Battleground Montana
GOP control of the Senate likely hinges on Jon Tester's ability to defy the odds.
Republicans are clear favorites to win the U.S. Senate in November. Practically guaranteed to flip Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat, the GOP is turning west to Montana for their majority-making win. Despite a formidable Democratic incumbent in Jon Tester, Montana was a Trump +16 state four years ago and is the party’s best bet for that crucial 51st seat.
First, let’s look at the fundamentals. As recently as 2012, the Senate was littered with red-state Democrats. That year, Democrats won in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, and West Virginia—all with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Twelve years later, these electoral over performers are a dying breed. Claire McCaskill, Heidi Heitkamp, and Joe Donnelly all lost in 2018, despite a blue wave. Red-state hopefuls in 2016—like Evan Bayh and Jason Kander—came up short, dragged down by the top of the ticket.
In 2020, Senate Democrats poured hundreds of millions into South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa—only for star recruits to run even with Biden. This ever-increasing alignment between presidential and down-ballot results highlights just how steep a climb Tester faces this cycle.
Tester’s 2012 plurality win, while impressive, is no sure sign that he will again triumph in a presidential year. The 2020 Montana Senate race offers more recent evidence: popular two-term Governor Steve Bullock lost to Republican Steve Daines by double digits. Bullock did outrun Biden, but not by nearly enough.
The above map compares Tester’s 2018 margins to Bullock’s 2020 margins. Every county shifted red between the two races, despite Bullock winning 19,000 more votes than Tester. How come? Tens of thousands of Republicans who sat out the midterms showed up to vote for Trump—and subsequently voted down the line for GOP candidates, thus dooming Bullock.
Therein lies the brutal math for Tester: facing presidential year turnout, Tester will have to convince a significant portion of rural, white Trump supporters to split their tickets at a level that is exceedingly rare these days. Furthermore, Montana is the likely tipping point for the Senate which nationalizes the race and again ratchets up the difficulty for Tester.
Nevertheless, Tester is not going down without a fight. His approval ratings remain sky high. He has bucked the Biden administration on high-salience issues like immigration and his campaign will raise hundreds of millions of dollars. If anyone can defy the odds, the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is not a bad bet. But, even with a strong over performance, high polarization in a high turnout year might hold Tester short of a fourth term.
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John Tester, like Biden, claims to be a moderate, and then votes like Squad member, minus the lip gloss. Tester has been around look enough to know Biden's spending was going to spike inflation.
3 1/2 years later, groceries are up 40% and gas 50% from 2019, at the beginning of driving season. Montanans rarely utilize public transportation. The State is too vast and sparsely populated. Gas and diesel are also used on farms and ranches in vast quantities, making the price much more important to Montanans, then New Yorkers, but Tester still votes like AOC.
Few states have been harder hit by drugs than Montana, yet Tester has never once asked Biden to close the border. John welcomes Biden's 9 million unvetted migrants with open arms. Even as they drive drug supplies up, and prices down. Tester doesn't care about Montanans that OD. He is a good Progressive first.
As a farmer, Tester knows EVs are not coming to fields soon. A tractor or combine can be refueled by a fueling truck in the middle of a field, several miles long. EV chargers are harder to come by. The notion of EV semi trucks moving grain and livestock, would risk the US food supply, send grocery prices even higher and level all farmers economically.
Moreover, Tester knows if Biden has a 2nd term, he will purposefully drive the price of gas up, to juice EV sales and to lower consumption. Gas up 50% in Montana is bad enough, send Joe and John back to DC, and it could easily be up, 100% next year.. Tester is a dyed in the wool Progressive, that feigns being moderate each election year. Montanans shouldn't fall for the con again.
"...his campaign will raise hundreds of millions of dollars..."
Democrats are the party of billionaires and ultra rich, so they think every election is for sale. Running phony campaign ads is far less effective than grassroots get-out-the-vote efforts.