort by Lara Trump and it's working. I've documented here the changes in AZ, where as of yesterday Rs marched to a 163,000 lead in that county alone (whole state lead was only 130,000 in 2020). And you can watch on the SoS site as Rs net gain more daily. The same is seen in PA, where Rs out-registered Ds by almost 20,000 in the last few weeks. Or FL, which will very soon have an R lead of 1 MILLION. This is occurring in all states where we can track registrations--IA, NV, OH, and even blue states like NM and CA.
3) There are good arguments that the Census Bureau cheated the red states out of between 10 and 20 EVs in the last census by significantly under counting them. That means that a real, true count might change the EC not by 15 or 20, but by 25 or more.
It's true the population may be roughly evenly divided, but you can mark this down. The EC will not be "close" any time in the near future. Moreover, the "populist" fusion of RFK, JR. promises to make a new GOP that continues to suck huge #s from Ds in the form of working class/freedom-loving (pro-Crypto, pro-fam, anti-Big Pharma, anti-Big Bank) that the Ds simply cannot compete with.
We have no chance of maintaining democracy if the Electoral College remains the way we select presidents. It's very hard to envision a plausible scenario that allows the EC to be abolished. So we may just be f***ed
I still have some hope that, if one of the two parties is willing to cut off its extremists, downplay cultural issues in favor of economic populism, and poach millions of voters from the opposite party, they can win on the scale of Obama in 2008. If they keep it up, they can win on that scale more than once. It's tragic that all the current incentives go against that.
It's tragic that when we seem to need federalism the most, no one is talking about it.
I think a lot of the heat and friction in our current politics comes from both parties wanting to force their policy preferences on the whole country. After The Great Sorting, people have physically relocated themselves to be around people who share their policy and cultural preferences, and federal politics seems premised on either side thinking that they should be able to upend the voluntarily chosen preferences of half their compatriots.
My radical reform idea: grant cities with over 150k people the ability to become a city-state with slightly different apportionment rules, e.g. they get one senator and one congressman, and their votes count for .5 of a vote in the electoral college. People in red state cities are just like people in blue state cities - lots of "in this house" signs, pride flags, etc., why not let their votes matter instead of diluting them in a sea of red? It would also solve the issues in states like Pennsylvania where there are radically different political cultures in the cities and rural areas where rural voters feel disenfranchised because their votes are diluted by the massive city populations.
As bad as this year's choices are -- worse even than 2016 and 2020 -- I find it hard to imagine that voters aren't fed up with Democrats' inflation, lies, incompetence and lawfare and willing to say "enough" either by voting against the clueless Kamala, or just sitting it out.
It's not so much that a majority embraces the drama of DJT, but rather that a majority has had it with the Biden/Harris status quo, loss of national prestige on the world stage and, more personally, loss of buying power in the grocery store.
It is said that voters get more serious about the candidates and the issues as the election draws closer. That is more than can be said of the elusive Harris and her over-managing handlers.
There is a giant fork in the road leading to the American future. On one side is the path towards a multiracial, multicultural, multi-ethnic, multi-gendered more inclusive democracy. The other path leads towards a white male supremacist Christian Nationalist kleptocracy and the end of American democracy.
The near 50/50 national presidential election results reflect the fact that close to half the country is thoroughly dug in against becoming a more inclusive and tolerant nation. They appear quite willing to engage in widespread voter suppression, gerrymandering, cheating and hoping the US Supreme Court and/or a Republican majority Congress will tilt the result in their favor. And if they don't get the outcome they demand, many are willing to engage in violence - next time probably far worse than Jan 6, 2021.
To paraphrase Lincoln: We are in a house divided and we are struggling to survive. The only ones who benefit are the very wealthy and foreign adversaries like Putin, Xi, Iran and N Korea.
Oh brother. You made me laugh out loud.
"Tight as a tick" elections (ugh, sorry to quote Dan Rather) yet the msm coverage is a Democratic blowout. Go figure.
Absolutely right in many respects. However . . .
1) Blue states are losing population like crazy. CA lost nearly a million, NY if bleeding people, and so is Illinois. This translates to significant EC losses in 2030. Likely between 15-20 to the red states.
2) Although it "may" be a factor of this population change, I don't think so: Rs are VASTLY outregistering Ds. This is the result of a massive GOTV effort/registration effort by Lara Trump and it's working. I've documented here the changes in AZ, where as of yesterday Rs marched to a 163,000 lead in that county alone (whole state lead was only 130,000 in 2020). And you can watch on the SoS site as Rs net gain more daily. The same is seen in PA, where Rs out-registered Ds by almost 20,000 in the last few weeks. Or FL, which will very soon have an R lead of 1 MILLION. This is occurring in all states where we can track registrations--IA, NV, OH, and even blue states like NM and CA.
3) There are good arguments that the Census Bureau cheated the red states out of between 10 and 20 EVs in the last census by significantly under counting them. That means that a real, true count might change the EC not by 15 or 20, but by 25 or more.
It's true the population may be roughly evenly divided, but you can mark this down. The EC will not be "close" any time in the near future. Moreover, the "populist" fusion of RFK, JR. promises to make a new GOP that continues to suck huge #s from Ds in the form of working class/freedom-loving (pro-Crypto, pro-fam, anti-Big Pharma, anti-Big Bank) that the Ds simply cannot compete with.
We have no chance of maintaining democracy if the Electoral College remains the way we select presidents. It's very hard to envision a plausible scenario that allows the EC to be abolished. So we may just be f***ed
EC is the ONLY protection against tyranny. Founders were right