Are Young Men Really Going to Vote for Donald Trump?
It would be historic if it happens.
For the past two decades, young voters have been a reliable vote for Democratic presidential candidates. The 2024 election will be no exception, with a sizable number of polls showing Harris winning the youth vote overall, if by somewhat smaller margins than past Democratic nominees. There is, however, one crucial caveat: Polls are showing Trump tied with Harris or even leading with young male voters.
But which polls should we trust? In The New York Times, Nate Cohn reviewed recent polling to show that in five of seven high-quality polls young men are leaning right, sometimes by large margins. The NYT/Siena poll has Trump up with young men by 17 percentage points. But Harvard’s Institute of Politics poll, conducted among young adults, shows Harris up by an even larger margin.
What should we believe?
The political evolution of young women has followed a clear and explicable trajectory, but for young men the picture is far murkier. Gallup polls reveal a precipitous decline in Democratic identity among young men over the past decade, but there is not much evidence that they have become much more conservative. Rather, the defining characteristic of young men is a mutual political disaffection—they don’t much care for Republicans or Democrats. A poll we conducted last year found that nearly four in ten young men had a negative view of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
But many young men seem somewhat drawn to Trump. Far more than young women, young men appear to enjoy Trump’s schtick and his constant disregard for basic conventions of behavior. In several interviews we’ve done, we have heard many young men describe Trump as entertaining. His crass “locker-room” comments—such as talking about Arnold Palmer’s genitalia or referring to Gov. Tim Walz as “Tampon Tim”—reflect the way lots of young men think and talk. Most young men believe that Trump is not a conventional politician, and many see his willingness to say and do things that upset the political establishment as refreshing.
Of course, this doesn’t mean young men endorse Trump's policies or embrace his worldview, but he does have an advantage over Harris in who is looking out for men. A recent Pew poll finds that young men are much more likely to say Trump’s policies rather than Harris’ policies will benefit men. What’s more, young men care far more about the state of the economy than anything else, and most voters believe the economy is in rough shape.
I’m inclined to believe that Trump will do well with young men in 2024; certainly, he is likely to improve on his 2020 performance, when he won 41 percent of men aged 18 to 29. And if he does not win an outright majority of young male voters, he will probably come close.
If Trump falls short, it will likely be due to the fact that young men tend to be less reliable voters, especially those without a college degree. The polls show this. Pew found that half of young Harris supporters are extremely motivated to vote, compared to only about one-third of young voters supporting Trump.
Even in high-turnout elections like the 2024 one is shaping up to be, plenty of Americans will abstain. In 2020, 51 percent of young men did not vote, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. But this does not mean these nonvoting young men do not have strong feelings about the state of American politics or the direction of our country.
Whatever the exit polls end up revealing, it’s important to remember that they tell us nothing about those who do not vote or have not yet reached voting age. This matters because the political divide could be potentially larger among less engaged voters. The most Trump-friendly young adults—men, those without college degrees, and the youngest members of this age cohort—will also certainly be underrepresented in the electorate. There is evidence that the gender gap is even wider among the youngest adults—men in their late teens and early 20s are more right-leaning than those even a few years older. In a poll conducted by the Survey Center on American Life this fall, men ages 18 to 24 were far less likely to identify as feminist and liberal than those ages 25 to 29. Cohn’s recent analysis suggests a similar pattern. In swing states that collect voter-registration status, young men are one point more Democratic than Republican. But young men who registered in the last 12 months are registering as a Republican over a Democrat by a margin of six points.
Early partisan attachments are malleable, but there’s a good reason to believe that the worldview of young men is less aligned with the current values and priorities of Democrats. Compared to their female peers, young men have very different views about how the world treats women. A recent Pew analysis of government polling data found that most teen boys today do not believe women face significant obstacles in seeking political office, getting hired in top jobs, or obtaining equal pay for equal work.
It’s difficult to imagine that these views would be welcome in today’s Democratic Party. It’s an opening that Republicans can exploit, and it may be that their current GOP nominee already has. The Young Men’s Research Initiative found that Republicans have outspent Democrats on outreach to young men by a margin of 10 to 1.
Cohn suggested that the magnitude of the divide between young male and female voters would make it one of the most notable political developments this year. He writes:
If this enormous gender gap among young voters holds up, it will be one of the most important developments of the election season, one that would at once clarify a surprising trend and perhaps even change how we understand gender and cultural dynamics in America today.
Regardless of the election’s outcome, the trajectories of young men and women appear less aligned than perhaps they have ever been. The political consequences of this growing divergence will be immediate, but the societal repercussions may be felt for years.
Daniel A. Cox is the director of the Survey Center on American Life and a senior fellow in polling and public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute. He is a contributor to 538 and Insider and writes the newsletter American Storylines.
Anything can happen, but so far it's a pipe dream that young men voting will "fall short." With the GOP, so far between 20% and 25% of ALL early voters are first time/low propensity voters. This would be many of those young men. They are coming out for Trump like crazy. Second, the exodus is real. You can see not just thoughtful liberals like Ruy saying this but the crazies are already calling them "Nazis." (A sure way to win them back). In particular, Trump will take a good 20% of the black male vote---it may be much higher, and polls so, but no pollster will go out on a limb because in the past that cohort has over-polled. But speaking of overpolling, Trump overpolls by 2.1%, so whatever the numbers for him, they are low---in ALL categories, including young men.
Is it possible that the younger generations are starting to believe what they see, as opposed to what they read/hear?
Why are all these minorities supporting a racist, don't they know, why are they mimicking his dancing, and they look happy? Why are all these mothers and grandmothers supporting a misogynist, don't they know? Why didn't the Biden admin consistently and strongly denounce defund the police, sure anything run by humans can be improved, but less police is better, not in my neighborhood? Why was the economy better for me prior to COVID during his first term? Why did Biden tell me all those jobs that were lost because of lockdowns, etc, that came back after COVID, were created by his administration without the proper acknowledgment, how dumb do they think we are? Why, would I ever endorse men competing in women's sports and occupying women's spaces, my sister just lost out on a scholarship for goodness sakes? Why, on God's green earth, would I seek to confuse and ruin children's lives, by supporting gender affirming care for minors (Kamala doesn't support that, really, see title IX changes, can't tell parents they are playing the pronoun game), surely with nearly the entire world and half the states banning it, says something? Why is the DEI this administration has pushed to all aspects of government including the military antithetical to meritocracy, don't we always want the most qualified person for something, I'm so sick of being told to see everything through the prism of race, I thought they liked MLK? Ok, I get it, you think he's a threat to Democracy, but Hitler, really, again, how dumb do they think we are? Last I looked, his justice department wasn't working with local prosecutors to jail political threats, on 'Trumped' up charges, I'm sorry who was the victim in the NY case that made this worthy of spending tax payer money on?
And on, and on, and . . .
Rejoice always, pray unceasingly and in everything give thanks!