There won't be a tie. That is Democrat hopium. Trump is solidly now (2 point) ahead in PA, which means in reality he is ahead more than that as he ALWAYS underpolls by 2.1 across two previous elections. He is ahead in 3/4 most recent MI polls---again, the under polling means this is pretty safe. We have run county by county analysis of WI, and Trump will carry that by minimum 40,000, max maybe 4 points. This means that Trump is way over 279. We will know more about NV soon, but the most recent early ballot #s in NC, Duval Co., FL, PA and GA show that Democrat early ballot requests are down 80 to 90% from 2020 (Biden carried these by 60%) and early vote constituted 2/3 of all votes, so it's safe to say that the Democrat vote in this area will be down massively, perhaps in the range of 5-7 million nationally. Moreover, the return rate of those early ballots---while still a majority D ballots---have a higher margin of Rs and lower margin of Ds than 2020, meaning that 5-7 million might be a conservative estimate.
Trump won't win New York, but the very fact that yesterday a poll came out with him UP .03 in NY is shocking. It means, yes, NJ is in play and that Harris will do well to get better than 10 in NY.
All of these indicators mean that the traditionally blue states of MN, VA, ME are all in play and on the table. Recent steam broilers union unofficial endorsement of Trump, the non-endorsement (but real) endorsement of Trump by the Teamsters, and the heavy support he is getting from the culinary union all suggest that every single pollster is UNDERESTIMATING his strength even more.
Last example: With the so-called "81 million votes" in 2020, Biden won AZ by 11,000. At that time AZ was R+130,000 registrations statewide. Today, JUST in Maricopa Co. and Yavapai Co., after massive shifts, Rs are +200,000 just in those two counties. My estimate is that AZ will be R+400,000 on election day, FL will be R+very close to 1 MILLION on election day. NC will be under 150,000 D (Trump won 2x with double that numbers of Ds).
So a reality needs to sink in that whatever garbage the polls are humping out, it's nowhere close to the actual, measurable, REAL evidence on the ground. This will be a 2016 shock, only worse.
The United States cannot remain even a partial democracy if we do not get rid of the Electoral College. And yet doing that requires the near impossible: either a Constitutional Amendment (zero chance of that ever passing in today's polarized country), or else more states agreeing to commit their EC representatives to vote however the national vote total goes. Why would any swing state ever agree to that?
What is the point of this. We’ve known for some time that if it goes,to the House she loses. I’m very much for her but I don’t think,she will make it. But I really can’t figure out what this set of essays is intended for. So far as I can see the last several have been exercises in the deeply,obvious’
There won't be a tie. That is Democrat hopium. Trump is solidly now (2 point) ahead in PA, which means in reality he is ahead more than that as he ALWAYS underpolls by 2.1 across two previous elections. He is ahead in 3/4 most recent MI polls---again, the under polling means this is pretty safe. We have run county by county analysis of WI, and Trump will carry that by minimum 40,000, max maybe 4 points. This means that Trump is way over 279. We will know more about NV soon, but the most recent early ballot #s in NC, Duval Co., FL, PA and GA show that Democrat early ballot requests are down 80 to 90% from 2020 (Biden carried these by 60%) and early vote constituted 2/3 of all votes, so it's safe to say that the Democrat vote in this area will be down massively, perhaps in the range of 5-7 million nationally. Moreover, the return rate of those early ballots---while still a majority D ballots---have a higher margin of Rs and lower margin of Ds than 2020, meaning that 5-7 million might be a conservative estimate.
Trump won't win New York, but the very fact that yesterday a poll came out with him UP .03 in NY is shocking. It means, yes, NJ is in play and that Harris will do well to get better than 10 in NY.
All of these indicators mean that the traditionally blue states of MN, VA, ME are all in play and on the table. Recent steam broilers union unofficial endorsement of Trump, the non-endorsement (but real) endorsement of Trump by the Teamsters, and the heavy support he is getting from the culinary union all suggest that every single pollster is UNDERESTIMATING his strength even more.
Last example: With the so-called "81 million votes" in 2020, Biden won AZ by 11,000. At that time AZ was R+130,000 registrations statewide. Today, JUST in Maricopa Co. and Yavapai Co., after massive shifts, Rs are +200,000 just in those two counties. My estimate is that AZ will be R+400,000 on election day, FL will be R+very close to 1 MILLION on election day. NC will be under 150,000 D (Trump won 2x with double that numbers of Ds).
So a reality needs to sink in that whatever garbage the polls are humping out, it's nowhere close to the actual, measurable, REAL evidence on the ground. This will be a 2016 shock, only worse.
It would be, I think, unwise and undemocratic to dump the Electoral College.
https://youtu.be/EW4Ql5bsjKU
The United States cannot remain even a partial democracy if we do not get rid of the Electoral College. And yet doing that requires the near impossible: either a Constitutional Amendment (zero chance of that ever passing in today's polarized country), or else more states agreeing to commit their EC representatives to vote however the national vote total goes. Why would any swing state ever agree to that?
I strongly disagree. The Electoral College is one of the last strongholds of democracy. https://youtu.be/EW4Ql5bsjKU
What is the point of this. We’ve known for some time that if it goes,to the House she loses. I’m very much for her but I don’t think,she will make it. But I really can’t figure out what this set of essays is intended for. So far as I can see the last several have been exercises in the deeply,obvious’